074
FXUS61 KOKX 200805
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
405 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front pushes well south of the area tonight. High
pressure builds in tonight and gradually slides east on Monday.
A weak frontal system moves through through Monday night into
Tuesday. Weak high pressure builds into the region Wednesday and
Thursday. Another frontal system is expected to affect the area
Friday into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Key Messages:
* Much cooler but still above normal temps today (Highs in the
lower to upper 60s).
* Elevated threat for wildfire spread across the Tri-State today.
SPS in effect for southern CT and southeastern NY for today.
* Patchy frosty for portions of E LI and coastal central and
southeastern CT tonight, where growing season has started.
Vigorous northern stream closed low slides east from Quebec and
through the Canadian Maritimes today into tonight, while southern
upper ridging builds back towards the region tonight. At the
surface, a cold front pushes well south of the region this AM,
with weak Canadian high pressure building in Sunday Night and
sliding east on Monday.
Overall gusty NW winds 15-20G25-30mph, drier and much cooler conds
expected today. Temps will still run several degrees above normal
with unseasonably mild start to the day and deep mixing and plenty
of sunshine in a gradual caa regime. Continued close to NBM
50th percentile for temps based on the above, which has a
better representation of warmer temps along the coast in NW flow
than the NBM deterministic. Temps in the lower to mid 60s
interior and mid to upper 60s for city/coast. NBM deterministic
max T are generally running in the lowest 25th quartile, which
appears low based on synoptic regime.
Canadian high pressure noses in tonight with potential for good
radiational cooling conds for pine barrens of LI and interior Tri-
State with temps dropping into the lower to mid 30s and bringing
patchy frost conditions. Not enough frost coverage across
coastal areas where growing season has started to issue frost
headline. Elsewhere, temps dropping into the 40s for the
city/coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Key Messages:
* Below seasonable temperatures on Monday, giving way to well above
seasonable temps on Tuesday.
* Light rainfall event Monday Night.
A vigorous closed upper low over the SW US lifts through the central
plains today and into the upper Great Lakes on Monday, and then
opens up and slides east through Ontario/Quebec on
Tuesday/Tuesday Night. At the surface, a resultant low pressure
system takes a similar track, sliding NE through the Great
Lakes on Monday and then across southern Ontario/Quebec into
Northern New England Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Locally, its
associated warm front approaches Monday Night, followed by
occluded/cold front crossing late Monday Night into Tue AM.
A strengthening return SE flow develops Monday as high pressure
slides offshore. Maritime flow off mid 40 degree waters, and
developing/ne advecting stratus under a strong low-level inversion,
will likely result in temps running a few degrees below seasonable
across the region on Monday (mid 50s along southern and eastern
coasts to around 60 interior). NBM deterministic, generally in
the lowest 25th quartile, looks good based on above.
LLJ will strengthen ahead of approaching frontal system, with warm
front approaching and entering the region Monday Night. Modest theta-
e advection and lift over this boundary will bring potential for
scattered showers Monday Night. Limited forcing and moisture,
and lack of instability, will keep QPF light. Warm front likely
lifts north of most of the area late Monday Night, before weak
occluded/cold front crosses Tues AM.
Drying conditions Tuesday in wake of cold front. Sct cu
development likely Tuesday aft with shortwave moving through to
the north and secondary cold front approaching. Otherwise deep
mixing and still mild 850mb temps(7-10C), will likely result in
unseasonably warm temps areawide (mid to upper 70s) on gusty
westerly flow. Temps could challenge the daily record high for
KISP. Southern and eastern coastal areas could be well into the
70s (warmer than current forecast) as well if westerly flow
materializes as modeled. Will side towards 50-75th percentile
NBM based on downslope flow regime. Once again, NBM
deterministic max T are generally running in the lowest 25th
quartile, which appears low based on above.
Weak cold front sags south of the region Tuesday Night. With mixed
low-levels and little change in airmass, continued mild
conditions likely with lows in the mid to upper 40s for much of
the area, lower 50s NYC/NJ metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the previous forecast/NBM.
Dry weather is expected Wednesday through Thursday night with mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies under weak high pressure.
The high moves east on Friday, with another shortwave/low pressure
system approaching for late Friday into Saturday. Mainly looking at
just chance POPs (30-35 percent) for now. Drier weather returns for
Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds into the area today.
VFR.
NW-NW winds 8-12kt to start. Winds will increase this morning and
will generally be 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt in the morning. Winds
gradually weaken in the afternoon with gusts likely ending by
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
An occasional higher gust will be possible.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday: VFR, then MVFR or lower possible at night with a chance of
showers.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers early. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt
possible.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA gusts expected mainly on nearshore waters today, while SCA ocean
seas (due to residual southerly swell) slowly subside through early
afternoon.
Sub SCA conditions expected on all water this evening, continuing
thru Monday afternoon as high pressure moves across the waters.
Marginal SCA conditions possible on the ocean waters Monday Night
into Tuesday morning with frontal passage, but latest trend has been
slightly weaker with winds and waves.
Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels Tuesday afternoon
through Friday with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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Dry conditions continue, with only spotty wetting rain across
Orange and Putnam counties yesterday, elsewhere little if any
rainfall.
Elevated wildfire spread threat exists today with highs in the 60s,
northwest winds of 15-20G25-30 mph and min RH values in the lower to
mid 20 percent range.
SPS for elevated threat of fire spread has been coordinated for
southeastern NY and CT with state land and fire management
partners and neighboring offices. Coordination on fuel
conditions and possible fire weather headlines will be conducted
with NJ state land and fire management partners later this
morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC/NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV