403
FXUS61 KOKX 232211
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
611 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure tonight moves offshore Thursday, but remains in
control through Thursday night then exits early Friday. A
frontal system will move across the area late Friday into
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday into late Monday.
Another frontal system may impact the area by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains generally on track with only minor adjustments
to account for the most recent observations. There is a chance
that some smoke from southern NJ wildfires approaches the NYC
metro and Long Island this evening but not confident enough in
the progression of the smoke and intensity to include in the
grids at this time.
High pressure at the surface will be mainly centered over our
region, leading to very light flow under the weak pressure gradient.
Winds will become south synoptically tonight (instead of just with
the current sea breeze) as the center of the high will be just to
our east.
Heights will continue to climb aloft from mid and upper level
ridging. With ample subsidence, expecting clear skies to prevail
tonight.
Lows tonight will be near or just above climatological averages in
the mid-40s to low-50s (up to mid-50s in the NYC metro).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will gradually push offshore Thursday into
Thursday night. Heights aloft will also continue to rise through
this period.
High pressure remains mainly in control during the day and
early night, leading to skies remaining clear and dry
conditions prevailing, but cloud cover will begin to gradually
increase late Thursday night as a frontal system approaches the
region.
Temperatures will be above average on Thursday as the jet stream
remains north of the area and heights continue to rise aloft. Due to
light synoptic flow and warmer temperatures on land with much
cooler ocean and LI sound waters, expecting another sea breeze
on Thursday. Coastal areas will remain cooler than interior
areas because of this. Highs towards the coast will be in the
60s while the interior will reach the mid-70s to near 80.
Overnight Thursday, lows will be warmer under a more light
southwesterly flow in the mid/low-50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move offshore Friday with an increasing
SW flow over the area on the backside of the retreating high. This
SW flow will result in above normal temperatures with highs on
Friday in the upper 70s to near 80 for much of the interior areas.
Coastal areas will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s. Partly cloudy
skies in the morning will gradually become more cloud covered toward
evening as a frontal system approaches from the west. There is a
chance that low stratus develops for the coast toward Friday evening
with an onshore flow increasing low level moisture. Drizzle is
possible as well for these areas.
By Friday night, the center of the low pressure develops over the
Great Lakes region and begins to push northeast in response to a
digging mid-level trough. Given the ample amounts of low level
moisture with dew points climbing into the 50s under a S/SW flow,
rain showers become increasingly likely overnight and into Saturday
morning with the approach of the cold front from the west. Models
are in general agreement as to the timing and evolution of the cold
frontal passage but the precipitation associated with it is a bit
uncertain. Higher resolution models have the shower activity being
more scattered with isolated thunderstorms developing late Friday
night and into Saturday with global models having a more widespread
stratiform rain with possible embedded thunderstorms.
The cold front will slowly make its way through the area on Saturday
before finally moving through by evening. Rain showers will be
likely for much of the area Saturday with possible isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the
frontal passage. Given the shower activity and cloud cover, high
temperatures Saturday will be cooler than Friday with highs in the
middle 60s to low 70s. Total rainfall accumulations at this time are
expected to be 0.5 to 0.75 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible in any thunderstorms.
The cold front pushes through by Saturday evening with high pressure
building in the area from Sunday and into Monday. This will result
in dry but cooler conditions for Sunday with highs in the 60s. As
mid-level heights rise with a developing mid-level ridge on the back
side of the surface high pressure, temperatures should increase as
well through the middle of the week. Highs on Monday will be in the
upper 60s to middle 70s with Tuesday climbing to near 80 for the
western portions of the CWA away from the coast. Another frontal
system may approach the area from the west by Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west today and across the area
tonight.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period.
Northwesterly winds expected this afternoon, with seabreeze or
hybrid seabreeze impacting the coastal terminals this afternoon.
There is still some uncertainty with just how far inland the
seabreeze reaches timing due model differences in the depth and
strength of the westerly flow during the afternoon hours. Wind
will then become light and variable Wednesday night. Winds on
Thursday become more S-SE and remain 10kt or less.
The NYC/LI terminals may be impacted by smoke from the nearby
wildfires in NJ. This evening, the flow is expected to turn more
southerly, bringing the smoke plume into the airspace. Still
some uncertainty just how low any conditions get. For now, will
carry a tempo group for 5sm in haze.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Seabreezes are expected to impact all the NYC terminals this
evening.
MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys possible in smoke/hz from wild fires
in NJ.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: VFR during the day.
Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated
thunderstorm possible Saturday. SW gusts 15-20 kt, becoming
W-NW in the afternoon/evening.
Sunday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt possible.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub advisory conditions are expected Wed night through Thu night
under high pressure.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected Friday with an increasing S flow
resulting in SCA on the ocean by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 25
kt will be possible with wave heights 5-7 feet for the ocean on
Saturday. The Great South Bay, Eastern LIS, and the eastern bays may
also have SCA conditions with 25kt gusts. Conditions for the non-
ocean waters fall below SCA by Saturday night with wave heights
remaining above 5 feet on the ocean through at least Sunday morning.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through at least
Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
While WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on
Saturday, rainfall should come over a long enough period to not
cause any widespread hydrologic issues. Total accumulations of 0.5
to 0.75 inches expected with locally higher amounts possible in any
thunderstorms.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
Thursday night for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BR/MW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW