576
FXUS61 KOKX 201721
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 PM EDT Thu Mar 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with developing low pressure will impact the region
tonight. A ridge of high pressure will briefly slide in for late
Friday and Friday night. Another cold front moves through
Saturday night. High pressure briefly returns Sunday, before a
stronger frontal system moves through the region Monday. Weak
high pressure return for Tuesday, with another low pressure
system possible for midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Vis satellite showing low clouds breaking up across interior
portions of SE CT, the lower Hudson Valley, and NW/central NJ.
With H9 SE flow up to 25 kt helping mix down dry air from aloft
into the moist layer (wavy appearance of the edge of the low
clouds bears this out) can`t rule out breaks in the clouds
elsewhere for a time this afternoon, except maybe across SW CT
and western Long Island where cigs and vsby are likely to remain
quite low through the afternoon.
High temps will be mainly in the 50s, except in the upper 40s
across eastern Long Island, and near 60 in the urban corridor of
NE NJ.
The frontal system that approaches from the west should not
impact the region through the daylight hours. However, showers
will break out from west to east this evening as the frontal
system draws closer. For tonight showers should get going
closer to 01-03Z across the western half of the area, and a
couple of hours later farther east, with the main batch of wet
weather be centered around the 04-09Z time frame. As the front
bears down on the region a secondary low will form right along
the boundary as it draws closer and crosses the area. Rain will
likely pick up in intensity and be more moderate in intensity
just before the boundary crosses the area.
A S-SE flow will then turn quickly NW around or just after 06Z
from west to east, with CAA for the western half of the area
picking up toward daybreak, and an uptick of the wind toward
sunrise. Farther east the boundary and wind shift will move
across closer to sunrise.
For far western portions of Orange County be an hour or two of
wet snow on the back edge of the precip shield late as colder
air rushes in, especially in the higher elevations.
Temperatures in all likelihood will stay above freezing so not
really expecting anything in terms of any light accumulation, as
the front will be progressive and any precip should shut off
quickly into Friday morning. Low temps will range from the
lower/mid 30s across Orange County, to the upper 30s/lower 40s
elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the boundary and deepening low pressure get off the coast deep
layer mixing takes place quickly with the pressure gradient
tightening up sharply by mid morning. This will lead to gusty winds
through the day. Winds should easily gust to 35 mph across the area,
with some peak gusts to or just above around 40 mph. At this time it
appears that overall the area should fall short of wind advisory
criteria. Skies should clear quickly from west to east during the
mid to late morning as much drier air rushes in with dew point
reading falling through the 20s. Temperatures will average near
normal with mainly lower half of the 50s across the region by the
afternoon, with upper half of the 40s across far interior locations.
The winds begin to lower Friday evening, and diminish further later
Friday night. With a high pressure ridge quickly settling in during
the pre-dawn hours winds will likely decouple across much of the
area. Skies will be mainly clear with a bit more in the way of
clouds towards or just before daybreak. Overall this should lead to
a radiational cooling set up where rural locations get down to
around freezing, with middle 30s and lower 40s across the metro and
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Good agreement in nearly zonal upper flow with an embedded northern
stream shortwave this weekend, giving way to more amplified flow
early next way ahead of deepening PAC trough over the Great Lakes
/ Mississippi River Valley. This trough gradually slides into the
eastern US for mid to late next week.
At the surface, a weakening polar shortwave/front approaches
Saturday and crosses Saturday evening. This feature is
moisture starved, with upstream shower activity likely
weakening as it enters area N&W of NYC. Mild and breezy
conditions ahead of the cold front with quick shot of waa and
deep mixing, giving way to glancing shot of polar air Sat
night/Sun AM on gusty NW winds in wake of front.
Brief ridging surface/aloft Sun, in wake of this system with temps
running slightly below seasonable. A stronger frontal system
quickly approaches Sun Night/Mon associated with vigorous closed
low moving through the Upper Mississippi River valley/Great
Lakes Sun night. Shortwave and 55-60kt llj aided lift of +1-2
STD pwat gulf moisture ahead of an approaching warm front to the
south will allow for increasing likelihood of rain for the
city/coast Sun Night into Monday AM. Across the interior,
thermal profiles primed by recent polar airmass intrusion, could
support a period snow or a wintry mix at the onset Sun
Night/early Mon AM, before transitioning to rain. Any
snow/wintry mix would be light, but too early for details at
this point. Potential for a period of moderate to heavy rain as
well for eastern portions of the region Monday as WCB develops
with more favorable ulj/llj lift.
Shortwave energy shears ne Monday night, with weak high
pressure, drying conditions, and seasonable temps in the wake of
the frontal system for Monday night into Tuesday.
Thereafter, general agreement in mean troughing across the NE US
heading into the mid week period, but model spread on
timing/amplitude of individual northern stream shortwaves digging
through the flow for Tue/Wed and resultant low pressure timing,
intensity and track.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches this evening and crosses the terminals
tonight. High pressure gradually builds in through Friday.
Varying conditions across the region this afternoon. Most
locations will start out LIFR-IFR except for KSWF which should
fluctuate between MVFR and VFR. There will likely be some
improvement to MVFR for KEWR and KTEB, but most other terminals
should remain IFR-LIFR for the remainder of he afternoon.
Conditions should deteriorate this evening with many terminals
from KJFK/KLGA on east settling back to LIFR.
Rain will then overspread the terminals from west to east 00z to
05z, latest for eastern terminals. Conditions will likely settle
to IFR in rain. The rain should largely end 06-09z from west to
east with conditions improving to VFR through day break Friday.
VFR then prevails on Friday.
SE winds 10-15kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20kt possible.
Winds and gusts briefly weaken this evening before shifting to
the WNW-NW with the frontal passage 06-10z. NW winds increase
behind the front becoming 15-25g30-40kt on Friday. Winds and
gusts should start weakening late Friday afternoon and early
Friday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
SE gusts to 20kt may be occasional this afternoon.
Improvement to IFR possible at JFK and LGA this afternoon with a
low chance for a brief improvement to MVFR.
Chance for VFR at KEWR and KTEB 19-23z.
Timing of lowering conditions this evening may be off by 1-2
hours.
Timing of rain may be off by 1-2 hours this evening with
conditions settling to IFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon-Night: VFR. NW winds 15-25g30-40kt in the
afternoon. NW gusts 20-25kt in the evening, diminishing at
night.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower NW of NYC in the
afternoon. SW gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon, becoming W/NW in
the evening.
Sunday: VFR. NW gusts 15-20kt.
Sunday Night-Monday: Becoming IFR with rain. Possible onset as
snow for KSWF. S gusts 15-20kt near the coast on Monday.
Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Vsby should improve this afternoon except across western Long
Island Sound and the ocean waters south of NYC over to western
Suffolk, where a dense fog advy will need to be reissued.
Ocean seas are now at 5 ft at the offshore buoys and will
continue to build as high as 6-7 ft tonight, while SE winds
increase to 15-20 kt by late afternoon. Winds switch quickly to
the NW with the passage of a cold front Fri morning and quickly
ramp up to gale force on all waters and last through the day.
Winds lower Fri evening, and diminish further into Saturday
morning as a ridge of high pressure works in. Sub SCA conditions
Sat morning likely give way to 5+ ft ocean seas in
strengthening SW flow Sat afternoon/eve. Occasional near shore
gusts to 25 kt possible Sat afternoon/eve, becoming more
frequent on the ocean waters Sat night into early Sunday morning
after a cold frontal passage.
The next potential for SCA conds will be on Monday, particularly
on the ocean, ahead of a frontal system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall tonight should be around 1/2 inch. No hydrologic
impacts expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/BG/NV
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DS/NV
MARINE...JE/BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...JE/NV