541
FXUS61 KOKX 051438
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1038 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front pushes in early today, then stalls over/near the
area until a cold front pushes in Sunday morning. The cold front
stall nearby to the south Sunday afternoon. A wave of low
pressure tracks through along the stalled boundary Sunday night
and exits east Monday. A secondary cold front moves through late
Monday night into early Tuesday. High pressure builds for mid
week before pushing offshore Thursday. A frontal system may
approach late on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No significant adjustments made with this latest update as the
forecast remains on track. A weak low pressure system in the
Ohio River Valley tracks into southern Ontario today into early
tonight before exiting into northeast Canada early Sunday. This
low pressure system brings a warm front through the area this
morning into this afternoon. The warm front is expected to stall
over the area or just to the north.
The warm front will lead to increased moisture and a source of lift
for showers throughout the day. Most of these showers will occur
mid/late morning into early evening, tracking mainly west to east
and are expected to be scattered to numerous in coverage.
As the stalled front lingers, another round of showers are expected
Sunday night. 00Z CAMs are in agreement, introducing increased
instability late this evening into tonight. Some thunderstorms are
possible. Given the enhanced nature of thunderstorms and available
moisture, could see a brief moderate to heavy downpour, but not
expecting any flooding issues given the quick progression of the
system. Total QPF today into tonight looks to be around 0.5", but
could see isolated higher totals closer to 1-1.5" in any
thunderstorms tonight.
00Z CAMs also agree on fog advecting in over Long Island and
possibly into coastal locations along the LI Sound and NJ coast
tonight.
High temperatures today should reach the low-50s in the afternoon,
with lows tonight not too far off in the low to upper-40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will push in Sunday morning ending most shower
activity in the morning and clearing out the fog. It appears
most available guidance agree on the cold front being weak and
stalling nearby, over the area or just to the south. This means
isolated to spotty showers are still possible on Sunday.
A wave of low pressure will track along the stalled front and
over the region Sunday night. Showers will be numerous to
widespread with this system aided by PWATs peaking around 1.75",
positive vorticity advection from a deepening longwave trough
over the Great Lakes, and being located within the upper-level
divergent right entrance region of a jet streak to our north.
Temperatures should be warm enough for mainly liquid precip, but
its possible some snow could mix in in the far interior late
Sunday night into early Monday morning, if temperatures are able
to drop low enough.
This wave of low pressure will exit Monday morning. Isolated to
spotty showers may still occur on Monday, but not much rain is
expected as we lay between, but far enough away, a developing
surface low along a shortwave to the south and another surface
low to the northwest embedded at the base of a longwave trough.
Temperatures on Sunday should warm to the mid/upper-50s prior
to the cold front. Sunday night will be cold with lows in the
low-40s to low-30s. Monday follows suit with highs in the
mid/upper-40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A secondary cold front moving through late Monday night into
early Tuesday will usher in a cold airmass for the middle of the
week, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal Tuesday
through Wednesday night. Temperatures return to more seasonal
levels for Thursday and Friday. The coldest night will be
Tuesday night with freezing temperatures expected across the
region, which has trended slightly colder since Friday.
Frost/freeze headlines will be possible for Tuesday night with
the growing season having begun in the New York City metro area.
There will be a chance of showers with the passage of the cold
front Monday night into Tuesday, and then much of the week will
be dry as high pressure builds in, and moves offshore late
Thursday. Mainly followed the deterministic NBM guidance, except
for winds and gusts Tuesday, going toward the 75th percentile
as gusty west to northwest winds are likely during the day with
strong cold advection. The next chance of precipitation will be
late next week into the weekend as a frontal system may impact
the region as an upper and surface low approach. A blocking
pattern sets up with the trough over the east coast, and the
upper low closing off, and unsettled weather may remain through
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front approaches from the south through the afternoon.
The front likely becomes stationary in the vicinity tonight. A
cold front will then move across the terminals early Sunday
morning.
Mainly VFR this morning. Intermittent -RA expected, which become
more likely this afternoon and evening. Conditions will slowly
fall to MVFR late morning and early afternoon, then IFR into
early evening. LIFR conditions are then likely after sunset and
should continue overnight along with -RA. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible this evening. Conditions will likely
improve to VFR after sunrise Sunday.
Winds E-ESE around 15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt. Gusts should
begin diminishing this afternoon with flow gradually falling
below 10 kt this evening. Winds may then become variable
overnight before shifting to the NW early Sunday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of lowering flight categories.
MVFR/IFR may develop 1-3 hours off from forecast this afternoon.
Timing of LIFR may be off by several hours. Low confidence on
visibilities overnight.
Isolated thunderstorm possible this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: IFR/LIFR with light rain and fog across Long Island and
southeastern Connecticut early, then improving to VFR. For the
NYC metro terminals and west, IFR is possible until around 13Z,
then becoming VFR. Winds NW gusts around 20 kt during the day.
MVFR to IFR returns Sunday night at all the terminals, with
rain showers.
Monday: Rain showers mainly early with MVFR possible. Otherwise
mainly VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the morning for the
terminals east of New York City. W-NW wind gusts near 20-25 kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds may exceed 25 kt on ocean waters mid-morning today into this
evening from a passing warm front. A SCA is in place on ocean waters
for this. Winds tonight will be below SCA criteria, but waves may
not be. Waves will build to 5 ft on ocean waters, but will last
longer on eastern ocean waters into tonight. SCAs are timed for
this.
Sunday into Monday, SCA criteria will not be met on most waters
except ocean waters where 5 ft waves remain a possibility.
Ocean seas remain elevated at SCA levels Monday night with the non
ocean waters below advisory. Then during the day Tuesday northwest
wind gusts increase to SCA levels across the forecast waters in the
wake of a secondary cold front. Winds and seas remain at SCA levels
into Tuesday evening, and then begin to subside west to east as high
pressure builds into the waters, falling below advisory levels on
the non ocean waters by late Tuesday night. Ocean seas east of
Moriches Inlet may remain at SCA levels into Wednesday morning. Sub
advisory conditions return by midday Wednesday, and remain below
into Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET