561
FXUS61 KOKX 061543
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1143 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front south of Long Island stalls this afternoon and
evening. A series of low pressures follow along the stalled
boundary tonight into Monday Night. Another cold front will move
across the area Monday night into early Tuesday. High pressure
will then build in through Wednesday. The high pressure moves
offshore Wednesday night. A slow moving frontal system impacts
the region late Thursday into next weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The cold front will stall south of Long Island this afternoon.
Some drier air will try to filter south this afternoon with a
few thin spots or brief breaks in the clouds, especially inland.
There may also be a few pockets of light rain and/or sprinkles
this afternoon as the region continues to lie south of a strong
upper jet stream to our north. Have lowered high temps another
degree or two based on the latest trends, with readings
struggling to rise into the lower 50s for most spots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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A series of low pressures move along the stalled boundary to our
south tonight into Monday. Large scale light entrance region of
the upper jet will support rain to redevelop tonight and
continue into Monday morning. The rain should taper off by
afternoon, but there is potential for rain to redevelop close to
the coast late Monday as another low moves along the front.
Rainfall amounts will be on the light side and generally two to
four tenths. Colder air will filter south and thermal profiles
across the interior support some mixing with wet snow and/or
sleet late tonight into early monday morning. Not anticipating
any accumulation at this time as temperatures are most likely
going to remain above freezing and precip rates will be light.
Lows Sunday night will be in the upper to mid 30s. Highs on
Monday will be noticeably cooler than Sunday in the mid 40s.

Another cold front will be sent in by passing low pressure to
our north late Monday night into early Tuesday. The main
moisture axis will be to the east so only slight chances for
light precip exist with its passage. Lows Monday night will be
in the mid-30s at the coast and NYC to the mid/upper-20s in
Orange county, given the earlier passage of the cold front
there.

The Tuesday into Tuesday night timeframe we`ll see much colder
temperatures, drier weather, breezy conditions and mainly clear
skies. The departing low will leave us in a stronger pressure
gradient with high pressure building in from the northwest on
Tuesday with peak gusts in the afternoon 30-35 mph. Winds will
gradually weaken Tuesday night as the pressure gradient weakens
and high pressure takes more control.

A deep longwave trough will center itself over the area with much
colder 850 mb temps. With strong cold air advection in place,
expecting highs of mid-40s to upper-30s Tuesday to drop down to the
low-30s the low-20s Tuesday night. Most of the area should drop
below freezing Tuesday night. The only areas that have started
growing season by Tuesday night are NYC, Nassau, Hudson, and Essex
counties. Temperatures here are expected to be very close to
freezing, so its possible we could reach Freeze Warning criteria in
these areas if temperatures remain as forecasted. Frost, however,
looks less likely given dew points in the teens.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper longwave trough remains over the eastern United States
Wednesday through Saturday as a shortwave rotates through the
trough Thursday into Saturday, deepening the upper trough as the
pattern becomes nearly blocked. This results is a slow moving
frontal system developing over the central plains Wednesday and
tracking into the region by Thursday night, and moving slowly
through into the upcoming weekend. With the slow moving system,
and increasing instability and precipitable water values around
1 inch, scattered thunderstorms are possible along with periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall. However, there is too much
uncertainty with the timing and have not yet included in the
forecast. Used the deterministic NBM parameters for the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front will become nearly stationary across the area
terminals today. A wave of low pressure will then track along
the nearly stationary front tonight.

IFR ceilings will slowly improve to MVFR in the next few hours,
then to VFR by afternoon. Light rain develops this evening,
with conditions lowering to MVFR late tonight. Low confidence on
the timing of improving conditions this morning, and with the
lowering conditions tonight.

A light N to NE flow will become NW/N and increase this
morning. Gusts 15-18 kt are possible around midday into early
afternoon, however, the gusts may be more occasional. The flow
lightens a little this evening and tonight, becoming N/NE.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories through the day.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR-IFR with showers into the afternoon. Wet snow or
sleet could mix in at KSWF early in the morning. Improvement to
VFR late Monday afternoon. A slight chance of rain showers
Monday night with MVFR, snow may mix in at KSWF.

Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of rain showers in the AM east of NYC
metro terminals. W-NW wind gusts 20-30 kt, diminishing at night.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA conditions continue through much of tonight on the ocean
with seas 5-6 ft. Seas likely subside below 5 ft west Moriches
Inlet late tonight, but may persist close to 5 ft east of there
into Monday. Winds on Monday should remain below SCA levels. NW
winds increase Monday night into Tuesday behind a cold front
passage increasing winds to 25-30 kt on all waters for Tuesday.
These winds should slowly weaken Tuesday night. Ocean seas will
build Monday night and remain elevated through Tuesday night.

Small craft seas and gusts are possible on the ocean waters early
Wednesday morning with gusty northwest winds behind a cold frontal
passage, with winds and seas subsiding as high pressure builds over
the waters during Wednesday. Winds and seas on the ocean waters will
then remain below advisory levels through Friday. The non ocean
waters will be below advisory levels Wednesday through Friday.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$