073
FXUS61 KOKX 231150
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
750 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today, followed by a frontal system that
will impact the area tonight and Monday. A weak area of low
pressure passes to the south and east late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the southwest on
Thursday, passing to the south on Friday as a weak disturbance
passes to the north. A frontal system may impact the region
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A high pres ridge builds across the cwa today. Winds will be
strongest in the mrng until the gradient relaxes. Some lake clouds
may reach nwrn portions of the cwa, especially in the mrng, but
subsidence will be a limiting factor. Otherwise, high clouds begin
to overspread the region by late in the aftn. The NBM was followed
for temps, which yield highs in the 40s to around 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thickening high clouds this eve, then increasing thetae allows for
pcpn to develop late. Across the interior, a mix of rain, sleet, and
snow is expected, changing to all rain Mon mrng as the 50kt lljet
warms the airmass. There could be some pockets of fzra across the
interior before the changeover, but the coverage and probability are
too low attm to include it in the fcst or issue an advy.
Went with a blend of the HREF and HIRESWarw for temps tngt thru
16Z Mon, which was just about the coldest soln that could be
found. Despite use of the colder data, very few pots remain aob
freezing while pcpn occurs, reinforcing the limited the fzra
threat attm. Best chance is nwrn interior spots from Orange
county to Passaic. Snow and sleet on the front end still
possible despite the warmer sfc temps due to the temp profile
aloft, but this rises significantly by 12Z Mon, after which any
mix rapidly transitions to rain based on the current model
timing of the sys.
There could be an isold tstm late mrng into the aftn as a strong jet
streak approaches. This will at a minimum enhance rain chances thru
the day and keep the pcpn from clearing out aft the initial waa
surge.
S winds likely to pick up on the srn coast as the associated weak
low tracks invof LI. The exact track of the low will determine
how far N the extent of the winds get, but right now it looks
like LI has the best shot of being in this zone. Possible for
gusts over 40kt, especially if there is convection.
The area dries out from W to E late in the aftn and into the
first part of Mon ngt as the narrow ribbon of moisture is
shunted offshore. Well mixed wly component flow Mon ngt so
likely windy again. With h85 around 35 kt looks blw advy lvls
attm.
H85 around -3C on Tue, but with a deep well mixed wly flow,
highs progged in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Still looking at rather quiet period as a longwave trough over
eastern Canada south into the Mid Atlantic states on Wednesday lifts
out to the north and east through the end of the week. The forecast
area remains on the northern periphery of weak low pressure passing
to the south and east late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Precipitation chances remain low with a chance of rain and/or snow
inland at the start going over to rain. Temperatures are marginal
and any snow accumulation looks to be light at best across the
interior. The GFS the last 24h as trended toward a deeper trough
with the associated jet energy passing farther to the south off the
Mid Atlantic coast. This keeps the low far south with no
precipitation. However, this is the more progressive and
southernmost solution of the 00Z operational models. Wednesday looks
to be the coldest day of the week, with lows ranging from around
freezing inland to 35 to 40 at the coast, with highs 45 to 50. This
is close to normal.
For the second half of the week, temperatures warm into the 50s with
the warmest day on Friday. However, there is some uncertainty with
northern branch energy Friday into Saturday diving in from the NW
out of central Canada while the mean upper trough is lifting out of
the Northeast. Confluent flow between the two streams could allow
for a more southward frontal zone and a quick shot of colder air to
settle briefly south across the Northeast Friday night before
lifting back to the north over the weekend with a chance of
overrunning precipitation. Right now, there are low chances for rain
on Saturday with temperatures well above freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west today and then passes to the
east this evening. A warm front approaches from the SW late Sunday
night.
Mainly VFR, with MVFR/IFR conditions developing after 06Z with the
onset rain. The precipitation may start off as snow or a rain/snow
mix at KSWF before going over to all rain by 12Z Monday.
NW wind gusts around 20kt will gradually subside through this
morning with gusts likely lost by afternoon. Winds will veer around
to the S/SW in the afternoon with a seabreeze component likely at
the coastal terminals by late afternoon/early evening. Winds
increase and back to the SE after 06Z with gusts up to 20kt
toward 12Z Monday. Chance of southerly LLWS at the eastern
terminals MOnday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may become occasional to start this morning.
Timing of wind gusts dropping off later this morning and wind shifts
this afternoon may vary by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: IFR with rain. Possible onset as snow for KSWF. S winds
G15-25kt, strongest near the coast on Monday. Chance of LLWS at
the eastern terminals in the morning.
Tuesday: VFR. WSW winds G20 kt possible.
Wednesday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers.
Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas gradually come down today, and the sca will
expire gradually across the waters. Winds and waves pick up
again late tngt, especially on the ocean. A sca could be needed
for very later there, transitioning into sly gales on Mon. A
watch has been issues for all ern waters as well as the ocean.
Lowest confidence across the Sound attm. The exact track of low
pres will determine the nrn extent of gales.
Winds and seas will be below advisory levels across the forecast
waters Tuesday night through Thursday. With an increasing W/SW flow
late Thursday night into Friday ocean seas may build to near 5 feet,
especially for the waters east of Fire Island Inlet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS has been coordinated with the state of CT and surrounding
offices for today. Strongest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the
mrng, diminishing significantly thru the day. Min RH around 20
this aftn.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ331-332-340-
345-355.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ335-
338.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW