106
FXUS61 KOKX 051720
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
120 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front stalls over/near the area this evening until a
cold front pushes in Sunday morning. The cold front stall nearby
to the south Sunday afternoon. A wave of low pressure tracks
through along the stalled boundary Sunday night and exits east
Monday. A secondary cold front moves through late Monday night
into early Tuesday. High pressure builds for mid week before
pushing offshore Thursday. A frontal system may approach late on
Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant adjustments made with this latest update as the
forecast remains on track. A weak low pressure system in the
Ohio River Valley tracks into southern Ontario today into early
tonight before exiting into northeast Canada early Sunday. This
low pressure system brings a warm front through the area this
afternoon. The warm front is expected to stall over the area or
just to the north.
The warm front will lead to increased moisture and a source of lift
for showers throughout the day. Most of these showers will occur
into early evening, tracking mainly west to east and are
expected to be scattered to numerous in coverage.
As the stalled front lingers, another round of showers are expected
Sunday night. 00Z CAMs are in agreement, introducing increased
instability late this evening into tonight. Some thunderstorms are
possible. Given the enhanced nature of thunderstorms and available
moisture, could see a brief moderate to heavy downpour, but not
expecting any flooding issues given the quick progression of the
system. Total QPF today into tonight looks to be around 0.5", but
could see isolated higher totals closer to 1-1.5" in any
thunderstorms tonight.
00Z CAMs also agree on fog advecting in over Long Island and
possibly into coastal locations along the LI Sound and NJ coast
tonight.
High temperatures today should reach the low-50s in the afternoon,
with lows tonight not too far off in the low to upper-40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will push in Sunday morning ending most shower
activity in the morning and clearing out the fog. It appears
most available guidance agree on the cold front being weak and
stalling nearby, over the area or just to the south. This means
isolated to spotty showers are still possible on Sunday.
A wave of low pressure will track along the stalled front and
over the region Sunday night. Showers will be numerous to
widespread with this system aided by PWATs peaking around 1.75",
positive vorticity advection from a deepening longwave trough
over the Great Lakes, and being located within the upper-level
divergent right entrance region of a jet streak to our north.
Temperatures should be warm enough for mainly liquid precip, but
its possible some snow could mix in in the far interior late
Sunday night into early Monday morning, if temperatures are able
to drop low enough.
This wave of low pressure will exit Monday morning. Isolated to
spotty showers may still occur on Monday, but not much rain is
expected as we lay between, but far enough away, a developing
surface low along a shortwave to the south and another surface
low to the northwest embedded at the base of a longwave trough.
Temperatures on Sunday should warm to the mid/upper-50s prior
to the cold front. Sunday night will be cold with lows in the
low-40s to low-30s. Monday follows suit with highs in the
mid/upper-40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A secondary cold front moving through late Monday night into
early Tuesday will usher in a cold airmass for the middle of the
week, with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal Tuesday
through Wednesday night. Temperatures return to more seasonal
levels for Thursday and Friday. The coldest night will be
Tuesday night with freezing temperatures expected across the
region, which has trended slightly colder since Friday.
Frost/freeze headlines will be possible for Tuesday night with
the growing season having begun in the New York City metro area.
There will be a chance of showers with the passage of the cold
front Monday night into Tuesday, and then much of the week will
be dry as high pressure builds in, and moves offshore late
Thursday. Mainly followed the deterministic NBM guidance, except
for winds and gusts Tuesday, going toward the 75th percentile
as gusty west to northwest winds are likely during the day with
strong cold advection. The next chance of precipitation will be
late next week into the weekend as a frontal system may impact
the region as an upper and surface low approach. A blocking
pattern sets up with the trough over the east coast, and the
upper low closing off, and unsettled weather may remain through
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front approaches from the south through the afternoon,
stalling in the vicinity tonight. A cold front will then move
across the terminals early Sunday morning.
Conditions will deteriorate this afternoon with rain continuing
to overspread the terminals. Conditions will lower to MVFR
through 21z then IFR into the early evening. LIFR is expected
overnight before improving ceilings and visibilities early
Sunday morning behind the cold front passage. Rain will likely
continue tonight, but may be intermittent. An isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this evening as well.
Winds E-ESE around 15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt. Gusts should
begin diminishing this afternoon with flow gradually falling
below 10 kt this evening. Winds become variable with the warm
front in the vicinity overnight before shifting to the NW early
Sunday morning behind the cold front passage. Gusts 15-20 kt
possible Sunday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of lowering flight categories.
MVFR/IFR may develop 1-2 hours off from forecast this
afternoon. Timing of LIFR tonight may be off by several hours.
Low confidence on visibilities overnight.
Isolated thunderstorm possible this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday Afternoon: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Sunday Night-Monday: MVFR-IFR with showers into Monday morning.
Wet snow or sleet could mix in at KSWF early Monday morning.
Improvement to VFR Monday afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the AM east of
NYC metro terminals. W-NW wind gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing at
night.
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds may exceed 25 kt on ocean waters mid-morning today into this
evening from a passing warm front. A SCA is in place on ocean waters
for this. Winds tonight will be below SCA criteria, but waves may
not be. Waves will build to 5 ft on ocean waters, but will last
longer on eastern ocean waters into tonight. SCAs are timed for
this.
Sunday into Monday, SCA criteria will not be met on most waters
except ocean waters where 5 ft waves remain a possibility.
Ocean seas remain elevated at SCA levels Monday night with the non
ocean waters below advisory. Then during the day Tuesday northwest
wind gusts increase to SCA levels across the forecast waters in the
wake of a secondary cold front. Winds and seas remain at SCA levels
into Tuesday evening, and then begin to subside west to east as high
pressure builds into the waters, falling below advisory levels on
the non ocean waters by late Tuesday night. Ocean seas east of
Moriches Inlet may remain at SCA levels into Wednesday morning. Sub
advisory conditions return by midday Wednesday, and remain below
into Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET