077
FXUS61 KOKX 081433
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong cold front gets east of the region today and will be
followed by high pressure building in slowly to the south
through Wednesday. The high moves offshore of the mid Atlantic
coast Wednesday night. Several waves of low pressure impact us
Thursday through Sunday. High pressure briefly settles in Sunday
night into Monday before another possible frontal system
impacts the area Monday night through Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The cold frontal boundary has cleared far eastern portions of
the CWA. Winds increase into this afternoon as the pressure
gradient increases. Expect mainly clear skies just in the wake
of the boundary with more clouds at around 5 kft for later in
the afternoon with cold pool drawing closer and some sfc
heating.
A deep upper trough with strong shortwave energy passes to the
north late this afternoon into this evening, accompanied by a
deepening low that tracks through update New York and across
northern New England, and into the Canadian Maritimes. Behind
the cold front a strong and gusty west to northwest wind and
strong cold advection will keep high temperatures in the 40s,
about 10 degrees below normal. For the winds and gusts used a
blend of the previous forecast and the NBM 90th percentile.
Winds and gusts remain below wind advisory criteria. However,
during the mid to late afternoon, with the deepest mixing, the
strongest winds and gusts are likely, and a few sustained winds
and gusts may briefly reach advisory levels. With weakening
cold advection, a weakening pressure gradient, and loss of
heating will allow for winds and gusts to rather quickly
diminish this evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold airmass will be over the region tonight with sub-
freezing temperatures throughout the area, with temperatures
ranging in the 20s, 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Wind chill
values will range from around 10 inland to 15 along the coast,
and around 20 in New York City. With the cold airmass and the
growing season having started April 1 for the NY/NJ metro area
a freezing warning has been issued for late tonight into early
Wednesday morning. Did not mention any frost as winds do stay up
and dew point depressions will be around 20 degrees.
Below normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Wednesday
night as high pressure builds to the south, and then moves off
the Mid Atlantic coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Thursday, a longwave upper-level trough begins to build over
the Great Lakes. This sends a weak surface low and associated
mid-level shortwave into the northeast which provides us with
scattered showers late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Thursday night into the week the longwave trough over the Great
Lakes amplifies very sharply over the eastern US into the
southern Gulf states. Within this longwave trough, several
shortwaves will spin through that may kick off several areas of
low pressure at the surface and impact us into the weekend.
Right now, 00Z guidance mainly has 2 low pressure systems
developing from this that could impact us.
On Thursday night, a surface low will move over the Mid-
Atlantic states. There, it will be guided north up the Atlantic
coast by the highly amplified upper-level trough and into our
area Friday into Saturday. This will lead to a period of wet and
active weather Friday into Saturday. While timing discrepancies
still exist, the latest guidance has really honed into a period
of when most of the rain will fall. This rainfall will be
enhanced by a surge of moisture from the tropics that has been
picked up by the highly amplified trough and sent our way up the
Atlantic coast. The 00Z LREF-TLE (a model blend of 00Z GEFS,
00Z GEPS, and time-lagged 12Z ENS) has really honed in on a
period of most of the rain occurring Friday evening into Friday
night. This is the period most of the ensembles agree on.
Because of this, have gone with 70-85% POPs for Friday Night.
The LREF shows a 45-60% of 1" of rainfall in 24 hours and a
5-10% of 2" in 24 hours. Friday has also been highlighted by WPC
for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall.
As this low exits on Friday, another low will develop and move
up the Atlantic coast, towards our area Saturday night into
Sunday. Here, the latest guidance varies more in track. While
all guidance agrees a second low will arrive, many of the 00Z
guidance shows the low too far offshore to bring another likely
chance of rainfall. Have gone with chance to slight chance for
POPs in this timeframe.
The trough exits east on Sunday night as a ridge moves in
Sunday night into Monday, bringing high pressure back to the
area at the surface. This period will likely remain mostly dry.
Some 00Z guidance indicate another surface low and associated
upper level trough in Canada could bring a cold front with
another chance for possible precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday night, but there is too much uncertainty this far out to
be sure.
Temperatures will remain around seasonal Thursday through the
weekend, gradually warming a degree or two each day. Went with
the NBM for temperatures on Monday given uncertainty in the
outcome which shows highs may surge into the mid/upper-60s. This
is still very subject to change, however.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves further east this morning as high pressure
settles in through Wednesday.
VFR at most terminals, however some eastern terminals remain
MVFR/IFR. Any sub-VFR terminals should become VFR by 16z. VFR is
then expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
WNW wind continue to increase and will generally prevail around
22-28 kt with gusts 32-37 kt from late morning into the early
evening. Peak gusts could be upwards of 40 kt. Winds diminish
into the late evening and tonight, maintaining a WNW direction,
perhaps closer to NW tonight. We lose the gusts somewhere around
9-12Z tomorrow with sustained winds around 10 kt at this time,
give or take a few kts.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts may be off by an hour or two.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR possible late with a chance of showers.
Friday: IFR possible with showers likely. E-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt
possible.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers. E-SE wind gusts
15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The gale warning remains in effect for all the waters today into
early this evening, continuing on the ocean waters until late
evening. Low pressure passes well to the north today, and sends
a strong cold front across the waters this morning and will be
followed by strong and gusty northwest winds. Once gales end a
SCA will likely be needed on the non ocean waters into late
tonight, and on the ocean waters into Wednesday morning. Once
SCA conditions end winds and seas will remain below advisory
levels through Wednesday night as high pressure over the waters
moves offshore. SCA conditions are possible, mainly on the
ocean, Thu night through Sat with a slow moving low pressure
system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Thursday.
The LREF shows a 45-60% of 1" of rainfall in 24 hours and a
5-10% of 2" in 24 hours Friday night. Friday has also been
highlighted by WPC for a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall.
Timing discrepancies still exist, but some periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall are possible Friday evening into Friday night.
With several rounds of rain expected, its possible we could see
minor impacts, but major impacts are not expected at this time
given much of the rainfall will be spaced out over several days.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BC/BR
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET