389
FXUS61 KOKX 181331
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
931 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across today and settles over the region
through mid week. A frontal system approaches from the west
Thursday, passing through Thursday night as a coastal low
develops along the boundary. The system pulls away Friday as the
low deepens, and high pressure briefly returns into Saturday. A
weak area of low pressure moves through Saturday night, with
another frontal system expected to approach early next week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure will slowly drift further offshore as an elongated ridge of high pressure builds into the region through this evening. Most of the area is starting the day clear, but some lingering stratus and high clouds persist across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. These should gradually diminish into the afternoon. The building upper ridge should keep skies mostly clear elsewhere the remainder of the day. Winds have been running a bit stronger compared to forecast and have increased them for the next few hours. A few gusts 25-30 mph remain possible, especially across Long Island and Southern Connecticut. The weakening gradient this afternoon with high pressure building overhead should allow winds to weaken and become lighter with most gusts ending early this afternoon. Temperatures will average above normal with widespread middle and upper 50s closer to the coast, with mainly lower and a few middle 60s further west and well inland. Clear skies and light to calm winds will be the theme tonight. This should pave the way for chilly conditions with a good radiational cooling set up. Lows will range from near to just below freezing in the coolest spots and mainly 30s, with some lower and middle 40s in the more urban areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Deep layer ridging will be over the area with sfc high pressure directly overhead. With the lack of any synoptic flow regime, look for diurnally driven sea breezes to initiate with daytime heating. A south to southeast flow will gradually push N and NW through the area during the afternoon. Max temperatures will be reached earlier in the day along coastal locations. There will be a large spread in temperatures by late afternoon with lower and middle 60s further inland, to near 50 for coastal communities. For Wednesday night the winds will be light out of the SE. Some of the soundings are indicating a low level inversion and the possibility of the formation of low clouds / stratus, especially further east and south across the area. Have included low end chance of drizzle for southern portions of the area later at night. Minimum temperatures will likely range from the middle 30s well inland, to the lower 40s closer to the coast and in the NYC metro. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points: * Rain returns late Thursday, with a possible change to snow in some areas as a frontal wave develops nearby and deepens into Friday * Gusty NW flow behind the system could exceed 40 mph at times Friday * Next chance for widespread precipitation then looks to arrive Monday into Tuesday of next week Ridging exits offshore to start the period ahead of an amplifying trough off to the west. Low pressure leading it cuts through the Great Lakes on Thursday, dragging a cold front toward the area Thursday night. With increasing southerly flow prior to the arrival, PWATs climb toward an inch, or around the 90th percentile and the max moving average for this time of year per SPC. Anticipate a solid stream of rain along and ahead of the front to move in by the evening Thursday, persisting overnight into Friday. As the front moves through, low pressure develops, aided by a southern stream jet and quickly deepens nearby. This leads to an increasing pressure gradient late Thursday night into Friday morning and strong NW flow on the back side of the system could help advect colder air down enough to allow a quick change from rain to snow early Friday morning across the interior, and perhaps even down to the coast for a brief period. A number of factors working against much in the way of accumulation, though a light accum is possible in the elevated interior should sufficient rates be realized with soundings hinting at a saturated DGZ for a period. The deep trough over the Central- Eastern US moves over the area Friday, leading the surface low to exit northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes later Friday into Friday night. Total QPF appears to average around an inch for this system. Gusty NW flow Friday with CAA helping deepen the mixing layer. Gusts could exceed 40 mph into the afternoon before gradually subsiding into Friday night. Conditions briefly calm into the start of the weekend as high pressure returns. Thereafter, a weak disturbance looks to pass thru late Saturday, perhaps bringing a few rain showers as it does so. Global guidance continues to advertise a more potent frontal system approaching from the west early next week, though timing and placement differences continue to offer a variety of solutions. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure to the west gradually builds in today. VFR thru the TAF. NW flow 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 20 to 25 kt thru the morning. Gusts may hang on til 16Z or so before subsiding, with speeds then lightening to under 10 kt into late day. Flow goes light and vrb into the evening with nearby high pressure, and this persists overnight into Wednesday before a light E or SE flow develops in the day. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Wednesday: VFR. Light E/SE flow. Thursday: IFR/LIFR cigs possible in the morning mainly E of the NYC metros, and MVFR to IFR NYC metros and W. Chance of showers late in the day, and likely at night, with MVFR to IFR conditions. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt, shifting W and NW into the night. Friday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain showers along the coast, and snow/rain showers inland, ending west to east through the day, and becoming VFR. NW wind 15-25 kt with G30-40kt, diminishing at night. Saturday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE...
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Have cancelled the SCA on the NY Harbor as winds continue to weaken below SCA levels. Extended the SCA on the LI Sound and LI Bays through noon as gusts 25-30 kt have been more persistent this morning. No changes were made to the SCA on the ocean. Winds on all waters will weaken into the afternoon, generally settling to 20 kt or less. Ocean seas will remain elevated through the afternoon, but should begin subsiding below 5 ft this evening west of Fire Island inlet. Seas above 5 ft should persist east of there through tonight. Sub small craft conditions are anticipated on Wednesday as high pressure settles over the waters with a SE flow developing late in the day and into Wednesday night. Ocean seas climb toward 5 or 6 ft Thursday afternoon, before increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system brings SCA conditions to all remaining waters late Thursday night or Friday morning as wind gusts exceed 25 kt. Gales possible on all waters Friday. Ocean seas peak 7 to 9 ft Friday, lowering below 5 ft by Saturday afternoon, then sub SCA conditions expected on all waters.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-332-335- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/DR NEAR TERM...JE/DS SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...DR AVIATION...DR MARINE...JE/DR/DS HYDROLOGY...JE/DR