349
FXUS61 KOKX 262050
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
450 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build in from the west through Thursday, then
pass offshore Thursday night as a weak frontal system passes to
the north. Weak high pressure will then briefly build across on
Friday before a warm front approaches Friday night. The front
will lift north on Saturday, drop back south as a cold front
Saturday night into Sunday, and lift back north on Monday.
A cold front will pass through from the west Monday night.
High pressure will build from the northwest on Tuesday. A
frontal system from the west may begin to impact the area next
Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Amplified upper trough extending from the Great Lakes into the
Mid Atlantic translates east through tonight.

H5 trough axis overhead to start. Associated cold pool aloft has
allowed mixing above 750 mb, and with steep low level lapse
rates, scattered showers have developed and will continue to
move across the region thru late day or so. Wet bulb temps in
the 30s have even brought some wet snow and graupel down to the
ground north and west of NYC. Regardless, QPF is light where it
does precipitate, under a tenth of an inch, and conditions begin
to dry this evening as the axis shifts east.

Deep mixing and a dry sub cloud layer have allowed occasional
gusts to top 20 mph, and expect this to continue into the
night as winds veer NW and skies clear. Temperatures tonight
fall back into the low to mid 30s along the coast, and mid to
upper 20s inland. With these values, it could be one of the
coldest nights for the next week, if not longer.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Trough axis shifts offshore Thursday, with surface high pressure
building into the Mid Atlantic from the west. Rising heights
and surface ridging will help maintain not just dry conditions
thru the day, but abundant sunshine much of this time as well.

Deepening low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and the
building high to the west will tighten the pressure gradient
locally, leading to an increase in wind speeds. While not
particularly strong, west winds will gust 20 to 25 mph thru late
day. Coupled with the dry air mass in place, RH values between
20 and 30 percent in the afternoon, there will be an increased
risk for fire spread. See Fire Weather section below for
additional detail.

As the upper trough continues to translate further out to sea,
shortwave dives south into New England and sends a weak
frontal boundary passes thru Thursday evening and night. Added
mention for a possible shower or sprinkle with this boundary,
but any activity should be light and limited.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Cold front should be past the area around or shortly after
daybreak Fri, with high pressure briefly building in its wake on
a W flow gusting to 20 mph in the morning and early afternoon.
SW-S return flow will quickly develop late Fri afternoon into
Fri night ahead of the approaching warm front, accompanied by
low clouds, perhaps a stray shower inland, also possibly some
patchy fog near the coast as dewpoints increase to near 50 in
spots while SST offshore remains in the mid 40s. Expect the
front to lift well to the north on Sat, with a warm day
throughout per GFS/ECMWF MOS and NBM 75th percentile temps which
have worked out fairly well in other recent mild spells. Temps
should rise well into the 70s especially from NYC north/west, 80
possible in urban NE NJ. Farther east the marine influence
should limit max temps to the lower 70s across ern Long Island
and much of southern CT, and the 60s along south facing
shorelines out east.

Saturday`s warmth will be short-lived as NW flow aloft and mid
level confluence over ern Canada bring high pressure SE into
northern New England and force the front back south Sat night.
NBM temps from the mid 50s east to mid 60s west may be a few
degrees too warm for Sunday with the front to the south and a
cool E-SE flow on the south flank of the high passing to the
north.

As that high passes east, the front should lift closer to the
area Sunday night and lift through Monday AM. A mostly cloudy
day is fcst which should limit max temps to the upper 50s/lower
60s east in onshore flow and mid 60s to lower 70s west, but any
afternoon peeks of sun could easily lead to temps several deg
warmer than that.

Cold front passing through Mon night will be followed by below
normal temps for Tue-Wed next week. An approaching frontal
system on Wed could bring a cold rain, even some wet snow mixing
in across the interior. Forecast confidence on timing and precip
type with this event is low.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A surface trough passes through over the next few hours.

VFR. Scattered -SHRA mainly east of the city this afternoon, but
likely not causing any MVFR conditions outside of KISP for a
brief time. Winds vary mostly WNW-WSW through the afternoon
before becoming more NW this evening. Gusts 20-25 kt during the
afternoon, ending by 00Z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional than frequent this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR during the day, MVFR possible at night. SW winds
G20-25kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in light rain. E-SE wind
G15-20kt.

Monday: MVFR/VFR with showers possible. S-SW winds G20kt,
becoming NW at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Potential for marginal Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions on the
waters with west winds gusting 20-25 kt overnight and Thursday.
Have opted to hold off on any issuance at this point, and
included the mention of occasional 25 kt gusts for now.
Otherwise, sub SCA conditions on coastal waters through Thursday
night.

Marginal SCA cond are possible on the ocean E of Moriches Inlet
Fri AM after a cold frontal passage, with W flow gusting to 25
kt and seas reaching 5 ft.

Persistent S flow 15-20 kt after a warm frontal passage should
help build ocean seas above 5 ft on the ocean from Sat into Sat
night, lasting into Sunday AM E of Moriches Inlet. After a lull
daytime Sunday as the front drops to the south, these conditions
may return from Sunday night into Mon night once the front
returns north. Gusts up to 25 kt are also possible on all waters
Mon night in NW flow after a cold frontal passage.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Westerly wind gusts 20-25 mph, low fuel moisture, and RH 20-30%
Thu afternoon will promote an elevated risk of fire spread
should ignition occur. After collaboration with neighboring
offices and state land managers, hoisted an SPS to highlight
this risk for NY and NJ zones.

Low RH 20-30 percent again possible on Fri, with W winds gusting
15-20 mph, mainly in the AM and early afternoon.

Sat may feature low RH of 30-35% and W-SW winds gusting to
20-25 mph especially from NYC north/west.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR/BG
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR