929
FXUS61 KOKX 232337
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure impacts the region tonight into Monday, followed by weak high pressure on Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure passes to the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure then builds in to the southwest of the region Wednesday night and Thursday, moving off the southeast coast Friday. A frontal system may impact the region next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Under thickening high cloud cover, and with a southerly flow, temperatures have not fallen off as quickly as forecast, and dew points along the coast have increased. Updated for these current parameters, and trends. Otherwise no changes were made. Primary low center of an approaching storm system tracks east across the Great Lakes tonight. A secondary low center or triple point along an occluded boundary begins to take shape over the Mid- Atlantic Region. This low, along with an attendant warm front, head our way late tonight along with the northeast side of a theta-ridge axis. The increasing lift and moisture bring a likelihood of precipitation over generally the western half of the forecast area towards daybreak. While some southern/coastal areas could see a brief wintry mix at the onset, precip will otherwise be rain. The wintry mix will however last a longer time inland north of the city with little snow accumulation by sunrise. Left precip types as rain or snow, but brief sleet will also be possible. As for the threat of freezing rain, there appears to be a small window of time where surface temperatures in parts of Orange County could be freezing while an elevated warm nose pushing in from the SW precludes snow and sleet. Not enough coverage and potential for advisory consideration at this time, but this could be addressed with a Special Weather Statement later in time if warranted.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Any wintry mix north of the city changes to plain rain by mid- morning Monday as temperatures warm up. Meanwhile, rain spreads eastward through the rest of the forecast area early on. The secondary low center shifts through the area during the afternoon. A 50-60kt 925mb low level jet precedes its passage and enhances rainfall over the eastern half of the forecast area with its upward forcing. Rainfall therefore more on the moderate side in intensity during the morning into early afternoon from around the city to points east. It may get gusty during this same period for these same areas with the low level jet passing through, but given the strength of the jet with a strong enough low level inversion, gusts should prevail below advisory thresholds. Rain otherwise ends west to east during the mid to late afternoon hours. Models limit CAPE to well offshore, so no mention of thunder in the forecast. NBM looked good for temperatures. Weak high pressure replaces the departing storm system Monday night and Tuesday with dry weather. 850mb temps on Tuesday averaging around -2C, but with a decent westerly flow, blended in warmer MAV MOS with NBM with local adjustments for highs
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A upper level high amplitude longwave trough will be over the eastern states Tuesday night into Wednesday night with a high amplitude ridge over the western states. The trough begins to move offshore late Wednesday night as heights rise Wednesday night into Saturday as the upper ridge moves slowly eastward, and gradually weakens Saturday. With a less amplified ridge a shortwave will be moving rather quickly from the southwestern states Friday night and approach the Great Lakes late Sunday. The long term forecast Tuesday into Friday remains generally unchanged, with a weak low passing to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Then high pressure dominates Wednesday night into Friday. Then a warm frontal boundary develops from low pressure moving into the upper midwest Friday night, with some uncertainty as to where this boundary will develop. However, recent guidance suggests that the frontal forcing will be in the vicinity of the region Friday night, and have introduced slight chances of precipitation Friday night into Saturday. The warm front may move north Saturday with the area becoming warm sectored. Saturday night into Sunday the surface low may be approaching the region with increased chances of precipitation. There is high uncertainty with the system for next weekend, and for probabilities used the NBM guidance. For temperatures there is a lot of variance beginning Friday night into next weekend, and this is due to the uncertainty with the placement of the low. For now did lean toward warmer temperatures, toward the 75th percentile, as other guidance suggests the front will be to the north of the area. For the weather, there will be a chance of light snow across the interior Friday night, with rain along the coast. And then with the warmer air Saturday a transition to all snow is expected. And as the low approaches next weekend precipitation will be all liquid Saturday night and Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A frontal system will impact the terminals tonight through Monday. VFR continues through much of tonight. Then MVFR to IFR late tonight into early Monday morning. Mainly IFR expected for much of Monday with improvement to MVFR then VFR late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Expecting some LIFR for Monday as well. For KSWF, a wintry mix of snow and rain expected late tonight into Monday morning, then plain rain. There will be potential for some sleet as well for a brief period early Monday morning. The rain becomes more intermittent and not as continuous for late Monday afternoon. All plain rain is expected at the rest of the terminals. Southerly flow into tonight for most terminals, remaining southerly through rest of TAF period. Sustained wind speeds generally near 5-10 kt, increasing late tonight into Monday to 10-15 kt along coast, without much change farther inland. Gusts near coast near 20 kt, with some gusts near 25 to 30 kt. Gusts lower slightly Monday afternoon and may become more intermittent. Low level wind shear expected for a time period Monday, 12-20Z, with 40-45 kt SW winds at 2kft just for some coastal terminals, KJFK, KLGA, KISP and KGON. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF. Categories could fluctuate back and forth between MVFR and IFR due to rain. Chances of LIFR cigs as well .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday night: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR to IFR with a wintry mix late Tuesday night. W wind gusts near 20 kt during the day. Wednesday: Possible wintry mix early with MVFR to IFR. Precipitation transitions to mainly rain with MVFR to IFR possible before tapering off in afternoon. VFR returns at night. Afternoon NW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Thursday: VFR. Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Made some minor updates to the winds and gusts, mainly over the ocean waters, this evening. SCA remains in effect for all waters late tonight into Monday, with the ocean under an advisory through Monday night due to lingering elevated seas. Although there could be a few gusts to gale force mainly on the ocean late Monday morning to near noontime, it would be a short window when this would be possible, and a low level inversion would likely keep gales aloft during this period. After collaboration with the surrounding offices, decided to go with the advisory for this event. The SCA will probably need to be extended into Tuesday on the ocean for seas and potentially for gusts to 25 kt as well. Elsewhere, gusts probably prevail below 25kt on Tuesday. Ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet may be near 5 feet early Tuesday evening, then subside below 5 feet, while the remainder of the forecast waters will be sub advisory. Sub advisory conditions remain on the forecast waters Tuesday night through Thursday. Then with an increasing W/SW flow late Thursday night into Friday ocean seas may build to near 5 feet, especially for the waters east of Fire Island Inlet. And during Friday gusts on the eastern ocean waters may reach 25 kt. The flow weakens Friday evening, and winds and seas on the ocean waters will return to sub advisory levels.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331- 332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ335- 338. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/MET NEAR TERM...JC/MET SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JT MARINE...JC/MET HYDROLOGY...MET