370
FXUS61 KOKX 021907
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
307 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build offshore this afternoon, allowing for a
warm frontal passage Thursday morning. An associated cold front
will drop into the area by Friday. Unsettled conditions are
likely this weekend with the frontal boundary remaining nearby.
The front will move away on Monday, with high pressure slowly
returning into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track. High pres centered over eastern Canada swd
into the region today, with the sfc ridge axis drifting E of the
CWA by the end of the day. This will result in lgt E-NE winds
to veer to the SE by afternoon. Dry mid lvls so no pcpn is
expected, but mid and high clouds should thicken this aftn per
model progs and the current sat vis imagery over central PA.
Cool with highs in the 40s fcst.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Onshore flow builds llvl moisture tngt. As the BL cools,
stratus, fog and drizzle expected to develop late tngt into
Thu. The fog will be difficult to displace on Thu with continued
onshore flow and a thick high cloud deck produced by the
subtropical tap. Nonetheless, still expect wrn areas to at least
break out with the flow coming around to about 210. This should
allow these areas to warm into the lwr 70s. If the area does
not break out temps will be a bust.
The cdfnt associated with the massive sys approaches late Thu,
and gradually sinks thru on Fri. All of the jet energy escapes
into Canada, so there will not be much upr lvl support. This is
likely why the models are not initiating much over the area thru
the period. Will not include tstms in the fcst at this point,
given the lack of forcing and weak instability. Best chances for
tstm development Thu aftn/eve across wrn zones, based purely on
available CAPE. Best spot may be invof nwrn Passaic into Bergen
with some upslope suppling trigger help.
Went with the NBM for PoP and temps thru the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend with a frontal
boundary in the vicinity.
* Showers are most likely on Saturday and then again late
Sunday into Sunday night.
* Improving conditions are likely Monday with high pressure
slowly building towards the area on Tuesday.
* Seasonably cool temperatures Saturday should trend warmer on
Sunday with some 70s possible for NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower
Hudson Valley. Temperatures then trend cooler early next week.
High pressure over New England Friday evening will quickly pass
offshore. The frontal boundary that moved south of the area
early Friday will begin retreating northward as a warm front
into Saturday. This is in response to an amplifying shortwave
over the southwest U.S. and anomalously strong ridge over the
western Atlantic. Friday night will be dry with increasing
chances for rain on Saturday. The most organized forcing passes
to our northwest, but warm advection and overrunning support the
likely PoPs (60-70 percent) from the latest model consensus.
The northern tier stands the best chance (80 percent), closer to
the larger scale lift from a strong upper jet well north of the
area. Rain remains possible Saturday night, but could trend
towards more light rain and drizzle as the warm front moves
closer to the area.
There is still some question with the placement of the warm
front on Sunday. The model trends have been coming together
and placing the warm front north of the area on Sunday. This
seems reasonable given the synoptic pattern. Questions remain on
the amount of clouds and any lingering showers despite
increasing confidence on the placement of the warm front. The
main challenge will then be with how warm temperatures will
ultimately get. There is still a large spread in the NBM with
25th percentile showing highs in the upper 50 to mid 60s. The
deterministic NBM seems to lie close to the 75th percentile,
which yields highs in the middle to upper 60s inland with some
lower 70s in NE NJ, parts of Lower Hudson Valley and NYC metro.
Temperatures across coastal CT and Long Island stay in the lower
60s due to onshore flow. It should also be noted the NBM 90th
percentile brings temperatures into the lower 80s in NE NJ with
the usual warmer spots away from the coast (Long Island,
Southern CT) into the mid 70s. Have sided close to the NBM
deterministic for now, but there is room for adjustment upwards
for locations away from the coast, especially if the latest
trends continue.
The western Atlantic ridge also weakens as the upper trough
approaches Sunday night. This will allow low pressure and its
associated cold front to pass across the area. Showers are
likely Sunday night, but have left thunder out of the forecast
at this time with questions remaining on instability. The front
will push offshore early Monday leading to improving conditions
to start next week. The upper trough is progged to remain over
the northeast early next week so high pressure will likely take
some time building in from the west.
Note: While there will be rain at times this weekend, the risk
of any impacts from flooding is very low as the flow is
progressive. The latest NBM probabilities for observed greater
than 1 inch in a 24 hour period this weekend remain very low and
generally 10 percent or less.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure retreats out into the Atlantic this afternoon,
while a warm front approaches from the south. The warm front
passes trough late tonight into Thursday morning.
Mainly VFR through this evening, but occasional MVFR possible
at the NYC terminals due to stratocu possible moving in from
the NJ coast. Conditions will then deteriorate overnight to
IFR/LIFR in low clouds, fog, and light rain or drizzle. There
will also be a chance of showers tonight into Thursday.
Improvement on Thursday in the warm sector will be mainly
confined to the NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals Thursday
afternoon. The eastern terminals will likely remain IFR/LIFR
through the day. KJFK will be a close call as to whether any
improvement makes its way into the terminal.
SE winds 10-15kt G20kt this afternoon will gradually veer
overnight, becoming S/SW with the passage of the warm front
Thursday morning. Gusts overnight will be more persistent along
the coast and may for a time drop off or be less frequent.
Gusts likely return in the warm sector Thursday afternoon.
LLWS expected late tonight and Thursday morning with S-SW winds
45-50 kt at 2kft.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gusts late afternoon/early evening may be occasional.
Amendments for flight category changes likely for tonight into
Thursday morning.
Low confidence visibility forecast Thursday morning. KJFK could
remain IFR/LIFR through Thursday afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon/Night: Eastern terminals remain LIFR/IFR
into Thursday evening before improving to VFR with a cold
frontal passage. The NYC and Lower Hudson Valley terminals will
likely see some improvement to MVFR in the afternoon and VFR in
the evening. S/SW gusts 20-30 kt, strongest along the coast.
Friday: Chance of MVFR in showers, especially in the morning
along the coast.
Saturday: MVFR to IFR with showers likely. E wind gusts 15-20kt.
Sunday: IFR in the morning, becoming MVFR. A chance of showers.
SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Monday: MVFR with a chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will remain elevated on the ern ocean today, and then winds
and seas increase thru Thu. SCA has been extended right thru Thu
as a result. SCA goes into effect for ANZ355 this eve, and goes
thru Thu as well. Winds on the remaining waters likely at SCA
lvls Thu, but held off on the advy for now. Winds and seas
gradually subside late Thu ngt and Fri.
There is a chance for dense fog on the waters late tngt into
Thu.
Cond should remain below SCA levels Friday night through
Saturday night. The next chance for SCA conditions appears to be
on Sunday as a warm front lifts north of the waters. Winds could
approach 25 kt on the ocean and seas likely build to 5-6 ft.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Thursday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Thursday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/BG/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS