191
FXUS61 KOKX 221924
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
324 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front pushes through tonight followed by high pressure
building in on Wednesday. High pressure begins to move offshore late
Thursday into early Friday. A frontal system will move across the
area late Friday into Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday
into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A weak cold front will continue to gradually make its way through
the area through this evening, though skies will remain mostly sunny
to partly cloudy. A light NW flow will persist through tonight,
though the light flow may end up becoming light and variable or calm
at some locations. THis may result in some outlying spots to cool a
bit more than coastal or more urban locations. Lows tonight will
generally be in the upper 40s to low 50s closer to the NYC metro.
Outlying locations may cool into the middle to possibly lower
40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure will build into the area into Wednesday
with mid-level flow remaining fairly zonal. This will result in
a slightly cooler airmass than Tuesday, though it should be much
clearer, especially along the coast. High temperatures will
rise into the low 70s for much of the interior. NE NJ and the
NYc metro may rise into the middle 70s with Long Island and the
immediate coast topping out in the middle to upper 60s.
High pressure overhead will result in fairly light flow which will
allow for seabreezes to dominate the flow for the coast. The
relatively cold ocean will prevent coastal areas from rising too
high in temperature and is the reason highs will be lower in these
locations.
High pressure continues to dominate into Wednesday night with light
flow and clear skies. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in
the middle 40s to lower 50s with the warmer spots being in and
around the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The 12Z global models haven`t changed much from their prior 00Z
runs. They continue to fluctuate with the timing of the frontal
system for late Friday into Saturday. The 12Z GFS is still the
fastest of the globals, by about 12h. The timing seems to hinge on
the complex interaction of southern branch PAC NW energy and
multiple pieces of northern branch energy dropping across central
Canada toward the end of this week. Remained close to the NBM during
this time.
High pressure offshore at the start of this period will retreat out
into the Atlantic while the aforementioned frontal system brings a
chance of showers into the area Friday afternoon with the most
likely timeframe after midnight Friday through the day on Saturday.
Marginal instability could result in isolated thunderstorms north
and west of the NYC metro Saturday afternoon. Onshore flow and weak
lapse rates should limit coverage, but kept slight chance for
thunder for much of the area given the uncertainty in timing of the
front. High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday into
Monday.
Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, warmest Thursday
night through Friday night (5 to 10 degrees). A return closer to
normal is expected Sunday into Monday following the frontal
system.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front passes moves offshore this evening. high pressure then
builds in through Wednesday.
VFR through the TAF period.
S-SSW sea breezes will continue at south coastal terminals (KJFK,
KISP, KBDR, and KGON through 22z. Winds elsewhere will continue
becoming W and WNW through this evening, 10-15 kt. Gusts to around
20 kt remain possible at terminals away from the south coasts. Winds
this evening at all terminals will be WNW-NW with speeds settling to
around 10 kt before diminishing overnight.
The flow may become light N overnight before becoming NW Wednesday
morning, then backing towards the W-WSW in the afternoon. Sea
breezes are likely at coastal terminals in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of WSW-W wind shift at JFK may be off by 1-2 hours.
End time of gusts at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB may be off by 1-2 hours.
Timing adjustments to Wednesday afternoon sea breeze likely.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Afternoon-Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR during the day. A chance of MVFR and showers, at night.
Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated
thunderstorm possible Saturday. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Sunday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Light flow with high pressure building overhead will result in sub-
SCA conditions through at least Friday. The next chance for SCA
conditions will be Friday night into Saturday night with a frontal
system moving across the waters. However, these conditions would
only be marginal, should they occur. They will subside by Sunday
morning, remaining below SCA criteria into the beginning of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW