057
FXUS61 KOKX 271735
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
135 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds of the area today and then moves offshore
tonight. A cold front approaches tonight and moves south towards
the area early Friday before moving back north as a warm front
Friday night into Saturday. The front moves back towards the area
Saturday night. This complex frontal system remains near the area
Sunday and Monday, before finally sliding east Monday night. High
pressure will build from the northwest on Tuesday. A frontal
system from the west may begin to impact the area next Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains mostly on track. High pressure builds south
of the area with center moving towards the North Carolina coast.
Slight negative pressure tendency across local region. A cold
front moves into Great Lakes.
Despite lots of sunshine, a cooler than normal day is expected
with the westerly flow. Westerly flow expected during the day.
Gusts expected, and raised wind gust forecast above initial NBM
values.
Max temperatures generally upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Jet stream upper level situated well north of the area. Overall,
on average, ridging in the mid levels. Not much in the way of
rainfall. Mainly dry with a warming trend for the airmass.
The high pressure area moves east and off the coast of North
Carolina and out into Atlantic tonight. Cold front from Great
Lakes approaches the region and eventually moves south into
early Friday. Weak high pressure moves in briefly for Friday
afternoon.
The front will be moving farther north Friday afternoon through
Saturday as a warm front before potentially pushing back south
Saturday night.
Lows for tonight use a combination of MET/MAV/NBM/NBM 50th
percentile, more weight with NBM and NBM 50 percentile
relatively warmer. Wanted relatively warmer values along coast
because of partial onshore flow.
Mesoscale models depict some shower activity late tonight.
Slight chance to chance POPs. Cold enough for snow showers
tonight for more northern locations, rain/snow shower mix along
coast. More shower activity potentially Friday night into early
Saturday and again for late Saturday into Saturday night. Those
will be with a warmer ambient airmass so just rain showers.
Temperatures forecast on a rising trend, especially Friday into
Saturday with model 850mb temperatures showing an increase of
around 6 to 7 degrees C. Used NBM 50th percentile for Friday and
Saturday high temperatures, which were pretty consistent with
the previous forecast. Upper 50s to lower 60s Friday and lower
70s to lower 80s for Saturday are the range of high temperature
forecast for much of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions continue Sunday through Monday night as a
complex frontal system remains over the region.
The long term period starts off with a frontal boundary south of the
region. NBM temps from the mid 50s across the eastern portion of the
region east to lower 60s to the west may be a few degrees too warm
with a cool E-SE flow across the region.
The front is forecast to lift closer to the area Sunday night and
lift north of the area Monday morning. A mostly cloudy day is
forecast which should limit highs to the upper 50s and lower 60s to
the east and mid 60s to lower 70s to the west. However any afternoon
peeks of sun could easily lead to temps several deg warmer than
that.
Cold front approaches on Monday and moves across the area Monday
night will be followed by below normal temps for Tue-Wed next week.
Expect drier conditions on Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Another
approaching frontal system late Wednesday could bring a cold rain,
even some wet snow mixing in across the interior.
Overall forecast confidence is below average through the entire long
term period with multiple questions around frontal boundary
positioning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slides south of the area today. A weak cold front
moves through the area tonight.
VFR. NW winds with gusts 20-24 kt continue through 22-00z. Wind
then shifts more SW and lessen into the evening. Around midnight
winds likely increase a few knots ahead of the front. SW/W winds
remain through Friday morning.
Isolated light rain showers are possible tonight. Low confidence
in coverage and occurrence so have left out of the TAF.
Conditions are expected to remain VFR regardless.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts to 20-24kt may be more occasional today.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR through the daytime hours. MVFR possible at night
with rain showers.
Saturday: VFR through the morning, MVFR possible starting in the evening
with rain showers. SW winds G25-30kt.
Sunday: MVFR possible in rain showers. E-SE wind G15-20kt.
Monday: MVFR or lower with showers. Moderate to locally heavy
showers possible. S-SW winds G25kt, becoming NW at night.
Tuesday: VFR. N/NW wind G25kt early.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Ocean seas already right near 5 ft for southeast of Montauk.
Expecting rest of ocean to get more in SCA range due to wind
gusts this afternoon and tonight. This will linger into Friday
morning.
Non-ocean waters will have some nearshore gusts around
25kt today, but more widespread overnight tonight into Friday
morning. SCAs have been issued for all but NY Harbor and Western
LI Sound during this period.
After a brief lull in waves and wind gusts Friday afternoon and
Friday night, expecting a trend up for these parameters for the
weekend.
Small craft conditions appear to be likely this weekend and
into early next week as a frontal system moves across the area
waters. Low pressure offshore may keep seas elevated for the
first half of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry conditions expected to continue over the next few
days. Gusty westerly flow this afternoon and early Friday is
forecast. Gusty southwesterly flow expected for Saturday.
Some elevated fire spread potential for today with combination
of low RH and gusty winds. This will be somewhat mitigated for
Friday and Saturday with possible shower activity the prior
night into early morning.
Special weather statements for elevated risk of fire spread have
been issued, which considers meteorological, fuel, and land
conditions and has been developed in coordination with state
fire and land management officials.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a half inch of rain total with showers forecast
through Saturday night.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ331-
332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BC/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM