303
FXUS61 KOKX 212151
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
551 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The high pressure ridge continues building in tonight. A cold
front will move through Saturday evening. High pressure returns
briefly Sunday before another frontal system impacts the area
Sunday night through Monday evening. Weak high pressure once again
returns briefly Monday night into Tuesday before another weak low
passes to the south of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds have moved east of the region as seen on the visibility
satellite imagery, as low pressure continues to track east.
Updated cloud cover this evening, and minor changes to the
winds, temperatures, and dew points for current conditions.
High pressure continues to move in tonight. Winds become light
and with mostly clear sky conditions, radiational cooling will
be optimized. This should allow for a vast range in low
temperatures from the lower 40s within NYC to mid 20s over parts
of the rural areas, including the Pine Barrens of Long Island.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves offshore Saturday. A cold front will be
approaching from the west. Light surface winds with variable
direction become more SW and increase in the afternoon with
gusts developing as well.
Ahead of the cold front, a few rain showers could develop across
the region. Went a little above NBM with POPs after seeing
several mesoscale models depicting discrete echoes of
reflectivity, representing small areas of rain showers
traversing the area Saturday. The rain shower timing will be
mid Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
The abundance of clouds will limit high temperatures despite low
level warm air advection. Used a MAV/MET blend, manually
increased a degree for the interior. The high temperature
forecast ranges from the lower 50s to near 60, warmest across
parts of interior and NE NJ and coolest along the immediate
coast. The immediate coast will have more onshore and maritime
influence.
For Saturday night, the cold front moves east of the region, and
winds will eventually become more NW. Cold air advection will
occur in the low levels and allow for more mixed boundary layer.
The gusty winds will allow for less vast range of low
temperatures, only ranging from the lower 30s across the coast
to low to mid 20s far north and west of NYC.
A note about wind gusts. Models have recently underestimated
wind gusts and from BUFKIT soundings, peak gusts Saturday
afternoon through Saturday will likely be near 5 to 10 mph higher
than forecast at times. Peak gusts up to 35 to 40 mph possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The northern stream remains active into Sunday and possibly early
Monday as the flow is near zonal and weak/low amplitude shortwaves
track across the northern portion of the country.
Beginning Monday, and through the upcoming week, the upper flow
become much more highly amplified with the trough remaining over the
eastern portions of the nation, and a ridge building along the west
coast and tracking slowly east through the week, and the eastern
trough moves off the coast by late in the week. There are no polar
intrusions of cold air expected and temperatures will mainly be near
normals levels, with the exception of Monday and Monday night, and
again Friday and Friday night when temperatures will be several
degrees above normal. Precipitation moves into the region Sunday
night as a warm front moves toward the area with southerly winds
ahead of the low. Lingering cold air across the Lower Hudson Valley
and across portions of the interior will allow for a period of
wintry weather Sunday night, then transitioning to all rain Monday
as the warmer air moves northward. With the amplified trough over
the east coast early next week the next system will be passing to
the south, and the track is a little uncertain.
Once again there will be interior colder air Tuesday night and the
precipitation may begin as a wintry mix. there and rain along the
coast. Dry weather will then dominate Wednesday night into Friday.
Through the extended used the NBM deterministic temperatures and
probabilities with little variance expected.
However, did lean toward higher winds and gusts, using the 50th and
90th percentiles with strong winds expected with the low pressure
systems impacting the area.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR. High pressure gradually builds towards the area through
this evening. A weak frontal system approaches on Saturday.
NW wind 15-25 kt with gusts 35-40 kt for the remainder of the
afternoon. Winds and gusts begin to decrease early this evening with
gusts ending 23-02z. Winds will then become W and then SW while
weakening quickly overnight. SW winds increase Saturday morning with
gusts up to 20 kt late morning and early afternoon, increasing to
around 25 kt by late afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts this evening may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Slight chance of a shower, mainly NW
of NYC. SW gusts in the afternoon becoming NW in the evening,
20-30 kt.
Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night and Monday: Becoming IFR with rain. Possible onset as
snow for KSWF. S gusts 15-25kt, strongest near the coast on Monday.
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Wednesday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to the winds and seas at this time. The Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for the forecast waters.
SCA levels gusts continue into this evening, lasting longest
farther east. SCA level ocean seas continue through this evening
and then linger overnight east of Fire Island Inlet.
A brief period of sub-SCA conditions expected before daybreak
Saturday, continuing through the morning hours. SCA conditions
re-develop on the ocean Saturday afternoon, eventually becoming
widespread across all waters Saturday night.
A strong and gusty northwest will be continuing across the forecast
waters behind a departing low pressure system. Small craft advisory
level gusts may be on-going across all the forecast waters early
Sunday morning. Winds and gusts will be subsiding Sunday morning as
high pressure builds in from the west, however, advisory conditions
will remain on the ocean waters into Sunday afternoon. Winds and
seas then remain below advisory levels Sunday night. Another low
pressure system approaches for Monday, and increasing southeast
winds ahead of the low may gust to advisory levels across the
forecast waters by late Monday morning, with ocean seas building to
advisory levels. And by late Monday afternoon a few gusts on the
ocean waters may be near gale force. This will be dependent on the
strength of the low and how quickly the system tracks, before winds
begin to diminish as a cold front moves into the waters. Behind the
cold front winds shift to the southwest, and ocean seas will be
subsiding Monday night through Tuesday evening, before falling below
advisory levels. Winds and seas remain below advisory levels across
the forecast waters Wednesday and Wednesday night with a weak
pressure gradient across the region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
NW flow frequently gusting to 30 to 35 mph and RH quickly
lowering to 25-30 percent expected, after a wetting rain of 1/2 to
1 inch overnight. Winds on a downward trend.
With collab with NY land managers, SPS for rapid fire spread
issued for Long Island where rainfall totals were mostly near
quarter inch or less. SPS in effect continues until 7pm this
evening.
Winds not nearly as gusty for Saturday and become more SW,
allowing for low level moisture increase. Min RH will not be as
low more in the 30 to 45 percent range. Gusts up to near 20 to
30 mph, mainly in the afternoon. Forecast conditions Saturday
less conducive to fire spread compared to previous day.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Moisture limited cold front moving across with rainfall amounts
under a quarter of an inch Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
No hydrologic issues expected.
No significant hydrologic impacts expected through middle of next
week at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-
338.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET