389
FXUS61 KOKX 181331
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
931 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across today and settles over the region
through mid week. A frontal system approaches from the west
Thursday, passing through Thursday night as a coastal low
develops along the boundary. The system pulls away Friday as the
low deepens, and high pressure briefly returns into Saturday. A
weak area of low pressure moves through Saturday night, with
another frontal system expected to approach early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure will slowly drift further offshore as an elongated
ridge of high pressure builds into the region through this
evening. Most of the area is starting the day clear, but some
lingering stratus and high clouds persist across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut. These should gradually
diminish into the afternoon. The building upper ridge should
keep skies mostly clear elsewhere the remainder of the day.
Winds have been running a bit stronger compared to forecast and
have increased them for the next few hours. A few gusts 25-30
mph remain possible, especially across Long Island and Southern
Connecticut. The weakening gradient this afternoon with high
pressure building overhead should allow winds to weaken and
become lighter with most gusts ending early this afternoon.
Temperatures will average above normal with widespread middle
and upper 50s closer to the coast, with mainly lower and a few
middle 60s further west and well inland.
Clear skies and light to calm winds will be the theme tonight. This
should pave the way for chilly conditions with a good radiational
cooling set up. Lows will range from near to just below freezing in
the coolest spots and mainly 30s, with some lower and middle 40s in
the more urban areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep layer ridging will be over the area with sfc high pressure
directly overhead. With the lack of any synoptic flow regime, look
for diurnally driven sea breezes to initiate with daytime heating. A
south to southeast flow will gradually push N and NW through the
area during the afternoon. Max temperatures will be reached earlier
in the day along coastal locations. There will be a large spread in
temperatures by late afternoon with lower and middle 60s further
inland, to near 50 for coastal communities.
For Wednesday night the winds will be light out of the SE. Some of
the soundings are indicating a low level inversion and the
possibility of the formation of low clouds / stratus, especially
further east and south across the area. Have included low end chance
of drizzle for southern portions of the area later at night. Minimum
temperatures will likely range from the middle 30s well inland, to
the lower 40s closer to the coast and in the NYC metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:
* Rain returns late Thursday, with a possible change to snow in some
areas as a frontal wave develops nearby and deepens into Friday
* Gusty NW flow behind the system could exceed 40 mph at times Friday
* Next chance for widespread precipitation then looks to arrive
Monday into Tuesday of next week
Ridging exits offshore to start the period ahead of an amplifying
trough off to the west. Low pressure leading it cuts through the
Great Lakes on Thursday, dragging a cold front toward the area
Thursday night. With increasing southerly flow prior to the arrival,
PWATs climb toward an inch, or around the 90th percentile and the
max moving average for this time of year per SPC. Anticipate a solid
stream of rain along and ahead of the front to move in by the
evening Thursday, persisting overnight into Friday. As the front
moves through, low pressure develops, aided by a southern stream jet
and quickly deepens nearby. This leads to an increasing pressure
gradient late Thursday night into Friday morning and strong NW flow
on the back side of the system could help advect colder air down
enough to allow a quick change from rain to snow early Friday
morning across the interior, and perhaps even down to the coast for
a brief period. A number of factors working against much in the way
of accumulation, though a light accum is possible in the elevated
interior should sufficient rates be realized with soundings hinting
at a saturated DGZ for a period. The deep trough over the Central-
Eastern US moves over the area Friday, leading the surface low to
exit northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes later Friday into
Friday night. Total QPF appears to average around an inch for this
system.
Gusty NW flow Friday with CAA helping deepen the mixing layer. Gusts
could exceed 40 mph into the afternoon before gradually subsiding
into Friday night.
Conditions briefly calm into the start of the weekend as high
pressure returns. Thereafter, a weak disturbance looks to pass thru
late Saturday, perhaps bringing a few rain showers as it does so.
Global guidance continues to advertise a more potent frontal system
approaching from the west early next week, though timing and
placement differences continue to offer a variety of solutions.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure to the west gradually builds in today.
VFR thru the TAF.
NW flow 10 to 15 kt, with gusts 20 to 25 kt thru the morning. Gusts
may hang on til 16Z or so before subsiding, with speeds then
lightening to under 10 kt into late day. Flow goes light and vrb
into the evening with nearby high pressure, and this persists
overnight into Wednesday before a light E or SE flow develops
in the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. Light E/SE flow.
Thursday: IFR/LIFR cigs possible in the morning mainly E of the NYC
metros, and MVFR to IFR NYC metros and W. Chance of showers late in
the day, and likely at night, with MVFR to IFR conditions. S
winds 10-15 kt with G20-25 kt, shifting W and NW into the night.
Friday: MVFR, possibly IFR, with a chance of rain showers along the
coast, and snow/rain showers inland, ending west to east through the
day, and becoming VFR. NW wind 15-25 kt with G30-40kt, diminishing
at night.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Have cancelled the SCA on the NY Harbor as winds continue to
weaken below SCA levels. Extended the SCA on the LI Sound and LI
Bays through noon as gusts 25-30 kt have been more persistent
this morning. No changes were made to the SCA on the ocean.
Winds on all waters will weaken into the afternoon, generally
settling to 20 kt or less. Ocean seas will remain elevated
through the afternoon, but should begin subsiding below 5 ft
this evening west of Fire Island inlet. Seas above 5 ft should
persist east of there through tonight. Sub small craft
conditions are anticipated on Wednesday as high pressure settles
over the waters with a SE flow developing late in the day and
into Wednesday night.
Ocean seas climb toward 5 or 6 ft Thursday afternoon, before
increasing southerly flow ahead of a frontal system brings SCA
conditions to all remaining waters late Thursday night or Friday
morning as wind gusts exceed 25 kt. Gales possible on all waters
Friday. Ocean seas peak 7 to 9 ft Friday, lowering below 5 ft by
Saturday afternoon, then sub SCA conditions expected on all waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JE/DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DR