215
FXUS61 KOKX 171746
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves off the coast today, with a large high pressure
ridge gradually building across tonight. The high settles over the
area Tuesday and Tuesday night and remains into Wednesday. A fast
moving frontal system moves across Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure begins to build back in on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
this afternoon and shift offshore by late in the day. Steadier
rainfall will be limited to eastern LI into early afternoon.
Still a chance of showers elsewhere during the daytime as an
upper trough axis remains to our west. Breaks of sunshine
developing mainly west of LI and CT, and temperatures will
continue to run above normal with high temperatures mostly
55-60.
The upper level trough axis doesn`t really get through until 06z
or shortly thereafter, so still can`t rule out a shower over CT
or LI this evening. Further clearing should ensue quickly from
west to east behind the passage of the trough axis. Temperatures
bottoming out primarily in the 30s across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Look for any clouds across far eastern sections to get off the coast
during the morning. A rather expansive high pressure ridge will
build in from the west. On a dry northerly flow look for complete
sunshine and mild temperatures with enough of a synoptic flow to
likely prevent any real widespread sea breeze / ocean diurnal
induced wind. Look for mainly middle 50s to lower half of the 60s
for daytime max temperatures, a good 10 degrees or so above normal
in most places.
With the high settling right over the region Tuesday night look for
clear skies and light to calm winds. This should result in a fair
amount of radiational cooling. Lows will range from middle 30s
across far northern interior and rural sections, to the middle 40s
across much of the NYC metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Dry conditions will prevail Wednesday into Thursday morning,
and then again next weekend with temperatures mainly above
average.
* Showers become likely late Thursday and Thursday night along a
fast moving frontal system.
* Breezy and cooler conditions briefly return Friday.
The modeling has remained relatively consistent over the last few
days with the overall pattern progression into next weekend.
The upper trough that slowly moves overhead on Monday will slide
offshore Tuesday morning. This is in response to a build upper
ridge. The upper low is still expected to get trapped beneath the
ridge over the western Atlantic into Wednesday. This will not
directly impact our weather, but could enhance subsidence with the
ridging aloft later Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridging pushes
offshore on Thursday ahead of the next upper level trough, which
likely lifts over the area Thursday night into Friday. The ensemble
means then indicate a mostly zonal flow for next weekend.
Surface high pressure will be in control to begin the period, before
moving offshore on Thursday. The aforementioned upper trough will
send a fast moving frontal system across the area late Thursday
into Thursday night. The latest model consensus indicates most of
the daytime Thursday will be dry with just a chance of showers
late in the afternoon. The cold front sweeps across the area
Thursday night with the likelihood of showers. Low pressure may
develop along the front as it passes to our east and help add
more lift and moisture for the continuation of showers into
early Friday morning. Guidance has come into better agreement
with this scenario, but differ on the intensity of the low. The
progressive pattern would favor the low to quickly push off the
New England coast Friday morning. The NBM probabilities for
greater than an inch of rain in a 12 or 24 hour period Thursday
into Thursday night remain low and under 10 percent, consistent
with the speed of the system. The potential of low pressure on
the front may bring a possibility of some wet snow flakes mixing
in well inland as the system pulls away and draws colder air
southward.
Breezy and cooler conditions are expected on Friday under strong
cold advection and a W-NW flow. Temperatures look to remain in the
mid and upper 40s for highs which are slightly below average for
March 21st. Winds will likely gust 25-35 mph. The pressure gradient
should relax Friday night with high pressure returning for the
remainder of the weekend. Have kept the forecast dry next weekend
with a mainly zonal flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front and wave of low pressure was moving through
southeastern New England and east of Long Island at 18Z, and
will continue to track slowly eastward into Tuesday. Meanwhile,
high pressure to the west gradually builds in tonight through
Tuesday.
Conditions were generally MVFR from the NYC terminals and west
and north, with a period of IFR possible early in the forecast,
as conditions were slowly improving from west to east. To the
east IFR was widespread, and will be improving to MVFR by late
afternoon, and toward evening at KGON. VFR is likely west by
late afternoon and by late evening at KGON by late evening/04Z.
Timing is uncertain and may be off by an hour or so, as the
frontal system tracks slowly east and the high builds to the
west. Once VFR develops, VFR continues through the remainder of
the forecast.
Developing NW winds behind the frontal system will be increasing
and becoming gusty throughout the area this afternoon into
early this evening, with winds around 15 kt, gusting 20-25 kt.
Winds and gusts diminish toward 12Z Tuesday, and back to W
toward 18Z Tuesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely for timing of improving conditions this
afternoon, and for timing of gusty winds into this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: IFR/LIFR cigs possible in the morning mainly E of the
NYC metros, and MVFR to IFR NYC metros and W. Chance of showers
by afternoon with MVFR to IFR conditions, possibly ending as
snow inland. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt, winds shifting W
and NW during the evening into the night.
Friday: VFR at the NYC terminals and west, MVFR/IFR east with
showers ending late in the day, becoming VFR throughout. NW
wind 15-25 kt with G30-40kt, diminishing at night.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have come down for the time being, but the winds do come
back up some for this afternoon and this evening as a cold
front will push from west to east through the waters today.
Small craft advisories will be in effect for the ocean for a
prolonged period, and for a shorter time for NY Harbor later
today and this evening. The winds will switch to the NNW, with
a NNW flow prevailing later today into tonight, and into
Tuesday. With elevated seas on the ocean small craft seas are
expected to continue through much of the day Tuesday. The winds
will become rather light Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as
high pressure settles directly over the waters.
Winds on all waters should remain below SCA levels Wednesday and
through much of Thursday. Initially ocean seas will be around
4 ft, and then ocean seas become slightly more elevated at or
above 5 ft late Wednesday night into Thursday mainly due to
lingering SE swells. The next chance for SCA winds will be
Thursday night behind a cold front passage. There is also
potential for gales on the waters on Friday under a strong NW
flow and cold advection over the warmer waters. Seas will remain
elevated to end the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS