497
FXUS61 KOKX 242142
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
542 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region this evening. A surface
trough lingers nearby on Tuesday followed by another low
passing well south and east of the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the southwest
on Thursday, passing to the south on Friday as a weak disturbance
passes to the north. A frontal system is forecast to impact the
area over the weekend into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure continues to spin over the Great Lakes this evening. The associated warm front will continue to linger nearby but will likely not be able to make it much farther north than Long Island. The trailing cold front will then sweep across the area tonight. Rain will exit east of Montauk early this evening with an additional quarter inch of rain possible over the Twin Forks and SE CT. The strongest low level winds have pushed away from the area, so winds should remain relatively weak this evening. Deep moisture and thickest cloud cover will also push east this evening. However, there will be some mid and high clouds at times, so will keep at least partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows should be in the 30s inland and stay closer to 40 degrees near the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad upper troughing will persist over the northeast through Wednesday. Model guidance has come into much better agreement with keeping a weak low pressure far enough away from the region for little to no precip Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Surface low pressure will slowly spin across northern New England and southeast Canada on Tuesday. A surface trough will likely persist over the region, especially in the afternoon. High pressure will remain well to our south. A modest pressure gradient over the area along with a well mixed boundary layer will promote a breezy Tuesday with potential of SW gusts 20-25 mph, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. The deep mixing and SW flow along with late march sun under partly cloudy skies should allow temperatures to warm well into the 50s. Some of the usual warm spots could touch 60 degrees in the afternoon. High clouds begin increasing in the evening as the next 500 mb shortwave begins to amplify to our west. The associated vort energy passes to the south and interacts with the lingering surface trough over the eastern seaboard to develop a low pressure Tuesday night. Previous model cycles were differing in the placement of the energy along with the associated developing surface low. The 12z guidance has come into much better agreement with the developing low and any associated lift and precip remaining well south and east of Long Island Tuesday night into Wednesday. NBM PoPs appear to be too high given the latest trends and have gone much lower for this time period. The system is progressive and while there is some amplification aloft, there does not appear to be enough time to have this low develop close enough to the coast to support another period of widespread precip. Have trended PoPs much lower, but still will show precip probabilities around 20 to 30 percent. Thermal profiles would support a wet snow/cold rain mix inland and cold rain closer to the coast if precip were to develop. However, as noted this is becoming a much lower chance and it is quite possible the entire area remains dry. The moves further offshore Wednesday afternoon with the upper trough continuing aloft. Weak cold advection is likely in the afternoon, but clearing skies should lead to temperatures approaching seasonable levels in the upper 40s and lower 50s. W winds could also become a bit gusty in the afternoon with potential of gusts up to 20 or 25 mph as high pressure starts building in from the west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Longwave trough axis will be shifting through the region during Wednesday night and will be east of us by Thursday morning. A cyclonic flow however remains aloft through Thursday night. Moisture will be limited during this period, so expecting dry weather. The only exception would be Thursday night as a weak warm front provides some lift for perhaps a stray sprinkle or flurry. Highs mostly 50-55 on Thursday, then 55-60 for Friday. A weak cold front then passes through from the north with more of a zonal flow aloft, most likely during Friday night. Models differ regarding the location of the stalled front, making the temperature and precip chance forecasts relatively lower in confidence through at least Sunday. It would appear that the cold front stalls not to far to our south through the weekend before moving back north as a warm front Sunday night into Monday with perhaps some help from a low level jet as low pressure shifts into the eastern Great Lakes Region. A cold front would then follow during Monday afternoon or night when a shortwave helps the flow aloft become more amplified. Went with 20-30% chance of rain for Friday night through Sunday as overrunning remains a constant threat. Chances then increase to 50% Sunday night through Monday evening, accounting for both warm and cold front passages as the center of the approaching storm system draws nearer. As for temperatures, NBM box and whisker plots for Saturday through Monday continue to show 10 to 20 degree spreads between the 25th and 75th percentiles, most notably for the high temperatures. As previously mentioned, will go with the scenario that the stalled front remains to our south through Sunday, which aligns with climatology for this time of the year as the parent low center of the upcoming storm is still well off to our west and fairly weak through this time. This puts us on the cooler side of the envelope for both Saturday and Sunday and goes along the lines of the deterministic NBM forecast which is cooler than its ensemble median and closer to the 25th percentile. Then with a better chance of the warm front moving north through the area, warmer temperatures on Monday versus the weekend, but they could be tempered by potential cloud cover and rainfall. Deterministic and median NBM are at least in better agreement for temperatures on Monday. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A frontal system impacts the terminals into early this evening, with a cold frontal passage through this evening. Developing low pressure along the southern New England coast this evening tracks along the coast into the Canadian Maritime late tonight. Another weak low remains to the north through Tuesday. Conditions remain IFR to LIFR with light rain, and periods of moderate to heavy rain. The back edge of the rain shield was moving through western New Jersey at 19Z, and the rain will be gradually ending west to east from about 21Z to 01Z, and may be an hour or so later. Conditions will be slow to improve to MVFR late afternoon into this evening, with conditions then becoming VFR early to late this evening. Improvements may be an hour or so later, and will depend on how quickly the frontal boundary tracks through the region. S wind generally 10 kt or less becomes SW, then W by this evening. West flow then continues through the forecast period with gusts to around 25 kt developing 13Z to 14Z Tuesday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of categorical changes may vary by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday afternoon - night: VFR during the afternoon with gusty W wind around 25 kt. Chance of MVFR to IFR at night, with rain along the coast and a rain/snow mix inland. Wednesday: Rain in the morning with MVFR to IFR. VFR returns in the afternoon. Afternoon W/NW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Thursday: VFR. Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt. Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of light rain. E wind gusts 15- 20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE...
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The SCA remains in effect on the ocean tonight. Winds will continue to diminish early this evening, but seas will remain elevated above 5 ft. The elevated seas are likely to persist through Tuesday, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. Have extended the SCA into the morning west of Fire Island Inlet and into Tuesday evening to Moriches Inlet. East of Moriches the SCA will now run through early Wednesday morning. Conditions will otherwise remain below SCA levels on the waters tonight through Wednesday. Sub advisory conditions are expected on all waters Wednesday night through Saturday with a relatively weak pressure gradient through the period. There are however a few periods up through Friday when gusts could be near 25kt on the ocean waters as the gradient strengthens a little.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DS NEAR TERM...DS/JC SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MET MARINE...JC/DS HYDROLOGY...JC/DS