662
FXUS61 KOKX 101546
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1146 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure today will give way to an approaching storm
system tonight. The center of this system will slowly move
through the Mid Atlantic on Friday. pass to the south and east
on Saturday, then shift away from the area on Sunday as high
pressure builds in for Monday. Another frontal system will move
through Monday night into Tuesday, followed by high pressure
from Wednesday into Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure just off the coast will drift east today. Skies
will be cloudy, but probably dry through the daytime hours as
the sub-cloud layer will fairly dry. CAM`s have a handle on
precip over ern PA and do bring a 20-30 PoP to far western
areas by late this afternoon.
Low levels continue to moisten with a continuing onshore flow
tonight. Weak isentropic lift ahead of a weakening warm front
and lift from a mid level shortwave combined with the moisture
bring the likelihood of light rainfall especially to southern CT
and parts of the lower Hudson Valley tonight. Thermal profiles
look cold enough across the northern fringe for a mix of rain
and snow. Since precip will be light and wet bulb temps above
freezing, accumulations would likely be nothing more than a
light coating.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Global models are all in good agreement with closing off an
upper low over the Mid Atlantic states on Friday, then lifting
it slowly north and east through the weekend. However, there
are still some differences with the positioning of the surface
low. The general idea is that the low emerges off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast and slowly heads NE with its center passing well
to our south and east Saturday through Saturday night.
Rain will be likely for most of the area by day`s end Friday,
but no impacts with this as it will mostly likely remain
light. Better lift and somewhat deeper moisture arrive Friday
night into Saturday morning with a low level jet and the left
exit region of a jet streak shifting through. Rain will be more
moderate in intensity during this period. Highest elevations in
the Lower Hudson Valley may even see some sleet mixed in during
this period with cooling aloft. PWATs continue to be modest, and
convection is not anticipated, so chances of any extended
period of heavy rain are low. NBM chances of greater than an
inch of rain even in a 6-hour period are minimal, so given
current flash flood guidance, excessive rainfall is not expected
and any flooding will most likely be limited to minor. WPC has
removed the marginal risk for excessive rainfall over our area
after collaboration. Rain will still be likely Saturday
afternoon, but lighter in intensity. Rain chances then gradually
lower as Saturday night progresses. Winds still not a concern,
but breezy conditions still anticipated for coastal areas Friday
night through Saturday. Daytime temperatures for Friday and
Saturday will be below normal with the clouds and rain.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface low pressure east of the area on Sunday will gradually
move northeast into the Canadian Maritimes as the overhead
trough swings east with it. Depending on the exact placement of
the center of the low and the extent of moisture in the column,
a few residual showers may be possible on Sunday, with the
highest chance of shower activity being for the eastern half of
the CWA.
As the low pushes east into Monday, mid-level ridging builds in
overhead with a surface high pressure system to the south
building in as well. This will make for generally dry conditions
on Monday, though any clear skies in the morning will begin to
become cloud covered once again toward evening with the approach
of the next frontal system. Another large trough swings in from
the Great Lakes region with the associated surface low pressure
system passing by well to the north. THe cold front associated
with this low pressure system will move through the area Monday
night and into Tuesday bringing a low chance of rain showers,
mainly for the northern portions of the area.
General troughiness will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday
as the large low pressure occludes north of the area. While
some pieces of energy swing by, much of the area should remain
mostly dry, though some isolated showers during the afternoon
Tuesday and Wednesday can`t be ruled out with the trough
positioned overhead. High pressure then builds in through the
end of the week.
Temperatures on Sunday will be around of slightly below average
with highs in the middle to possibly upper 50s. Temperatures
will gradually warm Monday and into Tuesday ahead of the next
frontal system with temperatures in the 60s Monday and upper 60s
to near 70 for the NYC metro on Tuesday. Wednesday will cool
down once again with the trough overhead with highs only in the
low to middle 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure shifts offshore today before a frontal system
impacts the area tonight and into Friday.
VFR expected through today. MVFR and eventually IFR moves in this
evening after 00Z, but especially toward 06Z Friday. Mostly dry
conditions expected through 22Z. SHRA then expected to develop,
but coverage at this time remains uncertain. SHRA expected to
become more widespread after 06Z Friday with conditions
lowering to IFR. A mix with -SN is also possible tonight at
KSWF. SHRA continues into Friday with IFR conditions expected.
Winds near 10kt out of the S/SE during the day. Winds slowly
back to the E after 00Z Friday and increase overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments are expected through 22z today. Amendments are
possible this evening into Friday morning with timing of SHRA and
changing flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: MVFR/IFR with -SHRA. SE winds about 10-15kt.
Friday: MVFR with periods of IFR. Rain. E flow 10-20kt.
Saturday: MVFR or lower. Chance of light rain. NE winds 15-20 kt
possible.
Sunday: MVFR possible with winds becoming NW.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA in effect for the ocean for daytime Fri as a strengthening E
flow brings gusts up to 30 kt and seas building to 6-9 ft on
the ocean from Fri-Sat. Cond look more marginal for the non-
ocean waters, with the better chance for SCA cond there Fri
night- Sat, so too early for SCA headlines here. Hazardous
ocean seas will likely last into the weekend, with some ocnl
25-kt gusts possible there early Sunday as well.
Sub-SCA conditions should then prevail for all waters on Monday
with high pressure overhead.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Rainfall from tonight through Saturday evening expected to
average from 1-2 inches. Amounts and duration should limit any
impact to the minor nuisance variety, with the best chances of
this from late Fri night into Sat morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$