297
FXUS61 KOKX 081929
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
329 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds and settles nearby for mid week before
moving offshore into Thursday. A broad area of low pressure
will impact the area for the end of the week into the weekend.
A transitory high pressure ridge may build in on Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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There will be wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range for much of the
evening, but any peak gusts will have ended. An unseasonably cold
night in store as an anomalously cold air mass for April settles
over the region. 1000-500 mb thickness values are progged to get
down to around 520 dm. Near record cold is a distinct possibility at
a few of our climate sites (see climate section). A NW wind will
make it feel a good 10 degrees colder much of the time, although the
strongest wind gusts diminish this evening. Winds overall diminish
more gradually during the second half of the night, and likely not
much until just before sunrise and mainly across NW interior zones.
With the winds staying up temperatures won`t drop lower than the
middle and upper 20s in most locations, but that is still a
significant freeze. Thus a freeze warning remains in effect where
the growing season has begun (NE NJ and NYC metro) into Nassau
County. Other zones nearby do not begin their growing season (climo
based) until the llth. Expect widespread 20s for lows, to around 30
for portions of NYC. Wind chills will bottom out mainly in the
teens, so a hard freeze indeed under clear skies with high pressure
continuing to build.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Quite a cold start to the morning but with lighter winds with high
pressure settling to the SW and S through the day. With synoptic
scale sinking motion firmly in place skies should be mainly sunny
with BUFKIT forecast soundings indicating much of the column being
dry, with just a hint of moderate RH in a shallow layer in the mid
levels. With a lighter west wind look for temperatures to be a touch
milder, but still below normal for this time of year. Went just a
touch above guidance as far as temperatures go with no sign of a
mesoscale sea breeze, until perhaps very late in the day and still
enough of a westerly synoptic flow for the most part.
For Wednesday evening the high will be just above overhead, and thus
the winds should go calm in many places. Thus, in the non urban
locations look for some degree of radiational cooling, at least
early in the night. However, there is uncertainty regarding how
quickly mid level clouds work in with high pressure beginning to
build offshore late. Much of the modeling has a significant amount
of cloud cover moving in at the mid levels. Thus, have increased
cloud cover some for Wednesday night. Minimum temperatures will be
primarily in the 30s, and around 40 for the metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A strong jet currently blasting into the Pacific NW will carve out a
trof over the East Coast for the end of the week, producing
extensive cloud cover and periods of rain. The models are in good
agreement with the overall pattern, and a blend via the NBM has
generally been followed.
Increasing clouds on Thu with highs around 50. Some lgt rain or a
few shwrs possible, mainly nwrn zones, with the onset of waa.
Chances for lgt rain again Thu ngt and Fri, but flow from high pres
over the N Atlc will limit somewhat 0-3kft moisture. A better
organized sfc low will likely produce solid rain for Fri ngt.
Although the timing may ultimately shift with the event still
several periods away, high confidence that the batch of rain will
come thru at some point based on the pattern and model consistency
over the last several days. Right now, again that window looks to be
Fri ngt. More chances for rain on Sat with the upr trof still
producing deep sly flow across the region. Moisture likely limited
with the mid lvls drying a bit, but extensive clouds along with at
least lgt rain and/or dz with this setup. The upr low is progged to
reach the cwa on Sun per the 12Z GFS, with the cold pool aloft and
some dpva, would lean more towards isold-sct shwrs. However, the 12Z
ECMWF has the whole sys a bit further S, and retrogrades another sfc
low closer to the region producing more of a stratiform rain,
particularly ern zones. So, stuck with the NBM pops, and kept pcpn
as stratiform rain for now until confidence increases one way or the
other. If the GFS verifies, there could be at least some breaks of
sunshine on Sun. Better chances for sun on Mon as an h5 ridge builds
in quickly. It is a quick move however, so increasing high clouds
could be expected aft a few hours of sun. Exact timing uncertain
this far out. The next upr low on the map is progged to track across
ON and QC on Tue, allowing a thermal ridge to build into the cwa
with highs in the 70s many areas. Based on the llvl flow indicated
by the GFS, the fcst numbers could be a little too cool for all
areas as this is prime warm wind direction. Too far out though to
make changes to the NBM at this point. Low pops for a few shwrs,
particularly late in the day with peak heating and falling heights
producing a trigger.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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high pressure builds into the region through the TAF period.
VFR through the TAF period.
WNW wind 20-25kt with gusts 30-35kt through early evening. Peak
gusts could be upwards of 40 kt. Winds diminish late this
evening and tonight, maintaining a WNW direction. Gusts may
diminish for a few hours early Wednesday morning, however gust
to around 20kt are expected Wednesday morning/early afternoon
(around 16z-18z).
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of gusts may be off by an hour or two.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday afternoon: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR possible late with a chance of showers.
Friday: IFR possible with showers likely. E-SE wind gusts 15-20 kt
possible.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. Chance of showers. E-SE wind gusts
15-20 kt possible.
Sunday: VFR. Low end chance of an MVFR shower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gales give way to small craft conditions across the waters tonight.
The WNW flow will continue to gradually diminish into the day
Wednesday with high pressure settling just south of the waters as
sub advisory conditions return. Ocean seas will continue to subside
into Wednesday night.
Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Thu, then SCA cond likely Fri into
Sat with low pres tracking across the region. Mrgnl seas on the
ocean Sun, then winds and seas likely blw sca lvls on Mon attm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through Thursday.
Periods of rain are likely for the end of the week into the weekend.
Only minor hydrologic impacts, if any, are expected attm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
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The following are record temperatures for Wednesday, April 9th.
Currently the forecast reflects that records will be approached at
some of our climate sites with respect to the minimum temperatures.
Record Minimum Temperatures for Wednesday, April 9th
----------------------------------------------------
Central Park........25 (1977)
LaGuardia...........26 (1977)
Kennedy.............26 (1977)
Islip...............26 (2018,1982,1977)
Newark..............26 (1977)
Bridgeport..........24 (1977)-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
NYZ072>075-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-340-
345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-338.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JE
CLIMATE...JE