254
FXUS61 KOKX 282218
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
618 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches this evening, and pushes north of most
of the waters Saturday. This front will drop back down south of
the waters Saturday afternoon into night, and then lift back
north Sunday Night. A cold frontal passage is likely late
Monday, followed by high pressure through the middle of the
week. A frontal system will approach Wednesday night into
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst is on track. Nearly zonal upper flow across US/Canada
border, with stationary front extending into the NE US tonight,
lead by a warm frontal approach tonight and passage Sat AM for
all but SE CT.
Lead vort energy approaching and crossing the region tonight,
combined with strong waa associated with warm frontal passage will
continue increasing cloud cover this aft/eve with a period of
showers later this evening into first half of tonight
traversing w to e across the area. A rumble of thunder not out
of the question with some weak elevated instability, but very
slight chance. Drying and warming conditions late tonight for
all but SE CT in strengthening SW flow.
Early low temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s in pre-frontal
showers, increasing to upper 40s far eastern areas to mid 50s
for western areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Unseasonably warm temperatures (20-25 degrees above normal) for
the NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Sat AM into early aft.
* Elevated threat for brush fire spread for NE NJ into the NYC
metro for Saturday due to dry conditions, warm temps, low rhs
and gusty winds.
* Strong cold frontal passage likely Sat aft into eve, with
temps likely dropping 20 degrees in the matter of an hour or
two. Anyone venturing out on the waters tomorrow should be
mindful of the cold water dangers.
* A return to seasonably chilly conditions Saturday Night into
Sunday.
Confluent upper flow across the region through Sunday, giving
way to SW US shortwave lifting into the Mid Mississippi River
Valley/Great Lakes Sun Night in response to deepening central
plains polar shortwave.
At the surface, a stationary front will generally lie across
Central NY/New England separating a polar airmass across Canada
and unseasonably warm airmass to the south of the front. Good
agreement in the warm front moving north of all but SE CT by Sat
AM, with deep WSW flow and deep mixing in its wake. High
confidence in temps making a run into the lower 80s for NE NJ
and NYC and upper 70s for surrounding metro areas of LoHud, NW
LI and SW CT, despite a mix of high and mid clouds streaming
through the area. Across far northern portions of the local Tri-
State area, closer to the front, will likely be dealing with a
bit more cloud cover and perhaps some isolated shower/tstm
activity, while across south coastal areas will have a bit of
influence off the 50 degree waters, which would limit temps in
the lower to mid 70s. Meanwhile, temps across far SE CT
(particularly New London) could struggle to 60 F if warm front
never passes to the north.
The unseasonable warmth of 20 to 25 degrees above seasonable
will be short lived, as strong agreement in the stationary front
working back SW as strong back-door cold front from NE to SW
late Sat aft/eve with temps likely dropping 20 degrees in an
hour or two on a gusty easterly flow in its wake. This passage
may also be accompanied by scattered shower activity/isolated
tsra with a bit of elevated instability, but higher confidence
in stratus development in the wake of passage for Sat night.
Canadian maritime airmass will likely become entrenched across the
region Sat Night as back door cold front pushes SW of the region,
with moist onshore flow under a strong low-level inversion,
remaining through Sunday. Temps on Sunday with stratus and CAD
likely struggling into the 50s along the coast to upper 50s well
west of the Hudson R. This is near seasonable, but a good 20-30
degrees below Sat temps.
Good agreement in NE shearing southern shortwave embedded in an
amplifying SW flow approaches Sun Night, which with a
developing SW 40-45kt llj should have the back-door front
working back north across the region as a warm front Sun Night
into Mon AM. Potential once again for scattered showers, a
rumble of thunder, and warming temps in WAA flow.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Consistent modeling from the 12Z NAM, GFS and ECMWF puts a cold
front on the doorstep Mon, with the fropa Mon ngt. A sly flow with
perhaps a slight wwd component will develop ahead of the front, as
the thermal ridge builds in. Warmest areas along and w of the
Hudson, with progressively cooler temps as you travel ewd due to a
solid flow from the Atlc. Stratus likely in this ern segment, with
fog also possible, especially in the mrng. It is too far out to get
a solid feel for any svr/tstm potential with the sys. There should
be some scbape as advertised by the NAM, but the forcing may be too
slow to tap into that Mon aftn/eve. There will be good shear, both
directional and speed to work with, but if everything is elevated,
overall impacts should be relatively minimal. Nevertheless, did
include slight chances for tstms with the timing of the best forcing
late Mon and Mon ngt.
Dry, nly flow on Tue. There is some disagreement with the exact wind
details, as the model consensus has nw flow whereas the
deterministic GFS has n-ne llvl flow. Went with the consensus for
now which is more inline with climo and high pres building in from
the W.
High pres builds in Tue ngt, so temps should drop into the 20s for
most of the area if this pattern/timing holds.
The high builds offshore Wed, so still dry but return flow sets up
by the end of the day. The next frontal sys then produces some
additional chances for shwrs Wed ngt and Thu with a warm front/cold
front combo.
There is the suggestion that ridging invof FL and an upr low
traversing ON/QC could flatten out the flow locally, allowing for
the front to become parallel to the flow and stall over the region
for Fri. Clouds and additional chances for shwrs are in the fcst as
a result, although confidence in this soln is not high attm.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak front stalls nearby into this evening. The front then moves
back north as a warm front late tonight into Saturday morning,
before settling south towards the area once again late Saturday
afternoon and evening.
VFR. SW to S winds mainly around 7-10 kt through the early evening.
The winds lighten some later tonight, S 5-10 kt for the NYC
metro/coastal and light/variable at some of the outlying terminals
as the weak front draws near.
The chance for MVFR cigs late this evening have decreased at the NYC
metros with any showers associated with the warm front moving
across. Mainly VFR as winds lighten tonight at mainly 5-10 kt with
-SHRA mainly across northern and northeast terminals. TEMPO group
for city terminals for showers this evening. VFR into Saturday
morning with W to WSW wind with gusts by 13 to 15z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance of brief MVFR ceilings this evening with -SHRA,
otherwise no unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday afternoon: VFR to start, with showers with MVFR cond
possible in the afternoon, especially at KBDR/KGON/KISP. W to SW
winds G25-30kt / becoming ENE for eastern and northeastern
terminals.
Saturday night and Sunday: MVFR cigs east of the NYC metros, with
localized IFR possible there late night into the early morning. E-SE
winds G15-20kt daytime Sunday.
Sunday night: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible.
Monday: MVFR or lower with showers and slight chance of thunder. S-
SW winds G20-25kt, becoming NW at night.
Tuesday: VFR. N-NW wind G20-25kt daytime.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. E-SE winds. Sub VFR possible at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through tonight on all waters as high pressure
moves through and then a warm front.
SW SCA gusts likely for western nearshore waters late Sat AM into
afternoon. Gusts will likely remain below SCA for the open ocean and
LIS waters with a stronger inversion, but SCA seas likely on the
ocean in 15-20kt SW flow late tonight into Sunday.
A strong backdoor cold front moves from e to w late Sat aft/eve
which would bring a quick wind shift and potential for a brief
burst of SCA easterly winds in its wake, subsiding below SCA
later Sat Night into Sunday. The elevated ocean seas with SCA
levels will probably continue through the rest of the weekend,
especially for eastern ocean zones.
Fog, gales, and a few tstms all possible Mon and Mon ngt as a strong
cold front approaches then passes thru the waters. Improvement to
sca on Tue. Winds blw sca lvls on Wed, although seas on the ocean
may linger close to 5 ft. Winds and seas then ramp up quickly
again Wed ngt and Thu due to another frontal sys.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
80s across NE NJ and NYC metro, southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph
with frequent gusts of 25 to 35 mph, relative humidity values
of 30 to 35 percent, and lack of wetting rains over that last 4
days will create an elevated risk for brush fire spread across
the region Saturday morning into afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Around a tenth of an inch of rain or less with rain showers
tonight into early Saturday.
Less than a tenths of an inch of rain with shower on Sunday,
mainly northern areas.
One tenths to a quarter of an inch possible Sunday Night.
Some localized minor flooding, mainly urban and poor drainage, is
possible Mon and Mon ngt with a frontal sys. No additional
hydrologic impacts are expected Tue-Fri.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A new moon on Saturday will have astronomical tides rising
through Sunday night, with as little as 1/2 ft of surge needed
for minor coastal flooding by Sunday Night high tide. Potential
that water levels could exceed minor flood levels for the most
vulnerable south shore of NYC/W LI and western LI sound
communities in an E/SE flow regime.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ331-332-340.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ335-338-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV