408
FXUS61 KOKX 031608
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1208 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will lift across the area this afternoon. A cold
front then slowly moves through tonight into Friday. The front
returns as a warm front Saturday into Saturday night. A slow
moving cold front passes through the region Sunday into Monday.
A broad area of high pressure then builds south of the region
through the middle of the next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Convection moved across portions of the region this morning and
is exiting east of Long Island heading into early this
afternoon. Main hazards with this were just heavy rain and
lightning. Wind gusts have been limited with strong inversion
above the surface, limiting max gusts with low level jet to
about 50 percent of that low level jet. So, low level jet of
around 55-60 kt, we are seeing gusts maximize around 30 kt.
Expecting some more isolated to scattered shower activity this
afternoon.
Max temperatures lowered to match observed trends, with general
range of upper 50s for eastern parts of the region to near 70
for Northeast NJ and within the 60s in between. They are a few
degrees less than previously forecast. The warm front has not
made much progress northward. The warm front has been slower
than forecast in its northward movement. The warm front is
eventually expected to move north across the region this
afternoon. The passage across entire forecast area is expected
to be more in the latter half of this afternoon when SW flow
becomes more gusty.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front and associated middle level energy should enter
the area late this evening into the overnight. An upper level
jet streak will also pass to the north with the region lying in
the right entrance region, favorable for some enhanced synoptic
lift. Guidance hints at a few showers with the cold front
passage. There is little to no instability available and based
on the latest trends, SPC has moved the marginal risk southwest
of our area. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but feel
coverage is limited to include for the evening. The cold front
passes south of Long Island overnight. The aforementioned lift
from the upper jet and middle level energy will combine to
produce a band of showers north of the cold front as moisture
overruns the boundary. These showers may end up most widespread
across the southern half of the area after midnight and continue
through day break. The lift wanes after day break and any
lingering showers should diminish by mid Friday morning.
High pressure over southeastern Canada ridges down through
the northeast Friday afternoon supporting dry conditions.
Middle and upper level moisture will continue traversing around
the periphery of a western Atlantic ridge residing to our south
through Friday night. A few breaks are possible Friday
afternoon, but overall skies remain mostly cloudy. Highs on
Friday will be in the lower to middle 60s under a light
downsloping NW flow.
Surface ridging quickly retreats Friday night allowing the
boundary to our south to begin lifting north towards the
area. This occurs as the ridge axis aloft begins to shift to
our east and upper troughing to our west starts to translate
towards the region. Much of the energy associated with the
trough as well as lift from the upper jet reside well to our
north and west. However, there should be overrunning north of
the warm front supporting mainly light rain development through
the day. The rain likely continues into a portion of Saturday
night, potentially tapering off late as the warm front begins
to lift north of the area into early Sunday morning. Have
capped model consensus PoPs off at likely for now given the
strongest warm advection and larger scale lift will be to our
north. Highs on Saturday will be slightly below normal in the
lower 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models were generally in good agreement in the extended, so
the blended approach was used.
Periods of rain Sun into Mon as a slow moving cdfnt comes thru.
Sun will be the warmest day of the fcst period with the thermal
ridge over the area. Instability appears limited attm, and the
GFS is putting out minimal amounts of convective pcpn. As a
result, have not included tstm chances with this fcst.
A strong upr low begins to drop into the area late Mon into Tue.
The GFS suggests a weak low may spin up along the offshore
frontal boundary as it does. This would produce better chances
for additional pcpn late Mon thru Tue across the cwa,
particularly ern areas. The 00Z ECMWF does not support this
soln.
Regardless of whether low pres develops offshore, the upr low
itself should be capable of producing some shwrs with dpva and
steep lapse rates. Isold tstms with small hail possible in this
setup.
H85 drops to -10C or colder by Wed, keeping the middle of the
week somewhat cool, although deep mixing should offset somewhat
the cold airmass. Still, the guidance looks too warm during the
day, likely trending towards climo. Since we are at Day 7 with
Wed, elected to stick with the NBM for now. However, expect a
downward trend in the numbers unless somehow the pattern does
not shift as advertised over the last several days.
Most of the cwa will likely see some subfreezing temps either Tue
ngt or Wed ngt, or both. How cold will depend on wind and residual
stratocu.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A warm front just south of the area will lift through this
afternoon. A cold front will reach the area tonight, slowly
moving across on Fri.
Cond mostly IFR at 16Z except KLGA/KTEB (MVFR) and KISP (LIFR cigs).
Cond should gradually improve to MVFR at the NYC metros this
afternoon, but remain IFR/LIFR elsewhere into at least this evening.
There are chances for additional showers and possibly a tstm
tonight, but probability/coverage too low to mention in the TAF`s.
Winds have already shifted S-SW, with some gusts 20-30 kt mainly at
the Long Island/CT terminals. Winds should also become gusty at the
NYC metros this afternoon as cigs improve. Winds lighten invof the
cold front tonight, becoming NW late tonight.
LLWS expected into early this afternoon S-SW winds 50-60 kt at
FL020.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD likely for flight cat or winds deviating from fcst. Peak gusts
to 35 kt possible this afternoon.
The afternoon haze forecast for today at all arpts is MODERATE
(YELLOW).
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond, especially in the morning
along the coast.
Saturday: Showers likely with MVFR to IFR expected. E winds G15-
20kt.
Sunday: Chance of showers. IFR in the morning, becoming MVFR. SW
winds G15-20kt.
Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond, mainly in the morning.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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As a warm front lifts across the waters this afternoon, expect
sustained S winds 20-25 kt with gusts 25-30 kt on the ocean
waters. Sustained winds may be slightly weaker on the LI Sound,
LI Bays, and NY Harbor, but gusts up to 25 kt appear likely this
morning into the early evening. Have expanded the SCA to
include all of the Sound, LI Bays, and NY Harbor beginning 12z
and running it through 00z Friday. Winds on the waters will
weaken tonight with gusts to 25 kt remaining possible east of
Moriches Inlet. Ocean seas 5 to 8 ft expected today and will
slowly subside tonight. 5 ft seas likely linger east of Moriches
inlet on Friday morning so the SCA will run through 18z there.
Winds will remain below SCA levels Friday through Saturday night.
Seas may build close to 5 ft on the ocean late Saturday into
Saturday night as another warm front approaches.
The ocean will likely need a SCA for Sun and Mon, primarily for
seas, with a front passing thru the waters. Winds elsewhere blw SCA
lvls attm. Strengthening wly flow may require a SCA for all waters
Tue into Wed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor flooding possible late tonight into early Friday for
coastal sections with heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC/BG
MARINE...JMC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS/JM