252
FXUS61 KOKX 050035
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
835 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passes overhead tonight. A warm front approaches the
area on Saturday and may lift to the north Saturday night. A cold
front pushes through Sunday, followed by weak low pressure
tracking offshore on Monday into Monday night. A secondary cold
front pivots through late Monday night into early Tuesday. High
pressure builds for mid week before pushing offshore Thursday. A
frontal system may approach late on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
No significant adjustments made with this latest update as the
forecast remains on track. Only made a slight adjustment with
more cloud cover further north through this evening based on
latest obs / satellite trends.
Heights rise aloft slightly tonight as ridging builds into the area.
A very strong ~190kt anticyclonically curved upper level jet streak
will build well north of the area in southeastern Canada. At the
surface, the cold front that passed through this morning will stall
offshore. High pressure centered to our north will move through
and offshore tonight.
With a northwesterly flow, some drier air is filtering into the
area. Clouds continue to gradually thin and clear from north to
south. The clearing will not last too long as mid and upper level
clouds increase around midnight with a wave of low pressure
approaching from the south west. So even though winds will be light
tonight, the cloud cover will not allow for efficient radiational
cooling. The winds also turn easterly as the high shifts offshore,
which will start to bring in an increase in low level moisture.
Stuck with NBM for low temperatures which gave 40s everywhere.
With some lift ahead of the approaching wave and associated warm
front, some light rain will be possible, mainly for NYC north
and west after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front continues its approach on Saturday and may lift north
of the area Saturday night. There is some uncertainty across the
latest guidance on whether it will lift completely through or stall
somewhere over the area. Regardless, with the front at least nearby,
wet conditions are expected. There is also some disagreement
across the CAMs on exact timing of rain. The HRRR is the
fastest, bringing widespread rain in after 8AM. If this
verifies, the current forecast may be a few hours too slow. Much
of the rain will be light to locally moderate. However,
Saturday night elevated instability increases and may allow for
some heavier showers and thunder. No severe weather is expected.
Highs will be cooler than the normals for early April on
Saturday. Highs may just break 50 across LI, NYC and northeast
NJ, but likely stay in the 40s up in the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern CT. Lows Saturday night will actually run a bit warmer
than normal, in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The period begins with an amplified ridge in the west and a
developing eastern CONUS trough as the ridge in SW Atlantic migrates
east. A cold front slowly pushes in from the west and moves across
on Sunday. This will yield high end chance and lower end likely PoPs
for much of the CWA during the day Sunday. PoPs then increase
further Sunday night as some strung out PVA is progged just
downstream by NWP on a SW flow aloft. This should develop a wave or
waves of low pressure along the boundary late Sunday into Sunday
night / early Monday. Uncertainty remains slightly above average
with respect to how far to the south and east the cold front slows
down and possibly stalls late Sunday into early Monday. For now have
taken a middle of the road approach and followed consensus PoPs,
thus stuck very close to the NBM in this regard. Any low pressure
that develops gets east of the area later Monday into Monday night.
Thus, any likely PoPs move offshore Monday afternoon into Monday
evening. A secondary boundary, a cold / occluded type boundary
approaches into Tuesday morning. It won`t be until we get behind
this boundary that a large portion of the column dries out. Look for
strong cold air advection to follow with a W to NW flow as a cP air
mass out of Southern Canada builds. This will result in
temperatures not getting out of the 40s during the day Tuesday
with variable cloudiness with a cold pool aloft and likely
strat-cu cloud deck at times. 850 mb temps are progged to get
down to -10 to -12C with 1000- 500mb thickness in the lower 520s
by Wed AM. Wed AM wind chills are likely to get down into the
upper teens to lower 20s across a good portion of the area, with
actual air temperatures mainly around or below freezing. With
high pressure in control look for dry conditions for the mid
week. The high will begin to push offshore sometime on Thursday
with a return flow out of the south developing. Temperatures
begin to moderate on Thursday, with coastal areas remaining
rather chilly with a wind off the ocean during the afternoon
hours which will likely drop temperatures back into the 40s.
Towards Friday low pressure out of the Ohio Valley and its
attendant frontal system will start to draw closer. Any
precipitation though will likely hold off until either late in
the day or at night based on the latest NWP consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure moves across and offshore tonight. A warm front
approaches from the south late tonight into Saturday. The front
slows down on its northward progress Saturday into Saturday
night.
VFR initially through much of tonight. Towards daybreak Saturday,
rain chances increase with MVFR becoming more probable. Rain in
this time period, late tonight into early Saturday morning,
will probably be more intermittent. Rain is expected to become more
steady Saturday by mid to late morning with MVFR becoming likely.
Conditions are expected to further deteriorate to IFR late afternoon
into evening Saturday as rain continues. LIFR will be possible
late afternoon into evening Saturday with potential furthering
lowering of stratus and some potential fog development.
Winds will be NW initially this evening and near 5-10 kts. Winds
further lower in speed late this evening and overnight while
becoming more NE. Winds become more easterly Saturday and
increase to near 10-15 kt. Gusts can be expected for all but
KSWF which will be near 20 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of MVFR and IFR could be 1-4 hours off from TAF.
Conditions could fluctuate between MVFR and IFR Saturday
afternoon.
Saturday evening, could have some fog development with LIFR
possible.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: Possible fog. Otherwise, rain showers. A slight
chance of thunderstorms. IFR to locally LIFR. Easterly wind gusts 15-
20 kt along coast subsiding.
Sunday: Rain showers likely with MVFR to IFR possible.
Monday: Rain showers mainly early with MVFR possible. Otherwise
mainly VFR.
Tuesday: Possible early rain showers for most terminals, possible
early rain/snow showers for KSWF. MVFR to IFR possible early,
otherwise VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conditions expected tonight with high pressure passing
overhead. An easterly flow picks up on Saturday and conditions
may reach marginal SCA criteria on the ocean waters. For now, no
headline is in effect. Winds lower again on Saturday night.
Mainly sub advisory conditions prevail on the coastal waters, with
perhaps the eastern ocean waters being an exception with seas around
5 ft at times Sunday through Monday night.
Behind a secondary cold front Tuesday look for small craft
conditions to develop on all the waters with a W to NW wind
increasing. A brief period of marginal gales is possible late in the
day Tuesday into the first half of Tuesday night. Sub advisory
conditions return by Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT