841
FXUS61 KOKX 251753
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
153 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure tracking across eastern Canada will send a
surface trough or weak cold front across the area later this
afternoon into this evening. Low pressure will then move off the
Mid Atlantic coast tonight, passing well south and east of the
area into Wednesday. A secondary cold front or trough pushes
through the are late Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from
the southwest on Thursday, passing to the south on Friday as a
weak disturbance passes to the north. A frontal system is forecast
to impact the area over the weekend into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor adjustments were made to hourly dewpoints to account
for current observations that had dewpoints higher than
forecast in some areas, while lower in others. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.
A progressive, yet amplifying upper trough will slowly translate
across eastern North America through the middle of the week. At
the surface, a large area of low pressure over eastern Canada
into Northern New England will slowly weaken while tracking
east. The latter of which will drag a weak cold front or surface
trough across the area later this afternoon into early this
evening. The boundary will be dry, but more importantly W/SW
winds will become gusty this morning into this afternoon, with
gusts up to 30 mph. A few higher gusts will be possible. Went
closer to the NBM90 for wind gusts over land.
As for temperatures, it will be a milder day with highs in the
lower to mid 50s. NBM box and whisker plots show a high confidence
temperature forecast with only a few degrees difference between
the 25th and 75th percentiles.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last several days the forecast area has been on the northern
periphery of low pressure that develops just off the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight, passing to the south and east of the area into
Wednesday. Trend has been decreasing chances of precipitation
and used a model consensus which keeps chances offshore. The NBM
still reflecting some older guidance may be taking a bit longer
to catch up maintaining low chances along the coast. Winds will
subside this evening with some cloud cover working into coastal
areas tonight, particularly Long Island being closer to offshore
system. Otherwise, high pressure noses in from the SW on Wednesday
with a cooler day as the area undergoes a period of cold advection
with the approaching upper trough.
Lows tonight will range from around 30 well inland, to 35 to 40
along the coast. Expect it to be a bit colder in the Pine
Barrens region of LI. Highs on Wednesday with plenty of sun
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. These values are close to
normal for late March.
A secondary cold front or trough works across the area late
Wednesday afternoon/early evening with winds veering to the NW
and continued weak cold advection. Temperatures Wednesday night
into Thursday will remain around normal. Also, cant rule out a
brief shower and/or sprinkle with the front. High pressure will
then nose back in from the SW on Thursday with winds backing
more westerly.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak warm front Thursday night provides some lift for perhaps
a stray sprinkle or flurry. Highs 55-60 behind the front for
Friday.
A weak cold front then passes through from the north with more
of a zonal flow aloft, most likely during Friday night. Models
differ regarding the location of the stalled front, making the
temperature and precip chance forecasts relatively lower in
confidence through at least Sunday. It would appear that the
cold front stalls not to far to our south through the weekend
before moving back north as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday with perhaps some help from a low level jet as low
pressure shifts into the eastern Great Lakes Region. A cold
front would then follow during Monday afternoon or night when a
shortwave helps the flow aloft become more amplified.
Went with 20-30% chance of rain for Friday night through Sunday
as overrunning remains a constant threat. Chances then increase
to 50% Sunday night through Monday evening, accounting for both
warm and cold front passages as the center of the approaching
storm system draws nearer.
As for temperatures, NBM box and whisker plots for Saturday
through Monday continue to show 10 to 20 degree spreads between
the 25th and 75th percentiles, most notably for the high
temperatures. As previously mentioned, will go with the scenario
that the stalled front remains to our south through Sunday,
which aligns with climatology for this time of the year as the
parent low center of the upcoming storm is still well off to our
west and fairly weak through this time. This puts us on the
cooler side of the envelope for both Saturday and Sunday and
goes along the lines of the deterministic NBM forecast which is
cooler than its ensemble median and closer to the 25th
percentile. Then with a better chance of the warm front moving
north through the area, warmer temperatures on Monday versus the
weekend, but they could be tempered by potential cloud cover
and rainfall. Deterministic and median NBM are at least in
better agreement for temperatures on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure passes well to our southeast late tonight.
Weak high pressure builds in Wednesday.
VFR is expected through the end of the TAF period.
W to SW flow today with gusts to around 25 kt. Occasional gusts
up to 30 kt are possible. Gusts diminish after 22Z-23Z, with
sustained winds becoming light from the NW tonight. W winds
expected Wednesday morning, starting off at 5 to 10 kt, but
increasing to 10 to 15 kt by late morning into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts around 30 kt are possible this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. Afternoon W/NW wind gusts up to around 20 kt.
Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR. W wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. E to SE wind gusts 15 to 20 kt.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in light rain. E to SE
wind gusts 15 to 20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA remains up for the ocean waters today primarily for high
seas from a SSE swell. There could also be near shore gusts
across all waters around 25 kt, but this should be more
occasional than prevailing. This is due to better heating and
thus mixing over land area today. Seas subside from west to east
late this afternoon into this evening with sub-SCA conditions
across all waters later tonight into Thursday in a westerly
flow.
Sub advisory conditions through Saturday with a relatively weak
pressure gradient through the period. There are however a few
periods up through Friday when gusts could be near 25kt on the
ocean waters as the gradient strengthens a little.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
After the region received rainfall on Monday, conditions will
dry out quickly today with gusty W/SW winds. Minimum RH values
will generally range from 30 to 40 percent this afternoon. Winds
will then drop off tonight and be lighter on Wednesday, but
minimum RH values will be similar. Areas north and west of the
NYC metro will see a more elevated threat for brush fire spread
due to drier fuels. At this time, land managers have not advocated
for a special fire weather products.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW