015
FXUS61 KOKX 221420
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1020 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly pushes across today. High pressure gradually
builds tonight into Wednesday and remains in control through
Thursday night. A frontal system will move across the area late
Friday into Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday into
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Clouds are gradually diminishing as a weak cold front approaches
the area from the NW. This clearing out should promote
temperatures rises into the middle to upper 70s for much of the
area. Otherwise, forecast remains on track with only minor
adjustments to account for the latest observations and trends
into the morning and early afternoon.
Other than some low clouds/patchy fog this morning along a cold
front, expect more in the way of sunshine for the late morning
and afternoon. It will be a fantastic spring day with above
normal temperatures. The question for today`s forecast is how
much to go above guidance in terms of temperatures? NWP global
guidance has 5 kft temperatures hovering around 10 C with a W to
WSW flow throughout the column. Steep lapse rates will lead to
excellent mixing, especially from the sfc to 5-6 kft. A cold
front moves into the area and sort of washes out to a degree.
Therefore not expecting much if any wind direction shift. A W to
WSW flow should be maintained with neutral advection. This
should lead to warmer than normal temperatures, even for coastal
sections. This should lead to widespread middle and upper 70s,
with only perhaps the south fork of LI with some localized 60s
right at the waterfront. A few spots in NE NJ could very well
get to 80 for max temperatures.
For tonight under clear skies look for a fairly mild night. There
really won`t be that much of an airmass change with what`s left of a
cold front slowly sliding through. Under mostly clear skies with
high pressure slowly beginning it build from the west look for light
winds and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Lows
should range from the middle 40s in far NW interior sections, to the
middle 50s across the metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is expected to settle nearby for mid week. This should
lead to large scale subsidence overall. The upper level jet is
progged to remain over Northern New England and into the Saint
Lawrence River Valley up to the north. With the area on the southern
side of the polar jet temperatures should continue to run above
normal temperatures wise, especially during the day Wednesday. A
deep layer W to NW flow should preclude the formation of strong sea
breeze development. Although, by late in the afternoon on Wednesday
there may be some localized sea breeze development for a few coastal
locations. Maximum temperatures once again on Wednesday should get
well into the 70s in most places, with perhaps a few 60s across some
eastern coastal communities.
High pressure settles over the area Wednesday night with mostly
clear skies and light winds. Temperatures are expected to bottom out
in the 40s in the outlying areas, with some lower and middle 50s
across the metro.
High pressure slowly gets further east on Thursday. A return flow of
shorts will attempt to set up. With the synoptic flow expected to be
fairly light, look for a hybrid sea breeze to develop with a
southerly flow off the cooler ocean during the day. By late in the
afternoon a wide spread in temperatures should be anticipated, with
mainly 60s and a few middle and upper 50s across coastal and eastern
coastal sections, with 70s across western and interior locations.
Temperatures are expected to be considerably cooler across eastern
coastal sections for the late day and early evening with a wind off
the colder ocean.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Global models continue to fluctuate with the timing of the frontal
system for late Friday into Saturday. The 00Z GFS is the fastest of
the globals, by about 12h. The GEFs supports a slower solution like
the model consenus. The timing seems to hinge on the complex
interaction of southern branch PAC NW energy and multiple pieces of
northern branch energy dropping across central Canada toward the end
of this week. Plan to stay close to the NBM during this time.
High pressure offshore at the start of this period will continue to
retreat out into the Atlantic while the aforementioned frontal
system brings a chance of showers into the area Friday afternoon
with the most likely timeframe after midnight Friday through the day
on Saturday. Marginal instability could result in isolated
thunderstorm north and west of the NYC metro Saturday afternoon.
However, onshore flow and weak lapse rates should limit coverage.
High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday into Monday.
Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, warmest Thursday
night through Friday night (5 to 10 degrees). A return closer to
normal is expected Sunday into Monday behind the frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak warm front lifts across the area this morning followed by
a cold front late this afternoon and evening.
Conditions will continue improving to VFR through 16z taking
longest at KGON. VFR then prevails for the remainder of the TAF
period.
Winds will become SW through 16z and continue to veer to the
W-WSW 10-12 kt early afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 kt
possible. Winds will likely remain SW or even SSW at KJFK, KBDR,
KGON, and KISP into the afternoon before the cold front passes
through late. This will switch the winds towards the W. Winds
will then become NW-NNW 5-10kt this evening, mainly after 00Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds could become S at KJFK this afternoon with speeds around
10 kt.
Onset of WSW-SW gusts at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB late
morning/early afternoon may be delayed by 1-2 hours. Gusts
could also be a few kt higher at times once they start. The end
time of gusts may also be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR during the day. A chance of MVFR and showers, at
night.
Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
There could be a few gusts to around 20 kt with a few marginal small
craft gusts on some of the eastern and south shore bays of LI today,
otherwise sub advisory conditions will prevail through Thursday
night. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
Friday in a weak pressure regime. The next chance for SCA conditions
will be Friday night into Saturday with a frontal system moving
across the waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW