242
FXUS61 KOKX 221457
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1057 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a weak cold frontal passage this evening and fair weather on
Sunday, precipitation will overspread the area Sunday night and
Monday. Weakening low pressure will track across eastern Canada
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with another weak low passing to
the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure then builds
in for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BUFKIT models show late day mixing when winds veer to more WSW. The
high temperature could very well get achieved late in the afternoon
with this westerly flow adiabatic mixing down to the surface.
Morning temperatures running a few degrees below forecast on
average. NBM50/NBM75 blend used for max temperature forecast. This
is a few degrees warmer than the previous forecast for most
locations, mainly within the interior and western portions of the
region. Eastern LI and Southern CT coast nearly the same with
previous forecast regarding high temperatures with more maritime
influence.
Range of max temperatures still lower 50s to lower 60s for most
locations. NE NJ and parts of NYC Metro have highs getting to
64.
Minor updates to POPs. Still have much of mesoscale models with
their reflectivity indicating discrete echoes moving across the
region this afternoon into early evening, in a window between 2PM
and 9PM EDT. Slight increases were made to POPs. Same POP gradient
as previously forecast, highest north and west of NYC and lowest for
Eastern Long Island.
A cold front over the eastern Great Lakes this morning will
approach the area today, preceded by a prefrontal trough this
afternoon. Mild SW-S winds will steadily increase this morning,
becoming gusty in the afternoon as winds veer more westerly.
Mid and high level clouds increasing across the area will result
in filtered sunshine. The llvls are dry though so no pcpn
expected until the front arrives late this aftn and eve.
Mainly a dry fropa is modeled with the moisture starved sys. Both
the ECMWF and GFS drive enough forcing thru to produce a few shwrs
or sprinkles, with the NAM notably drier. For the grids, blended the
21Z SREF with the NBM to get an output that looked reasonable.
Chance pops W and slight chance to no pops ern areas.
CAA on a gusty NW flow tngt drops temps into the 20s for the
entire area. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected the first half of
tonight, before gradually subsiding.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry conditions return with the cold front east of the region for
mid to late this evening. Dry conditions continue overnight.
CAA on a gusty NW flow tonight drops temps into the 20s for the
entire area. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected the first half of
tonight, before gradually subsiding.
High pres ridges across the region on Sun so fair wx. Temps cooler
with h85 around -5 before warming late in the day. WAA aloft will
result in increasing clouds Sun eve, and as the theta-e ridge
builds in, pcpn should develop overnight. Enough cold air across
the interior for a mix of rain and snow before changing over to
all rain in the lljet pcpn regime. The rain exits the area
fairly quickly on Mon with the dry slot coming thru. There could
be some residual dz and clouds before the wly flow scours it
out in the aftn. Because the sys is still a few days away, fcst
pops are a bit spread out. Expect these to narrow a bit as the
timing is better resolved.
A few shwrs might be possible Mon ngt as the upr trof approaches
with steepening lapse rates and dpva, but the airmass is so dry it
looks like it will be difficult to get pcpn attm. Stuck with the NBM
pops for now which is mostly dry.
The NBM was used for temps thru the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This will be a relatively benign period for the area with the mean
upper trough residing across eastern Canada and the Northeast.
Heights begin to build toward the end of the period with a more
zonal flow developing. Expect temperatures during at or just above
normal in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe before warming up
on Friday. Next chance for precipitation will be late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a piece of jet energy races across the Ohio Valley
and off the Mid Atlantic coast. The forecast area resides at the
northern periphery of what is initially a weak low. There could be a
brief mix of wet snow at the onset across some of the higher
elevations well north and west of the NYC metro. Liquid equivalent
amounts at this time look to be under a quarter of an inch.
Stayed close to NBM guidance with no significant targets of
opportunity at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches from the west today. The front will be
preceded by a pre-frontal trough that passes through in the
afternoon, followed by an evening cold frontal passage.
VFR. S-SW winds continue to gradually increase with gusts up to 20
kt early this afternoon, increasing to around 25 kt by late
afternoon. Winds will then become NW in the evening behind the cold
front with similar gusts.
There is a low chance of showers for the metro terminals and
Lower Hudson Valley terminals this afternoon into early this
evening. However, kept the mention out of the eastern terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Onset of gusts and wind shifts this afternoon into this evening may
vary by 1-2 hours. Gusts could be more occasional in the early
evening hours Saturday before the cold frontal passage.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. NW G20kt in the morning.
Sunday Night and Monday: Becoming IFR with rain. Possible onset as
snow for KSWF. S winds G15-25kt, strongest near the coast on Monday.
Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20 kt possible.
Wednesday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SW flow will increase and seas will build on the ocean this aftn. A
SCA has been issued for the ocean starting at 18Z. Aft a cfp early
this eve, NW winds pick up and a sca has been issued for all waters
for tngt. Seas may linger aoa 5 ft on the ocean Sun mrng, but high
pres building in will keep winds lgt. A SCA may be needed Mon,
especially on the ocean, as a frontal sys tracks thru the area.
Lingering seas around 5 ft on the ocean Tuesday will subside below
SCA by evening. The period will then be marked by a westerly flow
with sub-SCA conditions through the mid week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected thru the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC/JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC/DW
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW