093
FXUS61 KOKX 291734
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
134 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will sweep westward across the area from
late this afternoon into early this evening. This front will
stall to the south on Sunday and lift through as a warm front
Sunday night into early Monday. A cold front will then pass
through Monday night. High pressure will build from the west on
Tuesday and move out into the Atlantic on Wednesday. Low
pressure will move through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into
Thursday, with an associated warm front moving across on
Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night. This frontal
boundary may linger nearby on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quite a challenging temperature forecast today as much of the
area starts off in the warm sector before a backdoor cold front
works west across the area this afternoon into early this
evening. Latest surface analysis places the front from KMMK in
northeast New Haven County in CT, southeast to East Hampton
along the south fork of eastern LI. The front will reach NYC and
the Lower Hudson Valley by early this evening. Temperature
falls behind the front in what is a shallow cold airmass, may be
as much 20 degrees in an hour, especially across LI and CT
where this occurs during the afternoon hours.
With deep mixing to 700-750 mb and W-WSW flow, expect wind gusts
up to 30 mph allowing temps to rise to the lower 80s from NE NJ
and NYC and western Long Island, and rising well into the 70s
across the rest of the CWA except perhaps SE CT and parts of the
forks of Long Island, before a strong back door cold front
sweeps across from the east late this afternoon into early this
evening.
Temps should drop suddenly after fropa on a gusty E flow late
today into this evening. Temps will fall to the 40s across SE CT
and ern Long Island and the 50s across SW CT and western Long
Island by sunset, and into the 50s across the NYC metro area
during the evening hours. Low temps will range from the upper
30s across ern sections to the mid 40s across NYC and NE NJ.
Per CAM`s the front may spark a few showers and possibly a tstm
especially E of NYC this afternoon via elevated instability
after the front moves through, then some additional elevated
shower/tstm activity should drift in from the west tonight. Low
clouds also expected due to the sharpness of the frontal
inversion, also some patchy fog in spots E-NE of NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
With the front to the south on Sunday it will remain cloudy and
rather cool, with high temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s for
most of the area, with mid 50s for NYC and NE NJ.
The front should return north Sunday night, aided by a
developing LLJ. After evening lows in the 40s, temps should hold
steady or slowly rise overnight as the front works its way into
the area. In advance of the front there is potential for sct
showers, also areas of fog especially closer to the coast.
Area will be in the warm sector once again on Mon, with an
approaching cold front Mon night. With a S flow and more cloud
cover temps unlikely to be as warm as on Sat, mostly in the 60s
with some lower 70s in NE NJ. There will be some instability
present especially Mon evening ahead of the front sparking
heavier showers and a few tstms, and the SPC Day 3 Outlook
mentions at least a marginal svr risk from NYC north/west, and a
slight svr risk for Orange County.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Periodic slight undulations in otherwise a mainly zonal flow for
the mid levels. These undulations move across the local area
Tuesday and Thursday into Friday.
At the surface, a cold front moves farther out into the Atlantic
Tuesday. A warm front approaches Wednesday night and moves
across Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday night.
Rain showers taper off Tuesday morning. The next chance for
precipitation arrives Wednesday night and remains for the rest of
the forecast period. This will be mainly in the form of rain. Only
possible exception would be at the onset Wednesday night for some
interior locations that would be cold enough to allow for a
rain/snow mix. Temperatures however look to stay warm enough to
allow for little to no snow accumulation.
The longer duration of rainfall Wednesday night through Friday
does not necessarily mean rainfall for the entire time. It
could very well be periodic or intermittent. Frontal system will
have associated warm front approach Wednesday night into
Thursday followed by an associated cold front. The cold front
then slows down as the parent low weakens as it moves into the
Canadian Maritimes. The front may linger nearby the area as a
result, maintaining chance of rain Thursday into Friday.
Regarding temperatures, they start out close to normal for highs
Tuesday and Wednesday and then average above normal for Thursday
and Friday. For the lows, they do not deviate much from normal
Tuesday night and then lows average above normal for Wednesday
night and Thursday night. Only time period with below freezing
temperatures across the interior is late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal boundary will be the focus of the TAF period. The boundary
starts out north of the terminals and makes its way farther
southwest this afternoon into this evening.
VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Then as the front moves
southwest, a switch from WSW-SW winds to more E winds takes place
this afternoon into this evening. Winds gust 20-30 kt this afternoon
with continued gusts near 20 kt into a portion of this evening.
A few rain showers are possible this afternoon into tonight with
increasing chances for MVFR late this afternoon towards KGON and
eastern terminals, then towards and into this evening further west.
MVFR prevails this evening, with IFR towards and just after
midnight. IFR is expected to continue into Sunday morning with a
period of LIFR which is currently handled with TEMPO groups.
Northern terminals have relatively higher chances of showers. Slight
possibility for thunderstorms tonight for some terminals. Patchy fog
and drizzle remains a possibility late tonight and early Sunday
morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments becoming more likely around the timing of the wind shift
from westerly winds to easterly winds, and for flight category
changes MVFR and IFR tonight. The timing in wind and category
changes could be a few hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: MVFR and IFR. E winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sunday night: MVFR to IFR. Areas of fog developing at night.
Increasing chances for showers, becoming likely for some terminals.
S wind gusts 15-20 kt developing late.
Monday: MVFR to IFR with chance of showers, becoming more likely
afternoon and at night with chance of thunderstorms afternoon into
night. Areas of fog early, becoming more patchy late morning into
afternoon before redeveloping at night. S-SW wind gusts 20-25kt,
becoming NW late at night.
Tuesday: VFR. N-NW wind gusts around 20 kt daytime, just for some
coastal terminals at night.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR but chances for MVFR at night with increasing
chance of showers. E-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday: VFR, with pockets of MVFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA cond develop on all waters today, first via strong SW-W
flow gusting to over 25 kt and ocean seas building to 5+ ft.
A back door cold front pushing westward late today into this
evening will be accompanied by a wind shift and E flow gusting
to 30 kt. Elevated ocean seas should last overnight into
Sunday morning.
Another round of at least SCA cond expected Mon into Mon night
in S flow ahead of an approaching cold front.
SCA level wind gusts forecast for all waters Tuesday. Below SCA
level for wind gusts forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday
evening for all waters. SCA level gusts return late Wednesday
night, mainly across the ocean.
For seas, non-ocean zones remain below SCA thresholds Tuesday
through Wednesday night. For ocean, SCA seas linger Tuesday
into Tuesday night and then will linger east of Fire Island
Inlet Wednesday before trending below SCA thresholds for all
ocean zones Wednesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A special weather statement is out for NE NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley, NYC, and Long Island this afternoon for an elevated
threat of wildfire spread today.
The combination of temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
across most of Long Island, NYC metro, NE NJ, and the lower
Hudson Valley, with WSW winds 15-20 mph and gusting to 25-30
mph, min RH 30-35 percent, and lack of wetting rains over the
last 4 days, will create an elevated risk for brush fire spread
across the region today.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall with a cold fropa on Mon should average at least an
inch, with locally higher amts possible. Some localized minor
flooding, mainly urban and poor drainage, is possible.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With tides running astronomically high with the new moon, less
surge will be needed for minor coastal flooding. An easterly
flow behind a back door cold front this afternoon into early
this evening will allow for enough of a surge across western LI
Sound to push water levels to right around coastal flood
benchmarks around the time of high tide. These locations are
mainly along Southern Fairfield CT and with exceedance of minor
benchmarks only expected to be 0.2 ft or less, coastal flood
statements are in effect for the times of high tide tonight
from 10PM to 1AM EDT.
More sites are forecast to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks
for Sunday night, expanding beyond the shorelines of Fairfield
CT to also include some other adjacent shoreline areas along
Western LI Sound as well as the Long Island South Shore Bays and
the Lower NY Harbor.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Potential for daily record high temperatures at Bridgeport CT (BDR),
Kennedy NY (JFK), and Islip NY (ISP) for today, Saturday, March 29th.
BDR: Forecast high temperature: 79
Record high temperature: 80(1998)
JFK: Forecast high temperature: 81
Record high temperature: 82(1998)
ISP: Forecast high temperature: 79
Record high temperature: 81(1998)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-332-
340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...