274
FXUS61 KOKX 221809
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After a weak cold frontal passage this evening and fair weather on
Sunday, precipitation will overspread the area Sunday night and
Monday. Weakening low pressure will track across eastern Canada
Tuesday into Tuesday night, with another weak low passing to
the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure then builds
in for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
500mb trough approaches from the west this afternoon. Southerly
flow advecting in warmer air, mild day before some rain showers
approach getting into latter half of this afternoon.
Surface pre-frontal trough moves across late this afternoon,
with more westerly component in winds after its passage. Farther
west a cold front will be approaching with associated parent
low well within Southeast Canada, in Northern Quebec.
Mesoscale models with their 12Z runs continue to indicate discrete
echoes of reflectivity traversing the area late this afternoon as
shown the previous 00Z runs. Increased POPs relative to previous
forecast but same gradient as apparent as with previous forecast.
Actual observed Doppler radar reflectivity indicates echoes of 10 to
30 dBZ range traversing eastern PA. These should arrive within the
forecast region around NYC Metro and north and west over the next
few hours 2 to 5PM.
Temperatures already ranging from mid 50s to lower 60s. Expecting a
few more degrees of warming but overall a little warmer range than
previous forecast. The range is from mid 50s to mid 60s. Mid 60s
mainly confined to parts of NE NJ.
BUFKIT models show late day mixing when winds veer to more WSW. The
high temperature could very well get achieved late in the afternoon
with this westerly flow adiabatic mixing down to the surface.
For tonight, mid level trough moves across with cold front
moving across. This will be during the evening hours. Showers
early then dry late evening and overnight. Cold air advection
late evening and for rest of tonight with NW gusty winds.
500mb trough axis moves across this evening. This moves east of the
area thereafter through the rest of tonight. Region remains in 500mb
NW flow. Some positive vorticity advection in the mid levels along
with coherent discrete echo reflectivity within mesoscale models
from multiple model runs so increased POPs to have chance for entire
region and some likely POPs mainly for Orange County before 8PM.
Narrowed the chance POPs to occur mainly 6-10PM.
Cold front moves across this evening generally between 8 and 11PM.
Cold front expected to be southeast of Long Island after 11PM
and then the front will continue moving out into the Atlantic
overnight. Winds at the surface transition from gusty WSW ahead
of the cold front to more gusty NW flow behind the cold front.
Dry and cold air advection then increase.
Models indicate a significant 850 mb temperature decrease of around
6 to 7 degrees C between 8PM tonight and 2AM Sunday. 850mb
temperatures thereafter going into early Sunday morning rise
slightly for western half of the forecast region and remain
nearly constant for eastern half of the forecast region.
With the gusty winds, expect a less vast range of low temperatures.
The lows will only vary from mainly the mid 20s for much of the
interior to the lower 30s along the coast. This used a blend of
MAV/MET/consensus of raw model data with slight adjustments up near
Westhampton NY.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions return with the cold front east of the region for
mid to late this evening. Dry conditions continue overnight.
CAA on a gusty NW flow tonight drops temps into the 20s for the
entire area. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected the first half of
tonight, before gradually subsiding.
High pres ridges across the region on Sun so fair wx. Temps cooler
with h85 around -5 before warming late in the day. WAA aloft will
result in increasing clouds Sun eve, and as the theta-e ridge
builds in, pcpn should develop overnight. Enough cold air across
the interior for a mix of rain and snow before changing over to
all rain in the lljet pcpn regime. The rain exits the area
fairly quickly on Mon with the dry slot coming thru. There could
be some residual dz and clouds before the wly flow scours it
out in the aftn. Because the sys is still a few days away, fcst
pops are a bit spread out. Expect these to narrow a bit as the
timing is better resolved.
A few shwrs might be possible Mon ngt as the upr trof approaches
with steepening lapse rates and dpva, but the airmass is so dry it
looks like it will be difficult to get pcpn attm. Stuck with the NBM
pops for now which is mostly dry.
The NBM was used for temps thru the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
This will be a relatively benign period for the area with the mean
upper trough residing across eastern Canada and the Northeast.
Heights begin to build toward the end of the period with a more
zonal flow developing. Expect temperatures during at or just above
normal in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe before warming up
on Friday. Next chance for precipitation will be late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a piece of jet energy races across the Ohio Valley
and off the Mid Atlantic coast. The forecast area resides at the
northern periphery of what is initially a weak low. There could be a
brief mix of wet snow at the onset across some of the higher
elevations well north and west of the NYC metro. Liquid equivalent
amounts at this time look to be under a quarter of an inch.
Stayed close to NBM guidance with no significant targets of
opportunity at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes through this evening.
VFR. Mainly SW-WSW winds with gusts around 25kt this afternoon.
Winds shift NW and increase by a few kt this evening. Winds then
diminish late tonight and through the day Sunday.
PROB30 for showers with brief MVFR vsbys for all but KISP and KGON
late day/early evening. Any showers before around 23z likely would
not cause vsby restrictions.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A brief shower will be possible as early as 19z, but likely would
not cause vsby restrictions before 23z.
Chance that conds remain VFR in in any shower. PROB30 timing and
subsequent wind shift to NW may be off by an hour.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday aftn/eve: VFR.
Late Sunday Night and Monday: Becoming IFR with rain. Possible onset
as snow for KSWF. S winds G15-25kt, strongest near the coast on
Monday.
Tuesday: VFR. WSW winds G20 kt possible.
Wednesday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SW flow will increase and seas will build on the ocean this aftn. A
SCA has been issued for the ocean starting at 18Z. Aft a cfp early
this eve, NW winds pick up and a sca has been issued for all waters
for tngt. Seas may linger aoa 5 ft on the ocean Sun mrng, but high
pres building in will keep winds lgt. A SCA may be needed Mon,
especially on the ocean, as a frontal sys tracks thru the area.
Lingering seas around 5 ft on the ocean Tuesday will subside below
SCA by evening. The period will then be marked by a westerly flow
with sub-SCA conditions through the mid week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected thru the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW