589
FXUS61 KOKX 222321
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in slowly from the west tonight, and will
be over the region Wednesday into Thursday. The high begins to
move offshore late Thursday into early Friday. A frontal system
will move across the area late Friday into Saturday, followed by
high pressure Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures and dewpoints were adjusted to better align with
the current observations and trends with the front moving
through. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with this
evening update.
A weak cold front was moving east of the region early this
evening, with high pressure beginning to build to the west.
A light NW to N flow will persist through tonight, though the
light flow may end up becoming light and variable or calm at
some locations. This may result in some outlying spots to cool
a bit more than coastal or more urban locations. Lows tonight
will generally be in the upper 40s to low 50s closer to the NYC
metro. Outlying locations may cool into the middle to possibly
lower 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will build into the area into Wednesday
with mid-level flow remaining fairly zonal. This will result in
a slightly cooler airmass than Tuesday, though it should be much
clearer, especially along the coast. High temperatures will
rise into the low 70s for much of the interior. NE NJ and the
NYc metro may rise into the middle 70s with Long Island and the
immediate coast topping out in the middle to upper 60s.
High pressure overhead will result in fairly light flow which will
allow for seabreezes to dominate the flow for the coast. The
relatively cold ocean will prevent coastal areas from rising too
high in temperature and is the reason highs will be lower in these
locations.
High pressure continues to dominate into Wednesday night with light
flow and clear skies. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in
the middle 40s to lower 50s with the warmer spots being in and
around the NYC metro.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z global models haven`t changed much from their prior 00Z
runs. They continue to fluctuate with the timing of the frontal
system for late Friday into Saturday. The 12Z GFS is still the
fastest of the globals, by about 12h. The timing seems to hinge
on the complex interaction of southern branch PAC NW energy and
multiple pieces of northern branch energy dropping across
central Canada toward the end of this week. Remained close to
the NBM during this time.
High pressure offshore at the start of this period will retreat out
into the Atlantic while the aforementioned frontal system brings a
chance of showers into the area Friday afternoon with the most
likely timeframe after midnight Friday through the day on Saturday.
Marginal instability could result in isolated thunderstorms north
and west of the NYC metro Saturday afternoon. Onshore flow and weak
lapse rates should limit coverage, but kept slight chance for
thunder for much of the area given the uncertainty in timing of the
front. High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday into
Monday.
Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, warmest Thursday
night through Friday night (5 to 10 degrees). A return closer to
normal is expected Sunday into Monday following the frontal
system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west tonight, and will be over
the region Wednesday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Westerly flow 10 kt or less early this evening veers to NW then
N late evening into the overnight. The flow then backs to the
west late morning to around midday at the coastal terminals, and
into the mid afternoon inland. Sea breezes are likely to develop
at the coastal terminals during the afternoon, and may be around
an hour earlier than forecast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A sea breeze is likely Wednesday afternoon at KJFK, and late
afternoon at KLGA, and may be about an hour earlier at KJFK. At
this time the sea breeze is not likely to reach KEWR and KTEB
with the flow becoming westerly during the afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR.
Friday: VFR during the day.
Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated
thunderstorm possible Saturday. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Sunday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Light flow with high pressure building overhead will result in sub-
SCA conditions through at least Friday. The next chance for SCA
conditions will be Friday night into Saturday night with a frontal
system moving across the waters. However, these conditions would
only be marginal, should they occur. They will subside by Sunday
morning, remaining below SCA criteria into the beginning of next
week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW