390
FXUS61 KOKX 101131
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
731 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today gives way to an approaching storm tonight. The
center of this low pressure system slowly moves through the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday passes to our south and east this weekend.
The low to the east then shifts away from the area on Sunday as
high pressure builds in for Monday. Another frontal system
moves through the area Monday night and into Tuesday. High
pressure then gradually builds back in through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered south of Nova Scotia drifts east today.
Cloudy, but probably dry through the daytime hours as the sub-cloud
layer will fairly dry. Can`t rule out a light afternoon shower over
the western half of the forecast area. Low levels then moisten with
a continuing onshore flow tonight. Weak isentropic lift ahead of a
weakening warm front and lift from a mid-level shortwave combined
with the moisture bring the likelihood of light rainfall for most of
the area by the end of the night. Thermal profiles however look cold
enough across the northern fringe for a mix of rain and snow. Since
precip will be light and temps remain above freezing, accumulations
would likely be nothing more than a light coating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Global models are all in good agreement with closing off an
upper low over the Mid Atlantic states on Friday, then lifting
it slowly north and east through the weekend. However, there are
still some differences with the positioning of the surface low. The
general idea is that the low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and
slowly heads NE with its center passing well to our south and east
Saturday through Saturday night.
Rain will be likely for most of the area by day`s end Friday, but no
impacts with this as it will mostly likely remain light. Better lift
and somewhat deeper moisture arrive Friday night into Saturday
morning with a low level jet and the left exit region of a jet
streak shifting through. Rain will be more moderate in intensity
during this period. Highest elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley
may even see some sleet mixed in during this period with cooling
aloft. PWATs continue to be modest, and convection is not
anticipated, so chances of any extended period of heavy rain are
low. NBM chances of greater than an inch of rain even in a 6-hour
period are minimal, so given current flash flood guidance, excessive
rainfall is not expected and any flooding will most likely be
limited to minor. WPC has removed the marginal risk for excessive
rainfall over our area after collaboration. Rain will still be
likely Saturday afternoon, but lighter in intensity. Rain chances
then gradually lower as Saturday night progresses. Winds still not a
concern, but breezy conditions still anticipated for coastal areas
Friday night through Saturday. Daytime temperatures for Friday and
Saturday will be below normal with the clouds and rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface low pressure east of the area on Sunday will gradually move
northeast into the Canadian Maritimes as the overhead trough swings
east with it. Depending on the exact placement of the center of the
low and the extent of moisture in the column, a few residual showers
may be possible on Sunday, with the highest chance of shower
activity being for the eastern half of the CWA.
As the low pushes east into Monday, mid-level ridging builds in
overhead with a surface high pressure system to the south building
in as well. This will make for generally dry conditions on Monday,
though any clear skies in the morning will begin to become cloud
covered once again toward evening with the approach of the next
frontal system. Another large trough swings in from the Great Lakes
region with the associated surface low pressure system passing by
well to the north. THe cold front associated with this low pressure
system will move through the area Monday night and into Tuesday
bringing a low chance of rain showers, mainly for the northern
portions of the area.
General troughiness will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday as
the large low pressure occludes north of the area. While some pieces
of energy swing by, much of the area should remain mostly dry,
though some isolated showers during the afternoon Tuesday and
Wednesday can`t be ruled out with the trough positioned overhead.
High pressure then builds in through the end of the week.
Temperatures on Sunday will be around of slightly below average with
highs in the middle to possibly upper 50s. Temperatures will
gradually warm Monday and into Tuesday ahead of the next frontal
system with temperatures in the 60s Monday and upper 60s to near 70
for the NYC metro on Tuesday. Wednesday will cool down once again
with the trough overhead with highs only in the low to middle
50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the area this morning shifts offshore today
before a frontal system impacts the area tonight and into Friday.
VFR expected through today. MVFR and eventually IFR moves in this
evening after 00Z, but especially toward 06Z Friday. Mostly dry
conditions expected through 22Z. SHRA then expected to develop,
but coverage at this time remains uncertain. SHRA expected to
become more widespread after 06Z Friday with conditions
lowering to IFR. A mix with -SN is also possible tonight at
KSWF. SHRA continues into Friday with IFR conditions expected.
Light and variable or a light SW flow through this morning. Winds
then pick up to near 10kt out of the S/SE during the day. Winds
slowly back to the E after 00Z Friday and increase overnight.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments are expected through 22z today. Amendments are
possible this evening into Friday morning with timing of SHRA and
changing flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: MVFR/IFR with -SHRA. SE winds about 10-15kt.
Friday: MVFR with periods of IFR. Rain. E flow 10-20kt.
Saturday: MVFR or lower. Chance of light rain. NE winds 15-20 kt
possible.
Sunday: MVFR possible with winds becoming NW.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conds expected on all waters through tonight. A
strengthening easterly flow will bring SCA conditions to the ocean
waters Friday into Saturday with gusts up to 30 kt and seas building
to 6 to 9 ft on the ocean. Also can`t rule out a stray gust or two
east of Moriches Inlet late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Conditions look more marginal for the non-ocean waters, but a better
chance for SCA will be during Friday night into Saturday. Since this
would be a 4th period start, too early for SCA headlines here. As
for the ocean, high enough confidence of SCA conds starting 3rd
period, so have issued an advisory for Friday. The advisory will
likely need to be extended in time for a few more periods thereafter
as seas will take some time to subside.
SCA conditions will still persist on the ocean on Sunday with
wave heights 5-7 feet expected. Some occasional 25 kt gusts will
be possible on the waters early Sunday but should diminish into
the afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions should then prevail for all
waters on Monday with high pressure overhead.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall from tonight through Saturday evening expected to average
from 1 to 2 inches. These amounts should limit any flooding to the
minor nuisance variety, and the timing for the best chances of this
would be late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Following this, no hydrologic concerns for Sunday through the
middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW