473
FXUS61 KOKX 201620
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1220 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with developing low pressure will impact the region
tonight. A ridge of high pressure will briefly slide in for late
Friday and Friday night. Another cold front moves through
Saturday night. High pressure briefly returns Sunday, before a
stronger frontal system moves through the region Monday. Weak
high pressure return for Tuesday, with another low pressure
system possible for midweek.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Vis satellite showing low clouds breaking up across interior portions of SE CT, the lower Hudson Valley, and NW/central NJ. With H9 SE flow up to 25 kt helping mix down dry air from aloft into the moist layer (wavy appearance of the edge of the low clouds bears this out) can`t rule out breaks in the clouds elsewhere for a time this afternoon, except maybe across SW CT and western Long Island where cigs and vsby are likely to remain quite low through the afternoon. High temps will be mainly in the 50s, except in the upper 40s across eastern Long Island, and near 60 in the urban corridor of NE NJ. The frontal system that approaches from the west should not impact the region through the daylight hours. However, showers will break out from west to east this evening as the frontal system draws closer. For tonight showers should get going closer to 01-03Z across the western half of the area, and a couple of hours later farther east, with the main batch of wet weather be centered around the 04-09Z time frame. As the front bears down on the region a secondary low will form right along the boundary as it draws closer and crosses the area. Rain will likely pick up in intensity and be more moderate in intensity just before the boundary crosses the area. A S-SE flow will then turn quickly NW around or just after 06Z from west to east, with CAA for the western half of the area picking up toward daybreak, and an uptick of the wind toward sunrise. Farther east the boundary and wind shift will move across closer to sunrise. For far western portions of Orange County be an hour or two of wet snow on the back edge of the precip shield late as colder air rushes in, especially in the higher elevations. Temperatures in all likelihood will stay above freezing so not really expecting anything in terms of any light accumulation, as the front will be progressive and any precip should shut off quickly into Friday morning. Low temps will range from the lower/mid 30s across Orange County, to the upper 30s/lower 40s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As the boundary and deepening low pressure get off the coast deep layer mixing takes place quickly with the pressure gradient tightening up sharply by mid morning. This will lead to gusty winds through the day. Winds should easily gust to 35 mph across the area, with some peak gusts to or just above around 40 mph. At this time it appears that overall the area should fall short of wind advisory criteria. Skies should clear quickly from west to east during the mid to late morning as much drier air rushes in with dew point reading falling through the 20s. Temperatures will average near normal with mainly lower half of the 50s across the region by the afternoon, with upper half of the 40s across far interior locations. The winds begin to lower Friday evening, and diminish further later Friday night. With a high pressure ridge quickly settling in during the pre-dawn hours winds will likely decouple across much of the area. Skies will be mainly clear with a bit more in the way of clouds towards or just before daybreak. Overall this should lead to a radiational cooling set up where rural locations get down to around freezing, with middle 30s and lower 40s across the metro and the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Good agreement in nearly zonal upper flow with an embedded northern stream shortwave this weekend, giving way to more amplified flow early next way ahead of deepening PAC trough over the Great Lakes / Mississippi River Valley. This trough gradually slides into the eastern US for mid to late next week. At the surface, a weakening polar shortwave/front approaches Saturday and crosses Saturday evening. This feature is moisture starved, with upstream shower activity likely weakening as it enters area N&W of NYC. Mild and breezy conditions ahead of the cold front with quick shot of waa and deep mixing, giving way to glancing shot of polar air Sat night/Sun AM on gusty NW winds in wake of front. Brief ridging surface/aloft Sun, in wake of this system with temps running slightly below seasonable. A stronger frontal system quickly approaches Sun Night/Mon associated with vigorous closed low moving through the Upper Mississippi River valley/Great Lakes Sun night. Shortwave and 55-60kt llj aided lift of +1-2 STD pwat gulf moisture ahead of an approaching warm front to the south will allow for increasing likelihood of rain for the city/coast Sun Night into Monday AM. Across the interior, thermal profiles primed by recent polar airmass intrusion, could support a period snow or a wintry mix at the onset Sun Night/early Mon AM, before transitioning to rain. Any snow/wintry mix would be light, but too early for details at this point. Potential for a period of moderate to heavy rain as well for eastern portions of the region Monday as WCB develops with more favorable ulj/llj lift. Shortwave energy shears ne Monday night, with weak high pressure, drying conditions, and seasonable temps in the wake of the frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday. Thereafter, general agreement in mean troughing across the NE US heading into the mid week period, but model spread on timing/amplitude of individual northern stream shortwaves digging through the flow for Tue/Wed and resultant low pressure timing, intensity and track. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure gradually moves off the New England coast into this afternoon, with a cold front approaching this evening and crossing the area tonight. LIFR conditions to start this morning may improve to MVFR/IFR this afternoon especially away from the south facing coastal terminals. Conditions may stay LIFR into much of the afternoon and potentially this evening at KJFK, KISP, KGON, and KBDR. Conditions should improve to MVFR at KSWF with potential for a period of VFR this afternoon. Conditions may briefly lower this evening to IFR or even LIFR before rain overspreads the terminals 00 to 04z taking longest to move over eastern terminals. The rain should largely end 07-09z with conditions improving to VFR early Friday morning. SE winds 10 kt or less for the rest of the morning, increasing in the aft/eve with gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds and gusts briefly weaken with frontal passage, shifting WNW 15g25kt in its wake after 06z. NW winds 15-25g30-40kt expected on Friday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... LIFR ceilings may persist at KJFK and KLGA through this evening, but visibilities may improve to MVFR. Timing of improvement to MVFR at KEWR and KTEB may be off by 1-3 hours, and could remain IFR through the afternoon. Any brief improvement this afternoon may lower back to IFR or LIFR this evening. Timing of rain may be off by 1-2 hours this evening with conditions settling to IFR. SE gusts to 20 kt may be occasional this afternoon and evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-25g30-40kt through the afternoon. NW gusts 20-25 kt in the evening. Saturday: VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers, particularly NW of NYC in aft. SW winds G25-30kt in the aft, becoming W/NW in the eve. Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20kt. Sunday Night-Monday: IFR with rain likely. Possible onset as snow for KSWF. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE...
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Vsby should improve this afternoon except across western Long Island Sound and the ocean waters south of NYC over to western Suffolk, where a dense fog advy will need to be reissued. Ocean seas are now at 5 ft at the offshore buoys and will continue to build as high as 6-7 ft tonight, while SE winds increase to 15-20 kt by late afternoon. Winds switch quickly to the NW with the passage of a cold front Fri morning and quickly ramp up to gale force on all waters and last through the day. Winds lower Fri evening, and diminish further into Saturday morning as a ridge of high pressure works in. Sub SCA conditions Sat morning likely give way to 5+ ft ocean seas in strengthening SW flow Sat afternoon/eve. Occasional near shore gusts to 25 kt possible Sat afternoon/eve, becoming more frequent on the ocean waters Sat night into early Sunday morning after a cold frontal passage. The next potential for SCA conds will be on Monday, particularly on the ocean, ahead of a frontal system.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Rainfall tonight should be around 1/2 inch. No hydrologic impacts expected.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/BG/NV NEAR TERM...BG SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...DS/NV MARINE...JE/BG/NV HYDROLOGY...JE/NV