044
FXUS61 KOKX 241338
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
938 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system moves across the area through this evening.
Another low will track south of the area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the southwest on
Thursday, passing to the south on Friday as a weak disturbance
passes to the north. A frontal system is forecast to impact the
area over the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure near the Great Lakes will continue to push a warm
front towards the area this morning and early afternoon. The
associated cold front will then quickly move across the area
late afternoon through early this evening.
Temperatures across the interior have all risen above freezing
so no additional concern for any freezing rain.
Thermal forcing along a strengthening low level jet and upper
jet streak to our NW will help expand rainfall coverage through
the rest of the morning. The bulk of the rain should impact the
eastern two thirds of the region with some NW interior
locations potentially just getting grazed by the rainfall
shield. Rainfall amounts have been brought down across the NW
interior and may not reach a quarter of an inch. Elsewhere,
generally around three tenths to three quarters of an inch
forecast. Moderate rain is possible at times, especially from
the NYC metro on north and east. No thunderstorms are forecast
as there is minimal MUCAPE available.
Strongest winds will mainly occur this morning and generally
close to the S coast with the approaching warm front. A
strengthening inversion should prevent any of the stronger low
level jet winds from mixing down to the surface. Winds will
likely weaken this afternoon as the low level jet shifts north
and east.
Rain quickly tapers off out east this evening with clearing
skies overnight. Some mid and high clouds may linger.
Adjusted high temps down a bit, but still looking at highs in
the low-mid 50s in NYC and NE NJ with upper 40s to low 50s
elsewhere. These readings most likely will occur late in the day
right ahead of the cold front passage.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep mixing on wly flow will warm temps into the 50s for the entire
area Tue. This is despite h85 at around -2C. Increasing high clouds
ahead of the next sys for Tue ngt and Wed.
As an h5 trof digs into the Northeast, low pres develops somewhere
near the delmarva and tracks newd over the ocean. There is a
clustering of the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF near or SE of the benchmark.
This could allow for some pcpn to develop Tue ngt into Wed, with the
potential for some snow with decreasing thicknesses. The progressive
nature of the sys will be a limiting factor with the sys. Right now
pops are in the chc category. Did go with rain or snow wording
despite lows in the upr 30s at the coasts. The models may be a bit
too warm this far out based on the 00Z consensus track. The NBM is
curious placing the highest snow amounts in the nwrn zones, while at
the same time having nearly zero, and in some cases zero, qpf. This
is a signal that there is a good deal of uncertainty within the
ensemble still.
Any pcpn with the ocean low exits Wed aftn per the current consensus
timing. This is still several periods out so this could change. Went
with the NBM for high temps Wed, although if the GFS verifies, temps
aloft are a bit too cold to produce the NBM numbers, with highs
in the 40s more realistic.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Global models remain in good agreement for the first half of this
period as a longwave trough extending south from eastern Canada into
the Mid Atlantic states on Wednesday lifts out to the north and east
through Friday. This will result in a dry period Wednesday night
through Friday, minus a sprinkle late Thursday into Thursday night
with a weak upper level disturbance. Highs will start off close to
normal on Thursday and then are forecast to get well into the 50s in
a mild SW flow. However, like 24h ago, differences remain with a
frontal boundary that is expected to be in close proximity to the
area over the weekend and with the potential for some light
overrunning precipitation. The latter of which looks to be mostly
rain, but this will depend on the southern extent of polar high
pressure that briefly builds to the north Friday night, sending a
backdoor cold front across the area.
NBM box and whisker plots for Saturday and Sunday show 10 to 20
degree spreads between the 25th and 75th percentiles, most notable
for the high temperatures. This shows the potential for highs across
the area anywhere from the 40s to lower 70s during this time. There
is also quite a variance between the NBM deterministic (cooler) and
its median during this time. The operational global 2m temps are
generally colder during this time. Bottom line, there is a
significant amount of uncertainty with the placement of the polar
front this weekend and the temperature forecast. The 00Z globals did
show better agreement in the positioning. We will see how this
carries over the next several cycles. For the moment, temperatures
during this time reflect the NBM deterministic forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A frontal system will impact the terminals through much of
today, with a cold frontal passage late this afternoon into this
evening. The associated low then tracks slowly northward tonight
into Tuesday.
MVFR conditions through this morning, with a chance of IFR
especially along the coast, then prevailing IFR conditions
expected early afternoon. Initially, there is low-level dry in
place that may cause some variability early on in the forecast
cycle. Wintry precipitation is no longer expected at KSWF as
vertical temperature profiles have warmed sufficiently. Surface
temperatures are well above freezing.
S/SE wind 10-15 kt along coast with gusts near 20-25kt along
the coast with a few gusts up to 30 kt possible. Gusts will
likely lower late morning into the afternoon as a low-level
inversion strengthens as warmer air moves in aloft.
Southerly low level wind shear expected for from 12-20Z, with 40-50
kt SW winds at 2kft just for some coastal terminals, KJFK, KLGA,
KISP, KBDR, and KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of categorical changes may vary by 1-2 hours. Chance of
LIFR cigs late morning into the afternoon.
Brief window where gusts could reach 30 kt in the morning(12Z-14Z).
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR to IFR. Rain may mix with
snow late Tuesday night. W wind gusts near 20 kt during the
day.
Wednesday: Mainly rain with MVFR to IFR in the morning. VFR
returns in the afternoon. Afternoon NW wind gusts 15- 20 kt.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A SCA for all areas this morning, ending from W to E as low
pres tracks near the Sound. Occasional gale gusts possible on
the ocean and LI bays, mainly this morning. Winds decrease below
25 kt all waters tonight, but seas on the ocean stay aoa 5 ft.
Winds marginal on Tue, but seas will likely stay at SCA lvls
for most of the ocean through the day. Winds likely below SCA
levels thru Wed, but seas will be close to thresholds on the
ocean.
Sub advisory conditions remain on the forecast waters Wednesday
night into Thursday, then an increasing W/SW flow could bring seas
on the ocean close to 5 ft, especially east of Fire Island Inlet.
The flow weakens Friday evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW