953
FXUS61 KOKX 161722
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
122 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure gradually departs to the northeast, a series of weak
surface troughs will move through the area through Thursday. High
pressure passes overhead Thursday night and then moves offshore on
Friday. A warm front moves through Friday night. A cold front
approaches Saturday and moves through Saturday night.
High pressure returns for Sunday. Another frontal system may impact
the area Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track through early this evening.
Cyclonic flow aloft continues with the mid and upper level low
moving into southeastern Canada and troughing down the east
coast. With surface high pressure building in behind the
departing low, the pressure gradient will remain tight over the
area this afternoon. Sustained winds will top out at 20 to 25
mph. Gusts will largely range from 25 to 35 mph. An isolated
peak gust up to around 40 mph can`t be ruled out. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy with a stratocu deck around 5 kft.
Highs top out in the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s closer
to the coast.
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The pressure gradient slackens a bit tonight, but winds stay up.
Given the lack of ideal radiational cooling conditions the NBM was
used for lows, 30s to low 40s.
A nicer day is expected on Thursday. Sunny skies and a lightening
west wind in a pre green up environment should result in over
performing temperatures. To capture this, went with a blend of
warmer guidance, NBM 90th, and bias corrected NAM and GFS. This
gave widespread low 60s. The air will also have a dry feel to
it as 60 degree temps with dewpoints in the 20s results in RH
around 20 to 30 percent. Heading into Thursday night, the
pressure gradient really weakens, skies remain clear and
moisture remains low. Went straight CONSMOS for now to capture
the normal cold spots during good radiational cooling nights.
High pressure shifts offshore early Friday and a return flow sets
up. If this happens earlier this will impact how low temperatures
can get Thursday night. Low pressure approaches from the west and
the pressure gradient tightens which will increase the S/SW winds.
The actual warm front looks to move through later on Friday and may
bring some showers to the area. With the strengthening southerly
flow, Long Island and coastal CT likely don`t get as warm as
northeast NJ or the Lower Hudson Valley, upper 60s vs mid 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The pressure gradient will be slow to completely relax, thus
expect breezy conditions to remain in place. Although there will
likely be more of a relaxation at times, especially away from
the coast Wednesday night. The current thinking has the winds
staying up enough that frost formation should be avoided along
with any freeze. But if winds subside more than expected perhaps
portions of Orange, Putnam, Northwestern Passaic, and portions
of Northern Fairfield counties could get to freezing. Otherwise
lows should primarily be in the upper half of the 30s to around
40 under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.
For Thursday it will not be as windy as the previous few days,
but a breeze out of the WNW should linger through the early
afternoon. High pressure will continue to gradually build in
with the winds gradually subsiding for the afternoon into the
evening. There will be plenty of sunshine due to synoptic scale
sinking motion and some subsidence provided by a WNW wind. With
air mass modification expect temperatures to recover into the
upper half of the 50s and lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure over southern Quebec pushes northeast on Saturday,
allowing an approaching cold front to move through Saturday night.
High pressure builds in behind the cold front for the rest of
Sunday, moving overhead Sunday night as a high amplitude upper level
ridge approaches from the west. The ridge axis of this upper level
ridge moves overhead late Monday, pushing offshore Monday night.
With surface high pressure offshore, this allows a warm front to
lift north of the area Monday night, quickly followed by the
associated cold front. Weak high pressure builds in for Tuesday and
Tuesday night. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty this
far out as the GFS does not bring the first cold front through on
Saturday, keeping the area warm sectored through Sunday night, and
bringing the cold front through Monday night, and a secondary cold
front through on Tuesday.
With high pressure offshore and the area warm sectored on Saturday,
a southwesterly flow sets up, bringing in a warm air mass. Highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 are forecast away from the coast; across
northeast NJ, the lower Hudson Valley, and southwest CT. Cooler
conditions are expected along coastal areas. Cold air advection
after the passage of the cold front will bring cooler, but still
above normal temperatures for this time of year for Sunday, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. However, if the GFS model
solution for Sunday is correct and the area remains warm sectored,
then temperatures on Sunday will be comparable to those on Saturday.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday return to near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west through Thursday.
VFR through the TAF period.
WNW/W winds continue through the forecast period. Gusts generally 25
to 30 kt this afternoon, with a few peak gusts around 35 kt at a few
terminals. By early this evening the winds may become more NW and
begin to diminish some. The metro terminals are expected to hold
onto to gusts through the night, but closer to 15 to 20 kt. However,
these may end up being more occasional at times rather than
prevailing. Outlying terminals are expected to lose gusts altogether
for at least a portion of the night, more likely after 05z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon: VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.
Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late afternoon and night,
mainly for the NW interior. S winds G15-20kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers, mainly NW interior. SW
winds G20-25kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Monday: Sub VFR possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
The Gale Warning on the ocean has been replaced with an SCA that
runs through tonight. The SCA remains elsewhere through the
first half of tonight. Sub SCA conditions expected Thursday
through Friday morning. 25 kt gusts and increasing seas return
Friday afternoon with the approach of a frontal system.
Waves on Saturday start off 4 to 8 ft on the ocean on a
southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Waves slowly
diminish from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, with all ocean
zones below 5 ft by Sunday night.
Winds are expected to gust 25 to 30 kt kt Saturday on the ocean
waters as a frontal system approaches from the west. Winds on the
ocean fall below 25 kt for Saturday night into Sunday. There is a
chance that non-ocean waters reach SCA gusts on
Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT