342
FXUS61 KOKX 211728
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves well east of the area with high pressure
approaching from the west today. High pressure ridge continues
building in tonight. A cold front approaches Saturday and moves
through Saturday evening. High pressure will briefly return
again on Sunday before a stronger frontal system moves through
on Monday. Weak high pressure will return on Tuesday, with
another low pressure system possible for mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Not much change with forecast grids. Forecast overall on track.
Have seen some gusts around 45 to 50 mph for parts of the
region. Slight downward trend with winds expected for this
afternoon.
Key Messages...
* NW winds 25-30G35-45mph expected through this afternoon.
A vigorous shortwave entering western portions of the local
Tri-State slides through the area thru this morning and then east
this afternoon.
Main story for today will be gusty winds. NW winds
25-30G35-45mph already develop this morning with rapid
tightening of pressure gradient and modest shot of caa in wake
of low pressure.
Overall, marginal NW wind advisory potential today, during pre-
green-up phase, should limit widespread wind impacts. Winds
subside fairly quickly this evening as shortwave ridging quickly
build in.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies this afternoon, with temps
slightly above seasonable in offshore flow. Decent radiational
cooling conditions across outlying areas tonight, allowing low
temps to fall well down into the 20s. Otherwise lows in the 30s
for city/coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...
* W/NW winds 15-25G30-40mph late Sat/Sat Eve
* Quick shot of polar air Sat Night into Sun AM
* Next chance of a soaking rain (brief wintry mix interior) Sun
Night into Mon
Active northern stream with PAC/polar shortwave approaching on
Sat and crossing Sat night. This followed by shortwave ridging
Sun ahead of deepening PAC trough/closed low over the upper
Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes, that approaches
the area on Monday.
Models have trended a bit stronger with the interacting
polar/pac shortwaves and resultant polar front approaching
Saturday and crossing Saturday evening. This feature is
moisture starved, but improved dynamics and even a bit of
instability do present a better chance for iso-sct shower
activity, particularly for areas N&W of NYC.
Otherwise, mild and breezy conditions (SW winds 15-25G25-35mph)
develop ahead of the cold front Sat aft with quick shot of waa
and deep mixing, giving way to glancing shot of polar air Sat
eve/night on gusty NW G30-40mph in wake of front.
Brief ridging surface/aloft Sun, in wake of this system with
temps running slightly below seasonable.
A stronger frontal system quickly approaches Sun Night/Mon
associated with vigorous closed low moving through the upper
Mississippi River Valley/Great Lakes Sun night. Approaching
shortwave and 55-60kt llj aid lift of +1-2 STD PWAT gulf moisture
over an approaching warm front to the south, increasing the
likelihood of rain for the city/coast Sun Night into Monday AM.
Across the interior, thermal profiles primed by recent polar
airmass intrusion, could support a period of snow or a wintry
mix at the onset Sun Night/early Mon AM, before transitioning to
rain. Any snow/wintry mix accum would be light, with NBM probs
for far interior under 10% for 1" and 20 to 30% for > 0.1" at
this time. In addition, potential for a period of moderate to
heavy rain as well for eastern portions of the region Monday AM
(NBM prob of 20-30% for greater than 1" of rain) as WCB develops
with more favorable ulj/llj lift.
Drying conds Monday afternoon in wake of cold front/developing
triple pint low.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pres will depart Mon ngt, with any lingering pcpn rapidly
tapering off per the consensus fcst. Timing attm is before midnight.
A developing wly flow could limit low temps. There is a good
discrepancy with the MEX in some of the outlying locations so there
could be some colder pockets than the NBM is indicating.
Despite the cold temps aloft with the GFS around -5C at h85 on Tue,
wly flow and sunshine should promote good mixing and yield high
temps aoa climo. The NBM was used.
The GFS and ECMWF have a weak low passing S of the cwa on Wed. The
NBM has around a 30 pop for this feature, which seams reasonable
attm. The ECMWF does take the low to the benchmark at 18Z Wed, but
the sys is modeled to be progressive and the daytime timing will not
help with snow chances as well. GFS track is further S.
Will go with fair and cooler wx for Thu. There is a lot of
uncertainty this far out, with the suggestion in the GFS that some
shrtwv energy will traverse the region. Skeptical at this point
considering the more amplified yet benign ECMWF, so kept the fcst
dry.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. High pressure gradually builds towards the area through
this evening. A weak frontal system approaches on Saturday.
NW wind 15-25 kt with gusts 35-40 kt into the afternoon. Winds and
gusts begin to decrease late this afternoon and early this evening.
Winds will become W and then SW while weakening quickly
overnight. SW winds begin to increase Saturday morning with
gusts up to 20 kt late morning and early afternoon, increasing
to around 25 kt in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few peak gusts up to 40 kt this morning this afternoon.
End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Slight chance of a shower, mainly NW
of NYC. SW gusts in the afternoon becoming NW in the evening,
20-30 kt.
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night and Monday: Becoming IFR with rain. Possible onset as
snow for KSWF. S gusts 15-20kt near the coast on Monday.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The gale warning for all waters in effect until 8pm this
evening, with gusts up to 35 to 40 kt expected on all waters
mainly from late morning into early afternoon in strong NW flow.
Conditions lower to SCA tonight, gradual weakening of the
pressure gradient. Ocean zones will linger longer with SCA
conditions.
Sub advisory conditions for Saturday morning, then winds and
seas build in a SW flow. Advisory conditions mainly on the ocean
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Elsewhere, a few
gusts to 25 kt possible during Saturday night. Sub-SCA conds for
Sunday afternoon and night as a high pressure ridge shifts
through. The next potential for SCA conds is then on Monday
ahead of a frontal system, particularly on the ocean. Elevated
seas may linger through a good portion of Tuesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong NW flow frequently gusting to 35-45 mph and RH quickly
lowering to 25-30 percent expected today, after a wetting rain
of 1/2 to 1 inch overnight. Fuel conditions will be re-
evaluated with land managers this morning to determine the
potential of elevated risk of fire growth/spread this afternoon.
So far, with collab with NY land managers, SPS for rapid fire
spread issued for Long Island where rainfall totals were mostly
near quarter inch or less. SPS in effect until 7pm this evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 to 3/4 inches of rain possible for Sunday Night into
Monday.
No significant hydrologic impacts expected through middle of next
week at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV