854
FXUS61 KOKX 291151
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift to the north this morning. Then a cold
front will sweep westward across the area from late this
afternoon into early this evening. This front will stall to
the south on Sunday and lift through as a warm front Sunday
night into early Monday. A cold front will then pass through
Monday night. High pressure will build from the west on Tuesday
and move out into the Atlantic on Wednesday. Low pressure will
move through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, with
an associated warm front moving across on Thursday, followed by
a cold front Thursday night. This frontal boundary may linger
nearby on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most of the showers with the passing warm front have lifted out
of the area. Unseasonable warmth expected for most of the area
today expect perhaps the forks of Long Island and far SE CT.
Followed lead of earlier HRRR guidance, with deep mixing to
700-750 mb and W-WSW flow sustained up to 20 mph and gusting up
to 30 mph promoting temps rising to the lower 80s from NE NJ
and NYC and western Long Island, and rising well into the 70s
across the rest of the CWA except perhaps SE CT and parts of
the forks of Long Island, before a strong back door cold front
sweeps across from the east late this afternoon into early this
evening. Latest HRRR guidance is slower with this frontal
passage and so is even warmer, with 80 degree readings up into
the Hudson Valley and 70s across nearly the entire rest of the
area except for coastal SE CT and the far ern forks of Long
Island.
Temps should drop suddenly after fropa on a gusty E flow late
today into this evening. Temps will fall to the 40s across SE
CT and ern Long Island and the 50s across SW CT and western Long
Island by sunset, and into the 50s across the NYC metro area
during the evening hours. Low temps will range from the upper
30s across ern sections to the mid 40s across NYC and NE NJ.
Per CAM`s the front may spark a few showers and possibly a tstm
mainly E of NYC via elevated instability after the front moves
through, then some additional elevated shower/tstm activity
should drift in from the west tonight. Low clouds also expected
due to the sharpness of the frontal inversion, also some patchy
fog in spots E-NE of NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With the front to the south on Sunday it will remain cloudy and
rather cool, with high temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
most of the area, with mid 50s for NYC and NE NJ.
The front should return north Sunday night, aided by a
developing LLJ. After evening lows in the 40s, temps should hold
steady or slowly rise overnight as the front works its way into
the area. In advance of the front there is potential for sct
showers, also areas of fog especially closer to the coast.
Area will be in the warm sector once again on Mon, with an
approaching cold front Mon night. With a S flow and more cloud
cover temps unlikely to be as warm as on Sat, mostly in the 60s
with some lower 70s in NE NJ. There will be some instability
present especially Mon evening ahead of the front sparking
heavier showers and a few tstms, and the SPC Day 3 Outlook
mentions at least a marginal svr risk from NYC north/west, and a
slight svr risk for Orange County.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Periodic slight undulations in otherwise a mainly zonal flow for
the mid levels. These undulations move across the local area
Tuesday and Thursday into Friday.
At the surface, a cold front moves farther out into the Atlantic
Tuesday. A warm front approaches Wednesday night and moves
across Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night.
Rain showers taper off Tuesday morning. The next chance for
precipitation arrives Wednesday night and remains for the rest of
the forecast period. This will be mainly in the form of rain. Only
possible exception would be at the onset Wednesday night for some
interior locations that would be cold enough to allow for a
rain/snow mix. Temperatures however look to stay warm enough to
allow for little to no snow accumulation.
The longer duration of rainfall Wednesday night through Friday
does not necessarily mean rainfall for the entire time. It
could very well be periodic or intermittent. Frontal system will
have associated warm front approach Wednesday night into
Thursday followed by an associated cold front. The cold front
then slows down as the parent low weakens as it moves into the
Canadian Maritimes. The front may linger nearby the area as a
result, maintaining chance of rain Thursday into Friday.
Regarding temperatures, they start out close to normal for highs
Tuesday and Wednesday and then average above normal for Thursday
and Friday. For the lows, they do not deviate much from normal
Tuesday night and then lows average above normal for Wednesday
night and Thursday night. Only time period with below freezing
temperatures across the interior is late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary will be the focus of the TAF period. The
boundary starts out north of the terminals, and makes its way
farther southwest this afternoon into tonight.
VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Then, with that front
moving southwest marking a switch from WSW-SW winds to more E
winds this afternoon into this evening. Winds gust 20-25 kt this
afternoon with continued gusts near 20 kt into early tonight.
Some rain showers are possible this afternoon into tonight with
increasing chances for MVFR late this afternoon into tonight.
Mainly MVFR is expected tonight into Sunday with increasing
potential for IFR at times. Some IFR can be expected early
Sunday. Northern terminals have relatively higher chances of
showers. Slight possibility for thunderstorms tonight for some
terminals. Lowering categories will be mainly for ceilings but
patchy fog is forecast as well early Sunday so IFR visibilities
are also possible.
In addition, LLWS expected this morning with WSW-W winds of
45-55 kt at 2kft. LLWS lasts into early afternoon for KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments becoming more likely towards end of TAF period to
refine timing of switch of westerly winds to easterly winds as
well as for the timing of the MVFR and IFR. The changes in
winds and category could be a few hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: MVFR to IFR early. Mainly MVFR in the afternoon. Patchy
fog early. A few rain showers possible.
Sunday night: MVFR to IFR. Areas of fog developing at night.
Increasing chances for showers, becoming likely for some
terminals. S wind gusts 15-20 kt developing late.
Monday: MVFR to IFR with chance of showers, becoming more
likely afternoon and at night with chance of thunderstorms
afternoon into night. Areas of fog early, becoming more patchy
late morning into afternoon before redeveloping at night. S-SW
wind gusts 20-25kt, becoming NW late at night.
Tuesday: VFR. N-NW wind gusts around 20 kt daytime, just for
some coastal terminals at night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR but chances for MVFR at night with
increasing chance of showers. E-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA cond develop on all waters today, first via strong SW-W
flow gusting to over 25 kt and ocean seas building to 5+ ft.
A back door cold front pushing westward late today into this
evening will be accompanied by a wind shift and E flow gusting
to 30 kt. Elevated ocean seas should last overnight into
Sunday morning.
Another round of at least SCA cond expected Mon into Mon night
in S flow ahead of an approaching cold front.
SCA level wind gusts forecast for all waters Tuesday. Below SCA
level for wind gusts forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening for all waters. SCA level gusts return late Wednesday
night, mainly across the ocean.
For seas, non-ocean zones remain below SCA thresholds Tuesday
through Wednesday night. For ocean, SCA seas linger Tuesday
into Tuesday night and then will linger east of Fire Island
Inlet Wednesday before trending below SCA thresholds for all
ocean zones Wednesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
across most of Long Island, NYC metro, NE NJ, and the lower
Hudson Valley, with WSW winds 15-20 mph and gusting to 25-30
mph, min RH 30-35 percent, and lack of wetting rains over the
last 4 days, will create an elevated risk for brush fire spread
across the region today. SPS currently mentions only NE NJ and
Staten Island but may be expanded to cover a greater portion of
the area after collaboration with land managers this morning.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall with a cold fropa on Mon should average at least an
inch, with locally higher amts possible. Some localized minor
flooding, mainly urban and poor drainage, is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With tides running astronomically high with the new moon, less
surge will be needed for minor coastal flooding. A few sites
with more easterly flow expected tonight before their respective
high tides are forecast to reach minor coastal flood
benchmarks. These locations are mainly along Southern Fairfield
CT and with exceedance of minor benchmarks only expected to be
0.2 ft or less, coastal flood statements have been issued for
the times of high tide tonight from 10PM to 1AM EDT.
More sites are forecast to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks
for Sunday night, expanding beyond the shorelines of Fairfield
CT to also include some other adjacent shoreline areas along
Western LI Sound as well as the Long Island South Shore Bays and
the Lower NY Harbor.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Potential for daily record high temperatures at Bridgeport CT (BDR),
Kennedy NY (JFK), and Islip NY (ISP) for today, Saturday, March 29th.
BDR: Forecast high temperature: 79
Record high temperature: 80(1998)
JFK: Forecast high temperature: 81
Record high temperature: 82(1998)
ISP: Forecast high temperature: 79
Record high temperature: 81(1998)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT
tonight for ANZ331-332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT
Sunday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...