473
FXUS61 KOKX 201620
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1220 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with developing low pressure will impact the region
tonight. A ridge of high pressure will briefly slide in for late
Friday and Friday night. Another cold front moves through
Saturday night. High pressure briefly returns Sunday, before a
stronger frontal system moves through the region Monday. Weak
high pressure return for Tuesday, with another low pressure
system possible for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Vis satellite showing low clouds breaking up across interior
portions of SE CT, the lower Hudson Valley, and NW/central NJ.
With H9 SE flow up to 25 kt helping mix down dry air from aloft
into the moist layer (wavy appearance of the edge of the low
clouds bears this out) can`t rule out breaks in the clouds
elsewhere for a time this afternoon, except maybe across SW CT
and western Long Island where cigs and vsby are likely to remain
quite low through the afternoon.
High temps will be mainly in the 50s, except in the upper 40s
across eastern Long Island, and near 60 in the urban corridor of
NE NJ.
The frontal system that approaches from the west should not
impact the region through the daylight hours. However, showers
will break out from west to east this evening as the frontal
system draws closer. For tonight showers should get going
closer to 01-03Z across the western half of the area, and a
couple of hours later farther east, with the main batch of wet
weather be centered around the 04-09Z time frame. As the front
bears down on the region a secondary low will form right along
the boundary as it draws closer and crosses the area. Rain will
likely pick up in intensity and be more moderate in intensity
just before the boundary crosses the area.
A S-SE flow will then turn quickly NW around or just after 06Z
from west to east, with CAA for the western half of the area
picking up toward daybreak, and an uptick of the wind toward
sunrise. Farther east the boundary and wind shift will move
across closer to sunrise.
For far western portions of Orange County be an hour or two of
wet snow on the back edge of the precip shield late as colder
air rushes in, especially in the higher elevations.
Temperatures in all likelihood will stay above freezing so not
really expecting anything in terms of any light accumulation, as
the front will be progressive and any precip should shut off
quickly into Friday morning. Low temps will range from the
lower/mid 30s across Orange County, to the upper 30s/lower 40s
elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the boundary and deepening low pressure get off the coast deep
layer mixing takes place quickly with the pressure gradient
tightening up sharply by mid morning. This will lead to gusty winds
through the day. Winds should easily gust to 35 mph across the area,
with some peak gusts to or just above around 40 mph. At this time it
appears that overall the area should fall short of wind advisory
criteria. Skies should clear quickly from west to east during the
mid to late morning as much drier air rushes in with dew point
reading falling through the 20s. Temperatures will average near
normal with mainly lower half of the 50s across the region by the
afternoon, with upper half of the 40s across far interior locations.
The winds begin to lower Friday evening, and diminish further later
Friday night. With a high pressure ridge quickly settling in during
the pre-dawn hours winds will likely decouple across much of the
area. Skies will be mainly clear with a bit more in the way of
clouds towards or just before daybreak. Overall this should lead to
a radiational cooling set up where rural locations get down to
around freezing, with middle 30s and lower 40s across the metro and
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Good agreement in nearly zonal upper flow with an embedded northern
stream shortwave this weekend, giving way to more amplified flow
early next way ahead of deepening PAC trough over the Great Lakes
/ Mississippi River Valley. This trough gradually slides into the
eastern US for mid to late next week.
At the surface, a weakening polar shortwave/front approaches
Saturday and crosses Saturday evening. This feature is
moisture starved, with upstream shower activity likely
weakening as it enters area N&W of NYC. Mild and breezy
conditions ahead of the cold front with quick shot of waa and
deep mixing, giving way to glancing shot of polar air Sat
night/Sun AM on gusty NW winds in wake of front.
Brief ridging surface/aloft Sun, in wake of this system with temps
running slightly below seasonable. A stronger frontal system
quickly approaches Sun Night/Mon associated with vigorous closed
low moving through the Upper Mississippi River valley/Great
Lakes Sun night. Shortwave and 55-60kt llj aided lift of +1-2
STD pwat gulf moisture ahead of an approaching warm front to the
south will allow for increasing likelihood of rain for the
city/coast Sun Night into Monday AM. Across the interior,
thermal profiles primed by recent polar airmass intrusion, could
support a period snow or a wintry mix at the onset Sun
Night/early Mon AM, before transitioning to rain. Any
snow/wintry mix would be light, but too early for details at
this point. Potential for a period of moderate to heavy rain as
well for eastern portions of the region Monday as WCB develops
with more favorable ulj/llj lift.
Shortwave energy shears ne Monday night, with weak high
pressure, drying conditions, and seasonable temps in the wake of
the frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday.
Thereafter, general agreement in mean troughing across the NE US
heading into the mid week period, but model spread on
timing/amplitude of individual northern stream shortwaves digging
through the flow for Tue/Wed and resultant low pressure timing,
intensity and track.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure gradually moves off the New England coast into
this afternoon, with a cold front approaching this evening and
crossing the area tonight.
LIFR conditions to start this morning may improve to MVFR/IFR
this afternoon especially away from the south facing coastal
terminals. Conditions may stay LIFR into much of the afternoon
and potentially this evening at KJFK, KISP, KGON, and KBDR.
Conditions should improve to MVFR at KSWF with potential for a
period of VFR this afternoon. Conditions may briefly lower this
evening to IFR or even LIFR before rain overspreads the
terminals 00 to 04z taking longest to move over eastern
terminals. The rain should largely end 07-09z with conditions
improving to VFR early Friday morning.
SE winds 10 kt or less for the rest of the morning, increasing
in the aft/eve with gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds and gusts
briefly weaken with frontal passage, shifting WNW 15g25kt in
its wake after 06z. NW winds 15-25g30-40kt expected on Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
LIFR ceilings may persist at KJFK and KLGA through this
evening, but visibilities may improve to MVFR.
Timing of improvement to MVFR at KEWR and KTEB may be off by 1-3
hours, and could remain IFR through the afternoon.
Any brief improvement this afternoon may lower back to IFR or
LIFR this evening.
Timing of rain may be off by 1-2 hours this evening with
conditions settling to IFR.
SE gusts to 20 kt may be occasional this afternoon and evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-25g30-40kt through the afternoon. NW
gusts 20-25 kt in the evening.
Saturday: VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers, particularly NW of NYC in
aft. SW winds G25-30kt in the aft, becoming W/NW in the eve.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.
Sunday Night-Monday: IFR with rain likely. Possible onset as snow
for KSWF.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Vsby should improve this afternoon except across western Long
Island Sound and the ocean waters south of NYC over to western
Suffolk, where a dense fog advy will need to be reissued.
Ocean seas are now at 5 ft at the offshore buoys and will
continue to build as high as 6-7 ft tonight, while SE winds
increase to 15-20 kt by late afternoon. Winds switch quickly to
the NW with the passage of a cold front Fri morning and quickly
ramp up to gale force on all waters and last through the day.
Winds lower Fri evening, and diminish further into Saturday
morning as a ridge of high pressure works in. Sub SCA conditions
Sat morning likely give way to 5+ ft ocean seas in
strengthening SW flow Sat afternoon/eve. Occasional near shore
gusts to 25 kt possible Sat afternoon/eve, becoming more
frequent on the ocean waters Sat night into early Sunday morning
after a cold frontal passage.
The next potential for SCA conds will be on Monday, particularly
on the ocean, ahead of a frontal system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Rainfall tonight should be around 1/2 inch. No hydrologic
impacts expected.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG/NV
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DS/NV
MARINE...JE/BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV