575
FXUS61 KOKX 102351
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast will give way to a weakening low
approaching from the west tonight. Another low developing over
the Mid Atlantic region on Friday will pass south and east of
Long Island on Saturday. The low will slowly drift farther out
to sea on Sunday, with weak high pressure building in through
Monday. A frontal system will approach from the west Monday
night, with a cold frontal passage expected late Monday night
into early Tuesday morning. Another cold front will move through
Tuesday night. High pressure will remain centered to the west
thereafter through next Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is generally on track. Some mPING reports show snow
mixing in at times well inland. Adjusted POPs for later tonight
based on current radar and mesoscale forecasts.
Temps inland still look marginal in terms of some light wintry
precip, with a rain/snow mix possible and coating of
accumulation possible, and as much as an inch in parts of wrn
Orange County where temps will be colder.
Low temps tonight will be mostly in the mid/upper 30s, with
some lower 30s well inland NW of NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the low develops over the Mid Atlantic region, chances for
rain will increase through the day on Fri. Best chances for
rain still look to be from Fri night into early Sat morning as
the low passes to the SE, and once again temps inland may be
marginal and allow for a rain/snow mix and some light
accumulation. A persistent NW flow gusting to 25 mph should
develop Fri night and continue into Sat, then back N Sat night
as the low then starts to pull out into the Atlantic.
It will remain cool with highs only in the 40s, and lows mostly
35-40.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering showers for eastern areas expected for Sunday as the
coastal low is slow to move away from the area with an omega block
over much of the CONUS, with a building ridge over the mid-West.
With more in the way of clouds than sun and northerly flow,
temperatures will be seasonably cool, with highs in the 50s for much
of the area. Eastern areas may stay in the upper 40s for highs
thanks to rain and cloud cover.
Deep layered ridging sets up as weak high pressure builds in at the
surface and the upper level ridge moves toward the region on Monday.
Expect dry conditions and generally seasonably warm temperatures,
with highs in the lower to middle 60s away from the coast, and upper
50s to around 60 along the coast.
The next chance for light showers comes Monday night as a warm front
approaches. The looks to become warm sectored Monday night, with the
associated cold front moving through early Tuesday morning. Lows
Monday night will be warm with the southerly flow set up over the
area. Lows in the middle 40s to around 50 are expected. Highs will
be similar to Monday.
Showers taper off Tuesday with the passage of the cold front and
weak high pressure building in thereafter. A secondary cold front
moves through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but there
isn`t much moisture associated with this feature, and it looks to
push through dry.
With high pressure building in and high pressure remaining to the
west of the region through next Thursday, an return to more normal
temperature for this time of year is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weakening frontal system impacts the area tonight and into Friday.
A coastal low begins to impact the area Friday night.
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Have improved
conditions for the first half of tonight (until 5-6z) for most
terminals, then MVFR moves overnight towards 06-09z, with
pockets of IFR towards 09-12z. On and off shower activity tonight
and into the first half of Friday. Conditions briefly improve to MVFR
towards late morning and afternoon before the next area of rain
arrives towards 0z Saturday.
SE winds become primarily E tonight with gusts ending. Winds slowly
increase and gusts return by late Friday morning at most terminals
to around 20 kt. Winds become more ENE late in the day and towards
Friday evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments are possible overnight and into Friday timing of -RA and
changing flight categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: MVFR in rain. ENE flow 10-20kt, gusts to 25 kt possible
at coast / city terminals.
Saturday: MVFR or lower. Rain likely. NE winds 10-20 kt gusts to 25 kt
possible.
Sunday: VFR with pockets of MVFR with N winds.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, W-NW winds.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale watch issued for the ocean waters for Fri night-Sat as
persistent NE flow may gust as high as 35 kt, especially late
Fri night into Sat morning. Ocean seas during this time should
build to 6-9 ft.
SCA also issued for the non ocean waters Fri night into Sat with
NE winds gusting to 25-30 kt.
Before the gale watch, SCA remains in effect for the ocean
waters for Fri afternoon, as winds/seas start to surpass 25 kt
and 5 ft respectively.
SCA cond should continue on the ocean and the ern Sound/bays into
Sat night, then on the ocean waters on Sunday, with gusts 25-30
kt. Seas 4-6 ft are forecast for all ocean waters on Sunday
which are expected to slowly diminish through the day, but
remain above 5 ft through the day.
Thereafter, SCA conditions are not expected until possibly
Tuesday when winds may approach 25 kt, especially western
coastal zones with the approach and passage of a cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from tonight through Saturday night has trended downward,
averaging around an inch for most places. Long duration of
this rainfall should preclude any impacts.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks in
parts of the NY Harbor area with the high tide cycle Fri night
and Sat night due to persistent onshore flow and tidal piling.
This may occur on the back bays of Nassau Fri night as well.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-
353-355.
Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG/JP
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...