581
FXUS61 KOKX 051945
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front lifts north, then stalls over/near the area until
a cold front pushes in Sunday morning. The cold front moves
through our region Sunday. Low pressure tracks along a stalled
boundary Sunday night and exits east Monday. A couple of cold
fronts moves through late Monday night and Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday Night into Wednesday,
before pushing offshore Thursday. A slow moving frontal system
may affect the area Thursday Night into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A weak low pressure system tracks into southern Ontario through
early tonight before exiting into northeast Canada early
Sunday. This low pressure system brings a warm front through the
area resulting in showers across the region. These showers will
track from west to east and are expected to be scattered to
numerous in coverage.
Some elevated instability this afternoon can support a few rumbles
of thunder and steadier rainfall rates. But not expecting any
flooding issues given the quick progression of the system. Total QPF
today into tonight looks to be around 0.5", but could see isolated
higher totals closer to 1-1.5" in any thunderstorms tonight.
Areas of dense fog are also possible across coastal locations along
the LI Sound and NJ coast tonight.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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A cold front, pushes through the area by mid day Sunday. Another
round of showers will be possible just ahead of the cold front with
a period of dry weather possible later Sunday afternoon and evening.
A wave of low pressure will then track along the stalled front and
move over the region Sunday night. Rain could be locally heavy
at times Sunday night. While some thunder cannot be ruled out,
instability looks rather weak which should significantly limit
any thunder.
Temperatures should be warm enough for mainly liquid precip, but its
possible some snow could mix in in the far interior late Sunday
night, if temperatures are able to drop low enough.
Temperatures on Sunday should warm to the mid to upper 50s. Sunday
night will be cold with lows in the low 40s to low 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mean troughing pattern develops across the NE US during the early
week and remains through the week, bringing an unsettled start and
end to the week.
First a northern stream shortwave digging around northern Quebec
polar low approaches the region Mon Night, with a ne shearing
southern shortwave lifting through, and then moving across Tue/Tue
Night. Approaching vorticity and right rear jet lift will help to
induce several waves of low pressure along a stationary front to the
south of the region Sun Night into Mon. This will have a widespread
area of light to moderate overrunning precipitation across the
region Sunday night into Monday afternoon, gradually drying out
aloft from NW to SE Mon aft/eve in wake of southern shortwave and
departing low. Thermal profiles support a rain event for much of the
region, except across northern and higher terrain portions of the
LoHud and SW CT, where a wet snow/sleet mixture is possible late Sun
Night thru Mon AM. Potential for some patchy light slushy accum
across highest terrain and mainly grassy surfaces early Mon Am, with
surface temps likely at or just above freezing and potential for a
700-800mb warm layer. April sun angle and light precip rates should
preclude any localized wintry precip concerns after daybreak.
Stratus and patchy fog/drizzle possible Mon Night in wake of frontal
waves, and ahead of approaching cold front with low-level
saturation but mid-level drying. Temps appear to remain above
freezing for the most part, but may have to monitor for some patchy
freezing drizzle (patchy black ice with any breaks in stratus)
across interior higher terrain as temps drop to around freezing.
Cold frontal passage expected late Mon Night/early Tue Am in
response to approaching polar short wave, and resultant clipper
system moving NE through the St Lawrence River Valley. Drying
conditions and caa on gusty NW flow (NW 15-20 gusts 25-35 mph) in
wake of initial cold front, and likely secondary polar front Tue
aft/eve with polar shortwave passage.
Modified polar high builds in and across Tue Night into Wed as upper
flow briefly flattens, with potential for widespread sub freezing
conds outside of NYC proper Tue Night. Frost/freeze headlines may be
needed for NYC/NY metro suburbs where growing season has started.
The flatter flow and surface high pressure will be short lived, as a
PAC shortwave dives into the central plains and then Ohio Valley
Thu/Fri, potentially setting up an anomalous longitudinally deep
east coast trough late week into the weekend (with possible 4-5 std
below normal 500 MB southern low development at its base). At the
surface a resultant Mid-Mississippi River Valley/Ohio Valley low and
associated frontal system will likely approach the region late Thu,
and then potentially stall near the region Fri thru the weekend
(with potential coastal low development) as it becomes aligned with
the N/S deepening east coast trough and potential ne lifting
southern low. Good general model agreement in the synoptics, but
inherent 5-7 day model spread in location/amplitude of trough
development, and timing/location/intensity of closed low developing
at it base. Which feeds into low predictability on sensible weather
details Fri into next weekend. Overall through, potential for an
unsettled Fri-Sun.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A warm front approaches from the south into the evening,
stalling in the vicinity overnight. A cold front will then move
across the terminals early Sunday morning.
Conditions will deteriorate the rest of the afternoon into the
evening with rain and lowering flight categories. MVFR is likely to
develop through 22z with IFR after sunset. LIFR conditions are
expected overnight before improving ceilings and visibilities early
Sunday morning behind the cold front passage. Rain will likely
continue tonight, but may be intermittent. An isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this evening as well.
Winds E-ESE 10-15 kt, with gusts 20-25 kt. Gusts should
begin diminishing this afternoon with flow gradually falling
below 10 kt this evening. Winds become variable with the warm
front in the vicinity overnight before shifting to the NW early
Sunday morning behind the cold front passage. Gusts 15-20 kt
possible Sunday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories through tonight.
MVFR/IFR may develop 1-2 hours off from forecast. Timing
of LIFR tonight may be off by several hours. Low confidence on
visibilities overnight.
Isolated thunderstorm possible this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday Afternoon: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Sunday Night-Monday: MVFR-IFR with showers into Monday morning.
Wet snow or sleet could mix in at KSWF early Monday morning.
Improvement to VFR Monday afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the AM east of
NYC metro terminals. W-NW wind gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing at
night.
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A SCA is in effect on the ocean waters as winds gusts exceed 25 kt
with a passing warm front. Winds fall below SCA criteria tonight,
but waves will remain at 5 ft on the ocean waters, especially
across the eastern ocean waters. As a result the SCA has been
extended across the eastern ocean waters through Monday morning.
Marginal 5ft ocean seas may continue on Monday into Monday evening,
mainly in a 4-5ft@8 sec S swell, but a weak offshore flow.
SCA winds and ocean seas likely on all waters Tue into Tue Night, in
wake of a couple of cold fronts. Winds and seas subside below SCA
late Tue Night into Wed AM from west to east as high pressure builds
into the waters. Sub advisory remain through Thursday as high
pressure slide across.
Potential for SCA conditions to return for the ocean waters Fri into
next weekend, but low predictability at this point.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$