199
FXUS61 KOKX 200835
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
435 AM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front with developing low pressure will impact the region tonight. A ridge of high pressure will briefly slide in for late Friday and Friday night. Another cold front moves through Saturday night. High pressure briefly returns Sunday, before a stronger frontal system moves through the region Monday. Weak high pressure return for Tuesday, with another low pressure system possible for midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low clouds and some fog, along with patchy drizzle will hang around, especially further south and east for a portion of the morning. Otherwise, look for a cloudy day with a SE wind picking up some later in the day. Temperatures will run noticeably cooler than yesterday with clouds hanging in essentially all day. Max temps will be mainly in the 50s. The exception will be some upper 40s across Eastern LI, and near 60 across far SW portions of NJ. The frontal system that approaches from the west should not impact the region through the daylight hours. However, into this evening showers will break out from west to east as the frontal system draws closer. For tonight showers should get going closer to 1-3z across the western half of the area, and a couple of hours later further east. The main batch of wet weather will be centered in the 4z to 9z time frame for much of the area. As the front bears down on the region a secondary low pressure center will form right along the boundary as it draws closer and crosses the area. The rain will likely pick up in intensity and be more moderate in intensity just before the boundary crosses the area. A south to southeast flow will turn quickly NW towards and just after 6z from west to east. The cold advection for the western half of the area will pick up towards daybreak with an uptick of the wind towards sunrise. Further east the boundary crosses with the wind shift an hour or two later, closer to sunrise. For far western portions of Orange County towards 10z there may be an hour or two of wet snow on the back edge of the precip shield as colder air rushes in, especially in higher elevations. Temperatures in all likelihood will stay above freezing so not really expecting anything in terms of any light accumulation as the front will be progressive and any precip should shut off quickly into Friday morning. Liquid equivalent amounts should be on the order of a half inch or so across much of the area. Lows will range from the lower to middle 30s across Orange COunty, to the upper half of the 30s and lower 40s across the remainder of the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As the boundary and deepening low pressure get off the coast deep layer mixing takes place quickly with the pressure gradient tightening up sharply by mid morning. This will lead to gusty winds through the day. Winds should easily gust to 35 mph across the area, with some peak gusts to or just above around 40 mph. At this time it appears that overall the area should fall short of wind advisory criteria. Skies should clear quickly from west to east during the mid to late morning as much drier air rushes in with dew point reading falling through the 20s. Temperatures will average near normal with mainly lower half of the 50s across the region by the afternoon, with upper half of the 40s across far interior locations. The winds begin to lower Friday evening, and diminish further later Friday night. With a high pressure ridge quickly settling in during the pre-dawn hours winds will likely decouple across much of the area. Skies will be mainly clear with a bit more in the way of clouds towards or just before daybreak. Overall this should lead to a radiational cooling set up where rural locations get down to around freezing, with middle 30s and lower 40s across the metro and the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Good agreement in nearly zonal upper flow with an embedded northern stream shortwave this weekend, giving way to more amplified flow early next way ahead of deepening PAC trough over the Great Lakes / Mississippi River Valley. This trough gradually slides into the eastern US for mid to late next week. At the surface, a weakening polar shortwave/front approaches Saturday and crosses Saturday evening. This feature is moisture starved, with upstream shower activity likely weakening as it enters area N&W of NYC. Mild and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front with quick shot of waa and deep mixing, giving way to glancing shot of polar air Sat night/Sun AM on gusty NW winds in wake of front. Brief ridging surface/aloft Sun, in wake of this system with temps running slightly below seasonable. A stronger frontal system quickly approaches Sun Night/Mon associated with vigorous closed low moving through the Upper Mississippi River valley/Great Lakes Sun night. Shortwave and 55-60kt llj aided lift of +1-2 STD pwat gulf moisture ahead of an approaching warm front to the south will allow for increasing likelihood of rain for the city/coast Sun Night into Monday AM. Across the interior, thermal profiles primed by recent polar airmass intrusion, could support a period snow or a wintry mix at the onset Sun Night/early Mon AM, before transitioning to rain. Any snow/wintry mix would be light, but too early for details at this point. Potential for a period of moderate to heavy rain as well for eastern portions of the region Monday as WCB develops with more favorable ulj/llj lift. Shortwave energy shears ne Monday night, with weak high pressure, drying conditions, and seasonable temps in the wake of the frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday. Thereafter, general agreement in mean troughing across the NE US heading into the mid week period, but model spread on timing/amplitude of individual northern stream shortwaves digging through the flow for Tue/Wed and resultant low pressure timing, intensity and track.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure gradually moves off the New England coast today, with a cold front approaching this evening and crossing the area tonight. LIFR, patchy VLIFR, in low stratus, drizzle and fog early this morning. Gradual improvement to IFR cigs/mvfr vsby likely during the mid to late morning for NYC/Nj metro terminals, with MVFR conds possible for these terminals in the afternoon. LIFR may be more stubborn for south facing coastal terminals into the afternoon, possibly even KJFK/KHPN. A return to LIFR likely for eastern terminals for the eve push, possible for KJFK/KHPN. Rain likely between 00z and 09z for NYC/NJ metro terminals with IFR conds, 1-2 hrs later for eastern terminals. Conds improving to VFR late tonight in its wake. SE winds less than 10 kt through the AM push, increasing in the aft/eve with gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds and gusts briefly weaken with frontal passage, shifting WNW 15g25kt in its wake after 06z. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... IFR/LIFR conds in stratus/drizzle/br/fg likely thru AM push. IFR cigs likely remain through the day into eve push, but improvement to MVFR/VFR vsby likely late morning into aft. Timing of improvement may be off by 1-3 hours. IFR vsby possible for eve push, particularly JFK. SE gusts to 20 kt likely for aft/early eve push. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Late Tonight: Rain showers tapering off with conds improving to MVFR/VFR. NW windshift 15-20G25-30kt. Friday: VFR. NW winds G30-40kt through the afternoon. NW gusts 20-25 kt in the evening. Saturday: VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers, particularly NW of NYC in aft. SW winds G25-30kt in the aft, becoming W/NW in the eve. Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20kt. Sunday Night-Monday: IFR with rain likely. Possible onset as snow for KSWF. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Low visibilities at times for a good portion of the morning with visibility improving overall for the afternoon. Seas gradually climb to small craft criteria from east to west out on the ocean this afternoon. The winds also will get to 15 to 20 kt late in the day, especially out on the ocean and the eastern LI and south shore bays. The winds switch quickly with the passage of a cold front Friday morning. Winds quickly ramp up to gale force on all waters and last through the day. The winds lower Friday evening, and diminish further into Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure works in. Sub SCA conditions Sat morning, likely give way to SCA ocean seas in strengthening SW flow 5 ft Sat aft/eve. Occasional nearshore gusts to 25 kt possible Sat aft/eve, becoming likely SCA gusts for the ocean waters Sat Night into early Sun Am in wake of cold front. Sub-SCA conds for Sun-Sun Night as weak high pressure moves across. The next potential for SCA conds is on Monday, particularly on the ocean, ahead of a frontal system.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... At this time no hydrologic impacts are expected throughout the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/NV NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...NV MARINE...JE/NV HYDROLOGY...JE/NV