582
FXUS61 KOKX 231822
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
222 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles nearby today into tonight, and remains in
control through Thursday night. A frontal system will move
across the area Friday night into Saturday, followed by high
pressure Sunday into Monday. High pressure will then give way
to a frontal system approaching from the mid section of the
country on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For this midday update, dewpoints were adjusted to account for
current observations being slightly lower than forecast. Winds
were also adjusted to account for the latest guidance timing on
today`s sea breeze. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
High pressure is expected to gradually draw closer today and
settle over the region tonight. This should lead to large scale
subsidence overall. The upper level jet is progged to remain
over Northern New England and into the Saint Lawrence River
Valley up to the north. With the area on the southern side of
the polar jet temperatures should continue to run above normal
temperatures wise. Overall the synoptic flow will be NW based,
but will be weaker than yesterday. Thus, by late this afternoon
the expectation is for localized sea breeze development for most
coastal locations. There remains some uncertainty to the extent
of sea breeze advancement to the N and NW for the late
afternoon and early evening. Maximum temperatures should get
well into the 70s in most places. There will be 60s across
coastal, especially eastern coastal communities. Went with NBM
90th percentile as far as max temperature forecast which is a
few degrees above the deterministic and above a MAV / MET blend
in most places.
High pressure settles over the area tonight with mostly clear skies
and light winds. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 40s
in the outlying areas, with some lower and middle 50s across the
metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure slowly gets further east on Thursday. A return flow of
sorts attempts to get going. With the synoptic flow expected to be
fairly light, look for a hybrid sea breeze to develop with a
southerly flow off the cooler ocean, especially for the afternoon.
By late in the afternoon a wide spread in temperatures should be
anticipated, with mainly 60s and a few middle and upper 50s across
coastal and eastern coastal sections, with 70s across western and
interior locations. Temperatures are expected to be considerably
cooler across eastern coastal sections for the late day and early
evening with a wind off the colder ocean.
Subtle height rises are indicated by global NWP through Thursday
night as the upper jet remains north of the region. Temperatures at
850 mb will remain around 10 C. However, with high pressure at the
sfc over the Western Atlantic the low level winds will be southerly
and this will bring in noticeably cooler air off the ocean. Winds
will be light and more out of the SW and thus temperatures should
remain quite mild Thursday night. However, more of an easterly
component to the southerly flow likely kicks in during Friday. This
will drive down max temperatures from the previous couple of days,
especially further east. Temperatures to the west remain in question
where 70s to perhaps up to 80 are a possibility for western and some
interior locations, otherwise mainly 60s closer to the coast and to
the east. If the sfc winds go more SE then temperatures even inland
would be cooler than currently indicated. At this point there
appears to be enough mid and upper level ridging taking place into
Friday to keep the region dry, although a warm front back to the
southwest may start to draw closer late in the day. This should lead
to an increase in mid level clouds through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some better agreement in the global models and their ensembles for
the frontal system that impacts the area Friday night into Saturday.
Still though, the GFS is the faster of the operational members, but
the gap is closing. Still staying close to the NBM as a consensus
approach remains the best option. The focus still seems to hinge on
the interaction of multiple pieces of northern branch energy
dropping across central Canada toward the end of this week.
Expect the frontal system to bring showers into the area Friday
night, with the most likely timeframe after midnight Friday through
the first half of Saturday. Marginal instability could result in
isolated thunderstorm, however, onshore flow and weak lapse rates
should limit coverage. High pressure then builds in from the west
Sunday into Monday. The next frontal system approaches from the mid
section of the country on Tuesday.
Rainfall amounts at this time are likely to stay below an inch with
NBM probabilities about 20 to 30 percent for an inch or more. The
mean and median amounts are closer to half an inch.
Temperatures remain above normal into Saturday (5 to 10 degrees). A
return closer to normal is expected Sunday, with a gradual warmup
Monday into Tuesday ahead of the next system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west today and across the area
tonight.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period.
Northwesterly winds expected this afternoon, with seabreeze or
hybrid seabreeze impacting the coastal terminals this afternoon.
There is still some uncertainty with just how far inland the
seabreeze reaches timing due model differences in the depth and
strength of the westerly flow during the afternoon hours. Wind
will then become light and variable Wednesday night. Winds on
Thursday become more S-SE and remain 10kt or less.
The NYC/LI terminals may be impacted by smoke from the nearby
wildfires in NJ. This evening, the flow is expected to turn more
southerly, bringing the smoke plume into the airspace. Still
some uncertainty just how low any conditions get. For now, will
carry a tempo group for 5sm in haze.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Seabreeze timing could vary by 1-3 hours as there is some
uncertainty with the depth and strength of the westerly flow in
the afternoon hours. At this time, seabreezes are forecast to
make it into KJFK and KLGA. Seabreeze may impact EWR (22Z-23Z).
MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys possible in smoke/hz from wild fires
in NJ.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: VFR during the day.
Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated
thunderstorm possible Saturday. SW gusts 15-20 kt, becoming
W-NW in the afternoon/evening.
Sunday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure nearby sub advisory conditions will prevail
through Friday with ocean seas not much above 2 ft throughout. By
late Friday a southerly flow increases with gusts potentially
approaching 20 kt for some of the southern coastal waters.
The next chance for SCA conditions will be on the ocean waters
Friday night into Saturday night with a frontal system moving across
the waters. Winds and seas subside heading into Sunday morning,
remaining below SCA criteria into the beginning of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Thursday night for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/BR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW