535
FXUS61 KOKX 141901
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
301 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure nosing in from the south weakens and moves east
this afternoon. A frontal boundary moves through Tuesday
morning, with a secondary front passing through Tuesday night.
High pressure starts to gradually build in starting Wednesday.
High pressure passes to the south Thursday and pushes offshore
Thursday night. Another frontal system approaches the region
Friday and affects from Friday night through Saturday night.
High pressure returns for Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track with just a slight adjustment in temps
and sky cover through the remainder of the day. The broken
line of showers and sprinkles has continued to weaken as it
progresses slowly east as it runs into ridging. Much of the
activity is not reaching the ground with virga reports at some
locations along with a few sprinkles from around the city on
west for the most part as cloud bases remain fairly high, at
around 8 to 10 kft. Other than a few sprinkles it remains
predominantly dry and milder than past days. As far as temps,
it will feel more like spring with temperatures back up in the
lower and middle 60s (a few degrees warmer on average than what
is normal for mid April) and light winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Heights start lowering tonight as an upper level low approaches. An
associated parent surface low will be tracking through southern
Canada, with a cold front draped down into the eastern US. As this
front approaches it looks to become occluded to our north with the
potential for the triple point to pass through the area. This is
evident in gradients in model moisture fields. This frontal system
will spark severe weather in the Ohio Valley today, but by the time
this activity gets to our area it will likely be just rain showers.
This is due to the time of day and lack of any significant
instability. There is however very little elevated CAPE, so a rumble
of thunder can not be completely ruled out.
Heights continue lowering as the mid and upper level trough axis
gets closer on Tuesday. With cooling aloft, instability increases
through the day. This set up usually leads to isolated to scattered
shower activity and the CAMs are agreeing with that. Looking at
model soundings, steep lapse rates and plenty of dry air below
the cloud layer can be seen. This suggests that any stronger
showers could bring down gusty winds and potentially produce graupel.
A rumble of thunder can also not be ruled out, but with low
confidence have continued to leave it out of the forecast for
now. Outside of gusty winds from showers, synoptically the
sustained winds and gusts increase through the day on Tuesday.
Expecting gusts up to 30 go 35 mph.
High pressure starts to gradually build in on Wednesday. With the
colder airmass over the region, highs look to only reach the low
50s. Gusty winds are expected through the afternoon before they
start to decrease.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions continue for Thursday as an upper level east of the
area continues to slowly moves east while a building ridge over the
Great Lakes region and southern Canada moves toward the area. At the
surface, high pressure to the west of the region slides southwest
and pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Thursday night which allows a
warm front to lift north Friday night. This will be be the next
chance for precipitation. However, only light amounts of rain for
Friday night are expected at this time. The associated cold front is
expected to move through on Saturday night and high pressure builds
in behind it for Sunday.
With a building ridge moving into the region Thursday and a warm
front lifting north Friday night, a warming trend through the period
is expected. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s on Thursday will rise
into the 60s and 70s by Saturday for most areas. Cooler conditions
are expected along coastal areas. Cold air advection after the
passage of the cold front will bring temperatures back down to more
seasonable levels for Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A frontal system will impact the area late tonight into
Tuesday.
VFR conditions are expected through the early morning hours
Tuesday. However, an approaching warm front is expected to
bring IFR conditions into the area from about 07Z to 09Z.
Confidence of IFR at KSWF is lower as the area will remain north
of the warm front. Showers are forecast to impact the terminals
from 04Z to 09Z. Instability is weak and a thunderstorm seems
unlikely at this time. Conditions improve to VFR for all but
KGON in the 12Z-14Z timeframe. It may take until early afternoon
at KGON.
S/SW winds will be around 10 kt this afternoon with local
seabreeze enhancements likely. KEWR and KTEB may shift more to
the SE late this afternoon and early this evening. Winds for a
time overnight may go light and variable, especially across the
NYC terminals and KISP as the warm front will be in close
proximity. WSW winds gradually ramp up in the morning to
10-15kt with G20kt, then 20-25kt G30-35kt in the afternoon
following a cold frontal passage.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shifts this afternoon into early this evening may
vary by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon: VFR. W winds G25-35kt developing in the
afternoon and continuing into the night.
Wednesday: VFR. WNW winds G25-30kt.
Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.
Friday: VFR. Chance of showers at night. S winds G15-20kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers. SW winds G15-20kt,
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. Winds ramp
up Tuesday afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for
all waters starting at 2PM Tuesday and going through 10AM Wednesday
(and will likely need to be extended through Wednesday). Wind gusts
are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt on all waters. There may be a
brief lull for a few hours around 11PM Tuesday night before winds
ramp back up. Additionally, isolated 35 to 40 kt gusts can not
be ruled out Tuesday afternoon, specifically under any
convective showers that could mix down higher gusts.
As previously mentioned, the SCA will likely need to be extended
through Wednesday. Gusts finally lower Wednesday night, with the
potential for some 5 ft seas lingering in the eastern ocean zone
through the night.
Waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Friday night
with high pressure in control. Winds will remain below 25 kt through
Friday, but may approach 25 kt by late Friday night on the ocean
waters as a frontal system approaches from the west.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT