371
FXUS61 KOKX 052334
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front approaches tonight, stalling south of the region,
before a cold front pushes through Sunday morning. Low pressure
tracks along this stalled boundary Sunday night and exits east
Monday. A couple of cold fronts moves through late Monday night
and Tuesday afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday
Night into Wednesday, before pushing offshore Thursday. A slow
moving frontal system may affect the area Thursday Night into
next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deep SW upper flow across the region, with convectively induced
vorticity stream moving into the region ahead of northern
stream trough moving east through Ontario/Quebec.
At the surface, a weak warm front approaches the area tonight
ahead of elongated Tennessee River Valley low pressure moving
towards the mid Atlantic, followed by an approaching
cold/occluded front late tonight into Sunday Am.
Stratus, patchy drizzle and developing fog expected ahead of
the warm front this evening with moistening under a strong low
level inversion. Patchy dense fog possible over land,
particularly near the water.
Increasing potential for shower activity and possibly embedded
elevated tsra for coastal areas after 10pm with increased
theta-e advection and marginal elevated instability along and to
the north of the approaching warm front in response to
developing low-level jet sliding to the south. This will slide
east overnight, with additional rain shower activity sinking se
late tonight into Sun morning with se sinking occluded/cold
front.
Total QPF tonight looks to be around 1/4 to 1/2", but could see
isolated higher totals closer to 1-1.5" in any thunderstorms
tonight.
Gradual moderation in temps expected overnight (rising into the
mid 40s interior to lower 50s coast by daybreak) with waa aloft
and weakening CAD flow, particularly coastal areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front, pushes through the area by mid day Sunday. Another
round of showers will be possible just ahead of the cold front with
a period of dry weather possible later Sunday afternoon and evening.
A wave of low pressure will then track along the stalled front and
move over the region Sunday night. Rain could be locally heavy
at times Sunday night. While some thunder cannot be ruled out,
instability looks rather weak which should significantly limit
any thunder.
Temperatures should be warm enough for mainly liquid precip, but its
possible some snow could mix in in the far interior late Sunday
night, if temperatures are able to drop low enough.
Temperatures on Sunday should warm to the mid to upper 50s. Sunday
night will be cold with lows in the low 40s to low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mean troughing pattern develops across the NE US during the early
week and remains through the week, bringing an unsettled start and
end to the week.
First a northern stream shortwave digging around northern Quebec
polar low approaches the region Mon Night, with a ne shearing
southern shortwave lifting through, and then moving across Tue/Tue
Night. Approaching vorticity and right rear jet lift will help to
induce several waves of low pressure along a stationary front to the
south of the region Sun Night into Mon. This will have a widespread
area of light to moderate overrunning precipitation across the
region Sunday night into Monday afternoon, gradually drying out
aloft from NW to SE Mon aft/eve in wake of southern shortwave and
departing low. Thermal profiles support a rain event for much of the
region, except across northern and higher terrain portions of the
LoHud and SW CT, where a wet snow/sleet mixture is possible late Sun
Night thru Mon AM. Potential for some patchy light slushy accum
across highest terrain and mainly grassy surfaces early Mon Am, with
surface temps likely at or just above freezing and potential for a
700-800mb warm layer. April sun angle and light precip rates should
preclude any localized wintry precip concerns after daybreak.
Stratus and patchy fog/drizzle possible Mon Night in wake of frontal
waves, and ahead of approaching cold front with low-level
saturation but mid-level drying. Temps appear to remain above
freezing for the most part, but may have to monitor for some patchy
freezing drizzle (patchy black ice with any breaks in stratus)
across interior higher terrain as temps drop to around freezing.
Cold frontal passage expected late Mon Night/early Tue Am in
response to approaching polar short wave, and resultant clipper
system moving NE through the St Lawrence River Valley. Drying
conditions and caa on gusty NW flow (NW 15-20 gusts 25-35 mph) in
wake of initial cold front, and likely secondary polar front Tue
aft/eve with polar shortwave passage.
Modified polar high builds in and across Tue Night into Wed as upper
flow briefly flattens, with potential for widespread sub freezing
conds outside of NYC proper Tue Night. Frost/freeze headlines may be
needed for NYC/NY metro suburbs where growing season has started.
The flatter flow and surface high pressure will be short lived, as a
PAC shortwave dives into the central plains and then Ohio Valley
Thu/Fri, potentially setting up an anomalous longitudinally deep
east coast trough late week into the weekend (with possible 4-5 std
below normal 500 MB southern low development at its base). At the
surface a resultant Mid-Mississippi River Valley/Ohio Valley low and
associated frontal system will likely approach the region late Thu,
and then potentially stall near the region Fri thru the weekend
(with potential coastal low development) as it becomes aligned with
the N/S deepening east coast trough and potential ne lifting
southern low. Good general model agreement in the synoptics, but
inherent 5-7 day model spread in location/amplitude of trough
development, and timing/location/intensity of closed low developing
at it base. Which feeds into low predictability on sensible weather
details Fri into next weekend. Overall through, potential for an
unsettled Fri-Sun.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front approaches from the south into this evening,
stalling in the vicinity overnight. A cold front will then move
across the terminals early Sunday morning.
Conditions will deteriorate this eve, with LIFR conditions
overnight. Periods of RA and DZ will continue tonight. An
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this evening, but the
prob is very low attm.
The rain ends, along with improving ceilings and visibilities
Sunday morning behind the cold frontal passage.
Winds become variable with the warm front in the vicinity
overnight before shifting to the NW early Sunday morning behind
the cold front. Gusts 15-20 kt possible Sunday morning. The
flow lightens by the end of the day and into Sun ngt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories through
tonight. Timing of LIFR tonight may be off by a few hours. Low
confidence on exact visibilities overnight.
Isolated thunderstorm possible this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday Night-Monday: MVFR-IFR with showers into Monday morning.
Wet snow or sleet could mix in at KSWF early Monday morning.
Improvement to VFR Monday afternoon.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the AM east of
NYC metro terminals. W-NW wind gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing at
night.
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dense fog expected on all waters tonight ahead of approaching
warm front, with improvement from NW to SE Sun AM in wake of
cold front. Otherwise, E/NE SCA winds subside this evening as
warm front approaches and gradient weakens, but SCA seas still
likely to persist thru the weekend for ocean waters. Marginal
5ft ocean seas may continue on Monday into Monday evening,
mainly in a 4-5ft@8 sec S swell, but a weak offshore flow.
SCA winds and ocean seas likely on all waters Tue into Tue Night, in
wake of a couple of cold fronts. Winds and seas subside below SCA
late Tue Night into Wed AM from west to east as high pressure builds
into the waters. Sub advisory remain through Thursday as high
pressure slide across.
Potential for SCA conditions to return for the ocean waters Fri into
next weekend, but low predictability at this point.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/NV
NEAR TERM...20/NV
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DS/JMC
MARINE...20/NV
HYDROLOGY...20/NV