199
FXUS61 KOKX 200835
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front with developing low pressure will impact the region
tonight. A ridge of high pressure will briefly slide in for late
Friday and Friday night. Another cold front moves through
Saturday night. High pressure briefly returns Sunday, before a
stronger frontal system moves through the region Monday. Weak
high pressure return for Tuesday, with another low pressure
system possible for midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low clouds and some fog, along with patchy drizzle will hang around,
especially further south and east for a portion of the morning.
Otherwise, look for a cloudy day with a SE wind picking up some
later in the day. Temperatures will run noticeably cooler than
yesterday with clouds hanging in essentially all day. Max temps will
be mainly in the 50s. The exception will be some upper 40s across
Eastern LI, and near 60 across far SW portions of NJ. The frontal
system that approaches from the west should not impact the region
through the daylight hours. However, into this evening showers will
break out from west to east as the frontal system draws closer.
For tonight showers should get going closer to 1-3z across the
western half of the area, and a couple of hours later further east.
The main batch of wet weather will be centered in the 4z to 9z time
frame for much of the area. As the front bears down on the region a
secondary low pressure center will form right along the boundary as
it draws closer and crosses the area. The rain will likely pick up
in intensity and be more moderate in intensity just before the
boundary crosses the area. A south to southeast flow will turn
quickly NW towards and just after 6z from west to east. The cold
advection for the western half of the area will pick up towards
daybreak with an uptick of the wind towards sunrise. Further east
the boundary crosses with the wind shift an hour or two later,
closer to sunrise. For far western portions of Orange County towards
10z there may be an hour or two of wet snow on the back edge of the
precip shield as colder air rushes in, especially in higher
elevations. Temperatures in all likelihood will stay above freezing
so not really expecting anything in terms of any light accumulation
as the front will be progressive and any precip should shut off
quickly into Friday morning. Liquid equivalent amounts should be on
the order of a half inch or so across much of the area. Lows will
range from the lower to middle 30s across Orange COunty, to the
upper half of the 30s and lower 40s across the remainder of the
region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As the boundary and deepening low pressure get off the coast deep
layer mixing takes place quickly with the pressure gradient
tightening up sharply by mid morning. This will lead to gusty winds
through the day. Winds should easily gust to 35 mph across the area,
with some peak gusts to or just above around 40 mph. At this time it
appears that overall the area should fall short of wind advisory
criteria. Skies should clear quickly from west to east during the
mid to late morning as much drier air rushes in with dew point
reading falling through the 20s. Temperatures will average near
normal with mainly lower half of the 50s across the region by the
afternoon, with upper half of the 40s across far interior locations.
The winds begin to lower Friday evening, and diminish further later
Friday night. With a high pressure ridge quickly settling in during
the pre-dawn hours winds will likely decouple across much of the
area. Skies will be mainly clear with a bit more in the way of
clouds towards or just before daybreak. Overall this should lead to
a radiational cooling set up where rural locations get down to
around freezing, with middle 30s and lower 40s across the metro and
the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Good agreement in nearly zonal upper flow with an embedded northern
stream shortwave this weekend, giving way to more amplified flow
early next way ahead of deepening PAC trough over the Great Lakes
/ Mississippi River Valley. This trough gradually slides into the
eastern US for mid to late next week.
At the surface, a weakening polar shortwave/front approaches
Saturday and crosses Saturday evening. This feature is
moisture starved, with upstream shower activity likely
weakening as it enters area N&W of NYC. Mild and breezy
conditions ahead of the cold front with quick shot of waa and
deep mixing, giving way to glancing shot of polar air Sat
night/Sun AM on gusty NW winds in wake of front.
Brief ridging surface/aloft Sun, in wake of this system with temps
running slightly below seasonable. A stronger frontal system
quickly approaches Sun Night/Mon associated with vigorous closed
low moving through the Upper Mississippi River valley/Great
Lakes Sun night. Shortwave and 55-60kt llj aided lift of +1-2
STD pwat gulf moisture ahead of an approaching warm front to the
south will allow for increasing likelihood of rain for the
city/coast Sun Night into Monday AM. Across the interior,
thermal profiles primed by recent polar airmass intrusion, could
support a period snow or a wintry mix at the onset Sun
Night/early Mon AM, before transitioning to rain. Any
snow/wintry mix would be light, but too early for details at
this point. Potential for a period of moderate to heavy rain as
well for eastern portions of the region Monday as WCB develops
with more favorable ulj/llj lift.
Shortwave energy shears ne Monday night, with weak high
pressure, drying conditions, and seasonable temps in the wake of
the frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday.
Thereafter, general agreement in mean troughing across the NE US
heading into the mid week period, but model spread on
timing/amplitude of individual northern stream shortwaves digging
through the flow for Tue/Wed and resultant low pressure timing,
intensity and track.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure gradually moves off the New England coast today,
with a cold front approaching this evening and crossing the area
tonight.
LIFR, patchy VLIFR, in low stratus, drizzle and fog early this
morning. Gradual improvement to IFR cigs/mvfr vsby likely during the
mid to late morning for NYC/Nj metro terminals, with MVFR conds
possible for these terminals in the afternoon. LIFR may be more
stubborn for south facing coastal terminals into the afternoon,
possibly even KJFK/KHPN. A return to LIFR likely for eastern
terminals for the eve push, possible for KJFK/KHPN. Rain likely
between 00z and 09z for NYC/NJ metro terminals with IFR conds, 1-2
hrs later for eastern terminals. Conds improving to VFR late tonight
in its wake.
SE winds less than 10 kt through the AM push, increasing in the
aft/eve with gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds and gusts
briefly weaken with frontal passage, shifting WNW 15g25kt in its
wake after 06z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
IFR/LIFR conds in stratus/drizzle/br/fg likely thru AM push. IFR
cigs likely remain through the day into eve push, but improvement to
MVFR/VFR vsby likely late morning into aft. Timing of improvement
may be off by 1-3 hours.
IFR vsby possible for eve push, particularly JFK.
SE gusts to 20 kt likely for aft/early eve push.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late Tonight: Rain showers tapering off with conds improving to
MVFR/VFR. NW windshift 15-20G25-30kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G30-40kt through the afternoon. NW gusts
20-25 kt in the evening.
Saturday: VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers, particularly NW of NYC in
aft. SW winds G25-30kt in the aft, becoming W/NW in the eve.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Sunday Night-Monday: IFR with rain likely. Possible onset as snow
for KSWF.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Low visibilities at times for a good portion of the morning with
visibility improving overall for the afternoon. Seas gradually climb
to small craft criteria from east to west out on the ocean this
afternoon. The winds also will get to 15 to 20 kt late in the day,
especially out on the ocean and the eastern LI and south shore bays.
The winds switch quickly with the passage of a cold front Friday
morning. Winds quickly ramp up to gale force on all waters and last
through the day. The winds lower Friday evening, and diminish
further into Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure works
in. Sub SCA conditions Sat morning, likely give way to SCA ocean seas in
strengthening SW flow 5 ft Sat aft/eve. Occasional nearshore gusts
to 25 kt possible Sat aft/eve, becoming likely SCA gusts for the
ocean waters Sat Night into early Sun Am in wake of cold front.
Sub-SCA conds for Sun-Sun Night as weak high pressure moves across.
The next potential for SCA conds is on Monday, particularly on
the ocean, ahead of a frontal system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time no hydrologic impacts are expected throughout the
forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
Friday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/NV
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JE/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV