528
FXUS61 KOKX 041950
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure passes overhead tonight. A warm front approaches the
area on Saturday and may lift to the north Saturday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heights rise aloft slightly tonight as ridging builds into the area.
A very strong ~190kt anticyclonically curved upper level jet streak
will build well north of the area in southeastern Canada. At the
surface, the cold front that passed through this morning will stall
offshore. High pressure centered to our north will move through
and offshore tonight.
With a northwesterly flow, some drier air is filtering into the
area. Clouds continue to gradually thin and clear from north to
south. The clearing will not last too long as mid and upper level
clouds increase around midnight with a wave of low pressure
approaching from the south west. So even though winds will be light
tonight, the cloud cover will not allow for efficient radiational
cooling. The winds also turn easterly as the high shifts offshore,
which will start to bring in an increase in low level moisture.
Stuck with NBM for low temperatures which gave 40s everywhere.
With some lift ahead of the approaching wave and associated warm
front, some light rain will be possible, mainly for NYC north
and west after midnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The warm front continues its approach on Saturday and may lift north
of the area Saturday night. There is some uncertainty across the
latest guidance on whether it will lift completely through or stall
somewhere over the area. Regardless, with the front at least nearby,
wet conditions are expected. There is also some disagreement
across the CAMs on exact timing of rain. The HRRR is the
fastest, bringing widespread rain in after 8AM. If this
verifies, the current forecast may be a few hours too slow. Much
of the rain will be light to locally moderate. However,
Saturday night elevated instability increases and may allow for
some heavier showers and thunder. No severe weather is expected.
Highs will be cooler than the normals for early April on
Saturday. Highs may just break 50 across LI, NYC and northeast
NJ, but likely stay in the 40s up in the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern CT. Lows Saturday night will actually run a bit warmer
than normal, in the 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The period begins with an amplified ridge in the west and a
developing eastern CONUS trough as the ridge in SW Atlantic migrates
east. A cold front slowly pushes in from the west and moves across
on Sunday. This will yield high end chance and lower end likely PoPs
for much of the CWA during the day Sunday. PoPs then increase
further Sunday night as some strung out PVA is progged just
downstream by NWP on a SW flow aloft. This should develop a wave or
waves of low pressure along the boundary late Sunday into Sunday
night / early Monday. Uncertainty remains slightly above average
with respect to how far to the south and east the cold front slows
down and possibly stalls late Sunday into early Monday. For now have
taken a middle of the road approach and followed consensus PoPs,
thus stuck very close to the NBM in this regard. Any low pressure
that develops gets east of the area later Monday into Monday night.
Thus, any likely PoPs move offshore Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. A secondary boundary, a cold / occluded type boundary
approaches into Tuesday morning. It won`t be until we get behind
this boundary that a large portion of the column dries out. Look for
strong cold air advection to follow with a W to NW flow as a cP air
mass out of Southern Canada builds. This will result in
temperatures not getting out of the 40s during the day Tuesday
with variable cloudiness with a cold pool aloft and likely
strat-cu cloud deck at times. 850 mb temps are progged to get
down to -10 to -12C with 1000- 500mb thickness in the lower 520s
by Wed AM. Wed AM wind chills are likely to get down into the
upper teens to lower 20s across a good portion of the area, with
actual air temperatures mainly around or below freezing. With
high pressure in control look for dry conditions for the mid
week. The high will begin to push offshore sometime on Thursday
with a return flow out of the south developing. Temperatures
begin to moderate on Thursday, with coastal areas remaining
rather chilly with a wind off the ocean during the afternoon
hours which will likely drop temperatures back into the 40s.
Towards Friday low pressure out of the Ohio Valley and its
attendant frontal system will start to draw closer. Any
precipitation though will likely hold off until either late in
the day or at night based on the latest NWP consensus.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will settle over the Mid Atlantic states by early
this evening before lifting back to the north late tonight into
Saturday. At the same time, high pressure will build in from NW,
passing to the north and east tonight.
VFR through tonight. Overrunning rain will begin to work into
the area Saturday morning, mainly after 12Z. Ceilings and
visibilities will gradually lower through the afternoon, with
IFR/LIFR conditions expected.
NW winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 15-20kt will
quickly drop off early this evening. Winds will then veer to the
N this evening, NE overnight, becoming ESE toward 12Z Saturday,
increasing to 10-15kt G20kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional gusts 15-20kt
early.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon/Night: Rain and/or drizzle likely with
IFR/LIFR conditions. Isolated thunderstorm possible at night.
SE winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.
Sunday: Becoming MVFR with a chance of showers, then MVFR/IFR in
rain Sunday night.
Monday: Rain, mainly early, with MVFR conditions, IFR possible.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers. NW winds 15kt,
G25-30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub SCA conditions expected tonight with high pressure passing
overhead. An easterly flow picks up on Saturday and conditions
may reach marginal SCA criteria on the ocean waters. For now, no
headline is in effect. Winds lower again on Saturday night.
Mainly sub advisory conditions prevail on the coastal waters, with
perhaps the eastern ocean waters being an exception with seas around
5 ft at times Sunday through Monday night.
Behind a secondary cold front Tuesday look for small craft
conditions to develop on all the waters with a W to NW wind
increasing. A brief period of marginal gales is possible late in the
day Tuesday into the first half of Tuesday night. Sub advisory
conditions return by Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT