159
FXUS61 KOKX 060944
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
544 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes this morning ans stalls south of the
area this afternoon/evening. A wave of low pressure follows
along the stalled boundary tonight into early tomorrow. Low
pressure then moves through southern Ontario bringing a stronger
cold front Monday night. Low pressure then departs northeast on
Tuesday as high pressure builds from the southwest into
Wednesday. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday night. A slow
moving frontal system impacts the region late Thursday into next
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor adjustments were made to the forecast. Fog was
removed for the remainder of the morning. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track.
A cold front will pass through this morning and stall south of the
area this afternoon/evening. Given the weak nature of the cold
front, it does not do a very good job at clearing out moisture. With
pockets of positive vorticity advection aloft, periods isolated to
spotty light showers will be possible this morning through this
evening.
Highs today will be warmer than yesterday in the low/mid-50s with
areas of the NYC metro and urban NE NJ, nearing 60 in the
upper-50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Periods of rain tonight thru early tomorrow, with snow and
sleet mixing in in the interior late tonight, early tomorrow.
Only trace accumulations of wet snow.
* Rain ends Mon aft/eve.
* A strong cold front Monday night brings breezy weather Tuesday
and cold air with widespread freezes Tuesday night.
A wave of low pressure will follow along and north of the
stalled frontal boundary located to our south tonight. This will
bring another round of showers through the night tonight and
into the morning tomorrow. Rainfall will be aided by our area
being located within the right entrance region of a jet streak
to our north. Given the colder air filtering in as 500mb heights
aloft begin to drop under northerly flow and cold air advection
at 850mb, we could see some sleet and snow mixing in in the
interior late tonight into early Monday morning. Snow ratios
will be low and any snow accumulations manly limited to a
trace.
The wave of low pressure that passes tonight will exit east through
the day on Monday, leading to the rain gradually ending NW to SE
late Monday morning into Monday evening.
Lows Sunday night will be in the upper to mid 30s. Highs on Monday
will be noticeably cooler than Sunday in the mid 40s.
A stronger cold front will be sent in by passing low pressure to our
north Monday night. We`ll lack moisture, so only slight chances for
light precip is expected Monday night. Snow may be mixed in with any
precip in the interior, but likely staying liquid at the coast,
unless briefly mixed in as it ends. Lows Monday night will be in the
mid-30s at the coast and NYC to the mid/upper-20s in Orange county,
given the earlier passage of the cold front there.
The Tuesday into Tuesday night timeframe we`ll see much colder
temperatures, drier weather, breezy conditions and mainly clear
skies.
Low pressure exits northeast Tuesday as high pressure builds in from
the southwest through Tuesday night. The departing low will leave us
in a stronger pressure gradient resulting in a WNW wind of 15-20 mph
on Tuesday with peak gusts in the afternoon 30-35 mph. Winds will
gradually weaken Tuesday night as the pressure gradient weakens and
high pressure takes more control.
A deep longwave trough will center itself over the area with much
colder 850 mb temps. With strong cold air advection in place,
expecting highs of mid-40s to upper-30s Tuesday to drop down to the
low-30s the low-20s Tuesday night. Most of the area should drop
below freezing Tuesday night. The only areas that have started
growing season by Tuesday night are NYC, Nassau, Hudson, and Essex
counties. Temperatures here are expected to be very close to
freezing, so its possible we could reach Freeze Warning criteria in
these areas if temperatures remain as forecasted. Frost, however,
looks less likely given weakening winds may still be strong enough
to inhibit frost development.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper longwave trough remains over the eastern United States
Wednesday through Saturday as a shortwave rotates through the
trough Thursday into Saturday, deepening the upper trough as the
pattern becomes nearly blocked. This results is a slow moving
frontal system developing over the central plains Wednesday and
tracking into the region by Thursday night, and moving slowly
through into the upcoming weekend. With the slow moving system,
and increasing instability and precipitable water values around
1 inch, scattered thunderstorms are possible along with periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall. However, there is too much
uncertainty with the timing and have not yet included in the
forecast. Used the deterministic NBM parameters for the extended
period.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front slowly approaches from the south overnight, stalling
south of Long Island. A cold front will then move across the
terminals early this morning, becoming nearly stationary south of
the area. A wave of low pressure then tracks along the nearly
stationary front tonight.
Conditions have improved, especially visibilities. IFR ceilings
remain across the terminals, with some patches of MVFR and even
VFR. IFR, with periods of light rain, remains into early this
morning, with low chances, and isolated LIFR. Conditions then
improve slowly this morning, to MVFR, with VFR by afternoon.
Then late tonight conditions lower once again to MVFR with light
rain.
Winds generally light and variable, with a light northerly flow
developing. A NW/N flow strengthens this morning as a cold
front passes through. Gusts 15-20 kt possible during the
morning, but may be more occasional. the flow lightens by the
end of the day and into tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this
morning. Low confidence on visibilities and ceilings into early
this morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Sunday Night-Monday: MVFR-IFR with showers into Monday
afternoon. Wet snow or sleet could mix in at KSWF late Sunday night
into Monday morning. Improvement to VFR late Monday afternoon. A
slight chance of rain showers Monday night with MVFR, snow may mix
in at KSWF.
Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the AM east of NYC
metro terminals. W-NW wind gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing at night.
Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SCA criteria will be met today into tonight on ocean waters for
seas 5-6 ft, with SCAs in effect. Non-ocean waters will not
meet SCA criteria through tonight.
Waves will be below 5 ft on Monday through most of Monday night.
Early Tuesday through Tuesday night, waves will be between 5-8
ft on ocean waters, but stay below 5 ft on all other waters.
WNW winds will also gust up to 30 kt on Tuesday on all waters.
Small craft seas and gusts are possible on the ocean waters early
Wednesday morning with gusty northwest winds behind a cold frontal
passage, with winds and seas subsiding as high pressure builds over
the waters during Wednesday. Winds and seas on the ocean waters will
then remain below advisory levels through Friday. The non ocean
waters will be below advisory levels Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET