032
FXUS61 KOKX 312021
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure tracks through southeastern Canada tonight dragging
a cold front across the region. High pressure builds in from
the north Tuesday and Tuesday night. The high over southern
Quebec builds southeastward Wednesday, pushing off the New
England coast Wednesday. Thereafter, an unsettled pattern sets
up with a frontal boundary near or over the area through the end
of the week into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The area was beginning to destabilize that in the afternoon
with surface based CAPE to around 500 J/kg across northeastern
New Jersey into the lower Hudson Valley. And isolated showers
and thunderstorms were beginning to develop. Further
destabilization is expected into early this evening with surface
based CAPE up to 1000 J/kg and expanding slightly further to
the east. Also shear has increased. The threat of strong to
locally severe thunderstorms remains across northeastern New
Jersey, New York City, the lower Hudson Valley and into
portions of southwestern Connecticut and western Long Island.
The primary threat remains damaging wind gusts, with large hail
also possible, and an isolated tornado cannot be totally ruled
out. With the cold front moving into the region by late evening,
the severe thunderstorm threat diminishes and the focus of any
thunderstorms will be generally east of New York City and across
much of southern Connecticut. And with a marine influence and a
low level cap in place, thunderstorms will become more
isolated. The CAMs have handled the development and track of the
thunderstorms rather well for this evening, and leaned toward
them for timing and probabilities.
Once the cold front passes through winds shift to a gusty
northwest flow, and precipitation moves east of the area by
Tuesday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Tuesday and Tuesday night will be dry with temperatures bear
normal Tuesday, and slightly below normal Tuesday night as skies
will be mainly clear and winds will be diminishing. Temperatures
will be below freezing outside of the New York City metro area,
and in the mid to upper 30s in the metropolitan area. The
growing season begins April 1 for the metro area, and with the
forecast low Tuesday night, frost headlines will be possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An unsettled pattern sets up for much of the long term as
frontal boundary lies over or nearby the forecast area, with
waves of low pressure riding along the boundary at times,
bringing higher chances for precipitation.
Wednesday looks to remain dry during the day as high pressure
slides off the New England coast. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system over the northern Great Plains lifts northeast into the
Great Lakes region, sending a warm front north of the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The associated cold front
moves through late Thursday night into Friday morning with high
pressure nosing in from the north for Friday afternoon into
Friday night, pushing the cold front farther south. However, the
front lifts north once again Saturday into Saturday night and
remains nearby through the end of the weekend.
In terms of chances for precipitation, there will be some
uncertainty in the placement and timing of the frontal features
and any waves of low pressure that move through/nearby the
forecast area. However, a weak low that forms along the frontal
boundary to our southwest will give the western half of the
forecast area a decent chance for rain late Thursday night. The
low weakens as it heads east, giving eastern areas less of a
chance for precipitation. Friday afternoon into the first half
of Friday night looks to be dry as outer fringes of high
pressure from the north nose into the area during this time
frame. Then better chances for precipitation for the entire area
late Saturday into Saturday night as another low possibly forms
along the frontal boundary. Chances for precipitation decrease
for Sunday as the warm front lifts north and the cold front
approaches from the west. However, the area doesn`t totally dry
out until sometime Monday afternoon.
Depending on what side of the frontal boundary the area lies on
will dictate whether we will be above/below/near normal through
the period. The warm front lifting north on Thursday will mean
warm temperatures, with highs in the 70s away from the coast.
Upper 50s to 60s are expected along the coast. Cooler, but still
above normal temperatures for Friday. Close to normal expected
on Saturday with high pressure building in from the north. Then
above normal for Sunday as another warm front lifts north.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will move through the terminals this evening. High
pressure will build in on Tuesday.
NYC terminals and KHPN have went VFR and plenty of clearing can
be seen on satellite. KSWF is also expected to become VFR this
afternoon, but other terminals will likely stay MVFR or lower
with clearing not likely to make it that far east. Conditions
will lower again for all terminals as showers move through the
area late this afternoon through the evening. Showers could be
heavy at times, with also a chance of thunderstorms for NYC
terminals, KHPN and KSWF. Time of thunderstorms for NYC
terminals is about 22z-04z. During the first half of tonight
conditions could lower to IFR or lower.
Gradual improvement expected after midnight from west to east.
VFR for Tuesday.
Winds will be southerly today around 10-15kt. Gusts up to 25kt
expected at terminals away from the coast and will likely be
more occasional at KJFK, KBDR and KGON. Winds become
northwesterly behind the cold front tonight and on Tuesday will
be 15-18G25-27KT.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts will be more occasional at KJFK.
Amendments likely to refine timing of categorical changes as
well as timing of thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms in the 22Z-04Z time window could have strong
gusty winds and hail.
Amendments likely to refine timing of SW to NW wind direction
changes such as with the cold front.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20-25 kt.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR during most of the day. MVFR or lower
possible late afternoon and at night with a chance of showers.
SE wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers,
eventually becoming likely at night. SW wind gusts 15-20kt,
highest along the coast day into evening.
Friday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers.
Mainly VFR afternoon and at night.
Saturday: MVFR or lower likely in rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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A small craft advisory remains in effect for all the forecast
waters into Tuesday morning as strong gusty winds continue ahead
of a cold front, and then for gusty northwest winds late tonight
through Tuesday morning behind the front. Winds and gusts
diminish below advisory levels on the waters by Tuesday
afternoon, however, ocean seas will remain elevated into
Tuesday night, and the advisory was extended.
Winds remain below 25 kt over all waters Wednesday and much of
Wednesday night. The approach of a cold front Thursday will
bring winds back up to 25 to 30 kt over most if not all waters
as a low level jet strengthens over the area. Winds diminish
below 25 kt by late Thursday night and remain below 25 kt
through the rest of the long term.
5 ft waves on the ocean waters for Wednesday morning fall below 5 ft
by late morning into the afternoon. They quickly build to 5 ft again
early Wednesday night as southerly flow increases. Waves peak to 5
to 9 ft on the ocean waters by Thursday afternoon, then diminish
through Friday morning to less than 5 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected into tonight,
with widespread rainfall around an inch, and an area of up to 1
1/2 inches across northeastern New Jersey, across New York City,
and into portions of the lower Hudson Valley into southwestern
Connecticut. Locally higher amounts are possible. The primary
concern if flooding occurs is localized minor
nuisance/urban/poor drainage flooding.
After tonight no hydrologic impacts are expected through the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels have been lower than fcst, and with astronomical
tide levels trending slightly lower for tonight, this will
limit any minor coastal flooding to isolated spots along some
shoreline locations of the South Shore Bays of Long Island and
the western Long Island Sound shoreline along Southern Fairfield
CT. A coastal flood statement has been issued for these areas
for tonight.
Timing of wind shift compared to time of high tide does not give
much factor to offshore flow. Time before high tides will be
mostly onshore. Both South Shore Bays and Western Long Island
Sound will have high tide pass before more continuous gusty NW
offshore flow gets established.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...