223
FXUS61 KOKX 102022
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
422 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure off the coast will give way to a weakening low
approaching from the west tonight. Another low developing over
the Mid Atlantic region on Friday will pass south and east of
Long Island on Saturday. The low will slowly drift farther out
to sea on Sunday, with weak high pressure building in through
Monday. A frontal system will approach from the west Monday
night, with a cold frontal passage expected late Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. Another cold front will move through
Tuesday night. High pressure will remain centered to the west
thereafter through next Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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TEWR radar showing sprinkles approaching the NYC metro area attm
from the SW. This area should expand in coverage as it moves NE,
with chance PoP for the NYC metro area and likely/cat PoP this
evening mainly NE of NYC. Once this area passes by NE NJ and the
metro area may remain fairly dry for the rest of the night.

Temps inland still look marginal in terms of some light wintry
precip, with a rain/snow mix possible and coating of
accumulation possible, and as much as an inch in parts of wrn
Orange County where temps will be colder.

Low temps tonight will be mostly in the mid/upper 30s, with
some lower 30s well inland NW of NYC.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As the low develops over the Mid Atlantic region, chances for
rain will increase through the day on Fri. Best chances for
rain still look to be from Fri night into early Sat morning as
the low passes to the SE, and once again temps inland may be
marginal and allow for a rain/snow mix and some light
accumulation. A persistent NW flow gusting to 25 mph should
develop Fri night and continue into Sat, then back N Sat night
as the low then starts to pull out into the Atlantic.

It will remain cool with highs only in the 40s, and lows mostly
35-40.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Lingering showers for eastern areas expected for Sunday as the
coastal low is slow to move away from the area with an omega block
over much of the CONUS, with a building ridge over the mid-West.
With more in the way of clouds than sun and northerly flow,
temperatures will be seasonably cool, with highs in the 50s for much
of the area. Eastern areas may stay in the upper 40s for highs
thanks to rain and cloud cover.

Deep layered ridging sets up as weak high pressure builds in at the
surface and the upper level ridge moves toward the region on Monday.
Expect dry conditions and generally seasonably warm temperatures,
with highs in the lower to middle 60s away from the coast, and upper
50s to around 60 along the coast.

The next chance for light showers comes Monday night as a warm front
approaches. The looks to become warm sectored Monday night, with the
associated cold front moving through early Tuesday morning. Lows
Monday night will be warm with the southerly flow set up over the
area. Lows in the middle 40s to around 50 are expected. Highs will
be similar to Monday.

Showers taper off Tuesday with the passage of the cold front and
weak high pressure building in thereafter. A secondary cold front
moves through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but there
isn`t much moisture associated with this feature, and it looks to
push through dry.

With high pressure building in and high pressure remaining to the
west of the region through next Thursday, an return to more normal
temperature for this time of year is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure shifts offshore this afternoon before a frontal
system impacts the area tonight and into Friday.

VFR conditions expected through late this afternoon. MVFR and
eventually IFR moves in this evening after 00Z, but especially
toward 06Z Friday. SHRA expected to develop and become more
widespread after 06Z Friday with conditions lowering to IFR. A mix
with -SN is also possible tonight. SHRA continues into the day on
Friday with IFR conditions expected.

S/SE winds around 10kt through this afternoon and evening with
occasional gusts up to 20kt. Winds slowly back to the E after
00Z Friday and increase overnight. Gusts pick back up on Friday
to around 20 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible this evening into Friday morning with
timing of SHRA and changing flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: MVFR with periods of IFR. Rain. E flow 10-20kt.

Saturday: MVFR or lower. Chance of light rain. NE winds 15-20 kt
possible.

Sunday: MVFR possible with winds becoming NW.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Gale watch issued for the ocean waters for Fri night-Sat as
persistent NE flow may gust as high as 35 kt, especially late
Fri night into Sat morning. Ocean seas during this time should
build to 6-9 ft.

SCA also issued for the non ocean waters Fri night into Sat with
NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt.

Before the gale watch, SCA remains in effect for the ocean
waters for Fri afternoon, as winds/seas start to surpass 25 kt
and 5 ft respectively.

SCA cond should continue on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays into
Sat night, then on the ocean waters on Sunday, with gusts 25-30
kt. Seas 4-6 ft are forecast for all ocean waters on Sunday
which are expected to slowly diminish through the day, but
remain above 5 ft through the day.

Thereafter, SCA conditions are not expected until possibly
Tuesday when winds may approach 25 kt, especially western
coastal zones with the approach and passage of a cold front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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QPF from tonight through Saturday night has trended downward,
averaging around an inch for most places. Long duration of
this rainfall should preclude any impacts.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks in
parts of the NY Harbor area with the high tide cycle Fri night
and Sat night due to persistent onshore flow and tidal piling.
This may occur on the back bays of Nassau Fri night as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG