929
FXUS61 KOKX 232337
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure impacts the region tonight into Monday, followed
by weak high pressure on Tuesday. A weak area of low pressure
passes to the south and east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure then builds in to the southwest of the region Wednesday
night and Thursday, moving off the southeast coast Friday. A
frontal system may impact the region next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Under thickening high cloud cover, and with a southerly flow,
temperatures have not fallen off as quickly as forecast, and dew
points along the coast have increased. Updated for these current
parameters, and trends. Otherwise no changes were made.
Primary low center of an approaching storm system tracks east
across the Great Lakes tonight. A secondary low center or triple
point along an occluded boundary begins to take shape over the
Mid- Atlantic Region. This low, along with an attendant warm
front, head our way late tonight along with the northeast side
of a theta-ridge axis. The increasing lift and moisture bring a
likelihood of precipitation over generally the western half of
the forecast area towards daybreak. While some southern/coastal
areas could see a brief wintry mix at the onset, precip will
otherwise be rain. The wintry mix will however last a longer
time inland north of the city with little snow accumulation by
sunrise. Left precip types as rain or snow, but brief sleet will
also be possible. As for the threat of freezing rain, there
appears to be a small window of time where surface temperatures
in parts of Orange County could be freezing while an elevated
warm nose pushing in from the SW precludes snow and sleet. Not
enough coverage and potential for advisory consideration at this
time, but this could be addressed with a Special Weather
Statement later in time if warranted.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Any wintry mix north of the city changes to plain rain by mid-
morning Monday as temperatures warm up. Meanwhile, rain spreads
eastward through the rest of the forecast area early on. The
secondary low center shifts through the area during the
afternoon. A 50-60kt 925mb low level jet precedes its passage
and enhances rainfall over the eastern half of the forecast area
with its upward forcing. Rainfall therefore more on the
moderate side in intensity during the morning into early
afternoon from around the city to points east. It may get gusty
during this same period for these same areas with the low level
jet passing through, but given the strength of the jet with a
strong enough low level inversion, gusts should prevail below
advisory thresholds. Rain otherwise ends west to east during the
mid to late afternoon hours. Models limit CAPE to well
offshore, so no mention of thunder in the forecast. NBM looked
good for temperatures.
Weak high pressure replaces the departing storm system Monday night
and Tuesday with dry weather. 850mb temps on Tuesday averaging
around -2C, but with a decent westerly flow, blended in warmer MAV
MOS with NBM with local adjustments for highs-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A upper level high amplitude longwave trough will be over the
eastern states Tuesday night into Wednesday night with a high
amplitude ridge over the western states. The trough begins to
move offshore late Wednesday night as heights rise Wednesday
night into Saturday as the upper ridge moves slowly eastward,
and gradually weakens Saturday. With a less amplified ridge a
shortwave will be moving rather quickly from the southwestern
states Friday night and approach the Great Lakes late Sunday.
The long term forecast Tuesday into Friday remains generally
unchanged, with a weak low passing to the south Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Then high pressure dominates Wednesday night
into Friday. Then a warm frontal boundary develops from low
pressure moving into the upper midwest Friday night, with some
uncertainty as to where this boundary will develop. However,
recent guidance suggests that the frontal forcing will be in the
vicinity of the region Friday night, and have introduced slight
chances of precipitation Friday night into Saturday. The warm
front may move north Saturday with the area becoming warm
sectored. Saturday night into Sunday the surface low may be
approaching the region with increased chances of precipitation.
There is high uncertainty with the system for next weekend, and
for probabilities used the NBM guidance. For temperatures there
is a lot of variance beginning Friday night into next weekend,
and this is due to the uncertainty with the placement of the
low. For now did lean toward warmer temperatures, toward the
75th percentile, as other guidance suggests the front will be to
the north of the area. For the weather, there will be a chance
of light snow across the interior Friday night, with rain along
the coast. And then with the warmer air Saturday a transition to
all snow is expected. And as the low approaches next weekend
precipitation will be all liquid Saturday night and Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A frontal system will impact the terminals tonight through
Monday.
VFR continues through much of tonight. Then MVFR to IFR late
tonight into early Monday morning. Mainly IFR expected for much
of Monday with improvement to MVFR then VFR late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Expecting some LIFR for Monday as
well.
For KSWF, a wintry mix of snow and rain expected late tonight
into Monday morning, then plain rain. There will be potential
for some sleet as well for a brief period early Monday morning.
The rain becomes more intermittent and not as continuous for
late Monday afternoon. All plain rain is expected at the rest of
the terminals.
Southerly flow into tonight for most terminals, remaining
southerly through rest of TAF period. Sustained wind speeds
generally near 5-10 kt, increasing late tonight into Monday to
10-15 kt along coast, without much change farther inland. Gusts
near coast near 20 kt, with some gusts near 25 to 30 kt. Gusts
lower slightly Monday afternoon and may become more intermittent.
Low level wind shear expected for a time period Monday, 12-20Z,
with 40-45 kt SW winds at 2kft just for some coastal terminals,
KJFK, KLGA, KISP and KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from
TAF. Categories could fluctuate back and forth between MVFR and
IFR due to rain. Chances of LIFR cigs as well
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR to IFR with a wintry mix
late Tuesday night. W wind gusts near 20 kt during the day.
Wednesday: Possible wintry mix early with MVFR to IFR.
Precipitation transitions to mainly rain with MVFR to IFR
possible before tapering off in afternoon. VFR returns at
night. Afternoon NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Made some minor updates to the winds and gusts, mainly over the
ocean waters, this evening.
SCA remains in effect for all waters late tonight into Monday,
with the ocean under an advisory through Monday night due to
lingering elevated seas. Although there could be a few gusts to
gale force mainly on the ocean late Monday morning to near
noontime, it would be a short window when this would be
possible, and a low level inversion would likely keep gales
aloft during this period. After collaboration with the
surrounding offices, decided to go with the advisory for this
event. The SCA will probably need to be extended into Tuesday on
the ocean for seas and potentially for gusts to 25 kt as well.
Elsewhere, gusts probably prevail below 25kt on Tuesday.
Ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet may be near 5 feet early Tuesday
evening, then subside below 5 feet, while the remainder of the
forecast waters will be sub advisory. Sub advisory conditions remain
on the forecast waters Tuesday night through Thursday. Then with an
increasing W/SW flow late Thursday night into Friday ocean seas may
build to near 5 feet, especially for the waters east of Fire Island
Inlet. And during Friday gusts on the eastern ocean waters may reach
25 kt. The flow weakens Friday evening, and winds and seas on the
ocean waters will return to sub advisory levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-
332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Monday for ANZ335-
338.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET