178
FXUS61 KOKX 231817
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
217 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today, followed by a frontal system that
will impact the area tonight and Monday. A weak area of low
pressure passes to the south and east late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the southwest on
Thursday, passing to the south on Friday as a weak disturbance
passes to the north. A frontal system may impact the region
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Hourly temperatures and
dewpoints have been adjusted with this update to account for the
latest obs and trends.
A high pres ridge builds across the cwa today. Winds will be
strongest this morning until the pressure gradient relaxes.
Sunny, then high clouds begin to overspread the region by late
in the aftn. The NBM was followed for temps, which yield highs
in the 40s to around 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thickening high clouds this eve, then increasing thetae allows for
pcpn to develop late. Across the interior, a mix of rain, sleet, and
snow is expected, changing to all rain Mon mrng as the 50kt lljet
warms the airmass. There could be some pockets of fzra across the
interior before the changeover, but the coverage and probability are
too low attm to include it in the fcst or issue an advy.
Went with a blend of the HREF and HIRESWarw for temps tngt thru
16Z Mon, which was just about the coldest soln that could be
found. Despite use of the colder data, very few pots remain aob
freezing while pcpn occurs, reinforcing the limited the fzra
threat attm. Best chance is nwrn interior spots from Orange
county to Passaic. Snow and sleet on the front end still
possible despite the warmer sfc temps due to the temp profile
aloft, but this rises significantly by 12Z Mon, after which any
mix rapidly transitions to rain based on the current model
timing of the sys.
There could be an isold tstm late mrng into the aftn as a strong jet
streak approaches. This will at a minimum enhance rain chances thru
the day and keep the pcpn from clearing out aft the initial waa
surge.
S winds likely to pick up on the srn coast as the associated weak
low tracks invof LI. The exact track of the low will determine
how far N the extent of the winds get, but right now it looks
like LI has the best shot of being in this zone. Possible for
gusts over 40kt, especially if there is convection.
The area dries out from W to E late in the aftn and into the
first part of Mon ngt as the narrow ribbon of moisture is
shunted offshore. Well mixed wly component flow Mon ngt so
likely windy again. With h85 around 35 kt looks blw advy lvls
attm.
H85 around -3C on Tue, but with a deep well mixed wly flow,
highs progged in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still looking at rather quiet period as a longwave trough over
eastern Canada south into the Mid Atlantic states on Wednesday lifts
out to the north and east through the end of the week. The forecast
area remains on the northern periphery of weak low pressure passing
to the south and east late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Precipitation chances remain low with a chance of rain and/or snow
inland at the start going over to rain. Temperatures are marginal
and any snow accumulation looks to be light at best across the
interior. The GFS the last 24h as trended toward a deeper trough
with the associated jet energy passing farther to the south off the
Mid Atlantic coast. This keeps the low far south with no
precipitation. However, this is the more progressive and
southernmost solution of the 00Z operational models. Wednesday looks
to be the coldest day of the week, with lows ranging from around
freezing inland to 35 to 40 at the coast, with highs 45 to 50. This
is close to normal.
For the second half of the week, temperatures warm into the 50s with
the warmest day on Friday. However, there is some uncertainty with
northern branch energy Friday into Saturday diving in from the NW
out of central Canada while the mean upper trough is lifting out of
the Northeast. Confluent flow between the two streams could allow
for a more southward frontal zone and a quick shot of colder air to
settle briefly south across the Northeast Friday night before
lifting back to the north over the weekend with a chance of
overrunning precipitation. Right now, there are low chances for rain
on Saturday with temperatures well above freezing.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system approaches into tonight, moving across early
Monday and then northeast of the area Monday night.
Precipitation event coming up will be mainly in the form of
rain late tonight through Monday, but some possible mixing with
sleet at the onset.
For KSWF, a wintry mix of snow and rain expected late tonight
into Monday morning, then plain rain. There will be potential
for some sleet as well for a brief period early Monday morning.
The rain becomes more intermittent and not as continuous for
late Monday afternoon.
VFR continues through much of tonight. Then MVFR to IFR for late
tonight into early Monday morning. Mainly IFR expected for much of
Monday with some improvement to MVFR late Monday afternoon into
Monday night. Expecting some LIFR for Monday as well.
NW winds around 10 kt becoming more WNW this afternoon. Gusts
linger for another few hours at KBDR, KISP and KGON where NW
gusts to near 20 kt expected. Winds eventually transition to
more southerly flow late this afternoon into tonight for most
terminals and remain southerly through rest of TAF period.
Sustained wind speeds generally near 5-10 kt, increasing late
tonight into Monday to 10-15 kt along coast, without much change
farther inland. Gusts near coast near 20 kt, some gusts near 25
to 30 kt for some coastal terminals for Monday. Gusts lower
slightly Monday afternoon and may become more intermittent.
Low level wind shear expected for a time period Monday, 12-20Z,
with 40-45 kt SW winds at 2kft just for some coastal terminals,
KJFK, KLGA, KISP and KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from
TAF. Categories could fluctuate back and forth between MVFR and
IFR as well as LIFR late tonight through Monday.
Timing of wind shift to more southerly flow could be 1-2 hours
off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon-Monday night: IFR with rain, tapering off late
day into evening. SW wind gusts near 20 kt for afternoon.
Improvement to MVFR late day into evening, with eventual
improvement to VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR to IFR with a wintry mix
late Tuesday night. W wind gusts near 20 kt during the day.
Wednesday: Possible wintry mix early with MVFR to IFR.
Precipitation transitions to mainly rain with MVFR to IFR
possible before tapering off in afternoon. VFR returns at
night. Afternoon NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas gradually come down today, and the sca will
expire gradually across the waters. Winds and waves pick up
again late tngt, especially on the ocean. A sca could be needed
for very later there, transitioning into sly gales on Mon. A
watch has been issued for all ern waters as well as the ocean.
Lowest confidence across the Sound attm. The exact track of low
pres will determine the nrn extent of gales.
Winds and seas will be below advisory levels across the forecast
waters Tuesday night through Thursday. With an increasing W/SW flow
late Thursday night into Friday ocean seas may build to near 5 feet,
especially for the waters east of Fire Island Inlet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS has been coordinated with the state of CT and surrounding
offices for today. Strongest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the
mrng, diminishing significantly thru the day. Min RH around 20
this aftn.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/JC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW