080
FXUS61 KOKX 241406
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1006 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves over the area today and offshore tonight
into Friday. A frontal system approaches Friday night and moves
across Saturday. High pressure follows Sunday into early next
week. Another frontal system may move across the area mid next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Temperatures and dewpoints were adjusted slightly with this
update. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
Double barrel high pressure over the region this morning gets
further east late this afternoon into tonight. A return flow of
sorts attempts to get going. With the synoptic flow expected to
be fairly light, look for a hybrid sea breeze to develop with a
southerly flow off the cooler ocean, especially for the
afternoon. By late in the afternoon a wide spread in
temperatures should be anticipated, with mainly 60s and a few
middle and upper 50s across coastal sections. Temperatures are
expected to be considerably cooler across eastern coastal
sections for the late day and early evening with a wind off the
colder ocean. Across western and interior locations 70s are
expected, with mainly middle and upper 70s for daytime maxes.
Subtle height rises (especially at the 700 mb level) are indicated
by global NWP through tonight and into Friday morning as the upper
jet remains north of the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will remain
around 10 C. With high pressure at the sfc over the Western Atlantic
the low level winds will be more out of the SW tonight. Overall the
winds will be light and temperatures should remain mild tonight with
mainly 50s, with some upper 40s for eastern most portions of the
area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Friday the synoptic flow increases some out of the south.
Temperatures further inland and west are expected to be noticeably
warmer as opposed to locations further east and closer to the
coast. The warmest locations will likely be in the upper 70s and
lower 80s, with cooler readings from NYC on east and along coastal
sections of CT and LI where 60s and lower 70s are likely. At this
point there appears to be enough mid and upper level ridging taking
place into Friday to keep the region dry. However a frontal system
off to the west begins to draw closer late in the day and into
Friday night. This should lead to an increase in mid level clouds
mainly during the afternoon hours. During Friday night clouds should
lower with mainly chance showers for much of the night, with PoPs
increasing late at night as pre-frontal forcing and ascent ahead of
the boundary begin to increase some. With cloud cover and a
southerly flow regime look for mild temperatures Friday night with
temperatures holding steady and perhaps even rising a few degrees
with mainly 50s to around 60 for the metro.
On Saturday the cold front will slowly make its way through eastern
portions of the area by evening as a progressive shortwave moves
north of the area. Rain showers will be likely for much of the
area Saturday with possible isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening hours ahead of the frontal passage. Cloud
cover preceding the cold front will put a limit on any sfc based
CAPE / convective chances and organization. Given the shower
activity and cloud cover, high temperatures will be cooler
overall than previous days with highs mainly ranging from the
middle 60s to lower 70s. Total rainfall accumulations at this
time are expected to on the order of around a half inch, and
perhaps up to 0.75 inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There has been little change to the forecast thinking Saturday night
through the middle of next week.
A cold front will continue pushing offshore Saturday evening.
The upper trough trails behind the front, but any lingering precip
east of the NYC metro in the evening should quickly end as the
forcing and deepest moisture move offshore. The upper trough will
move over the region early Sunday and then off the coast Sunday
night. High pressure will follow, but will remain over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday as low pressure lingers near the New
England coast associated due to the slower progression of the upper
trough. The high pressure will build over the the area Sunday night
into Monday along with ridging aloft. The upper ridge will likely
remain in place through Tuesday, but the surface high gradually
works its way offshore. The latest model consensus then takes the
next shortwave across the Great Lakes and up into southeast Canada
by mid next week. The associated frontal system may then move across
the area next Wednesday. Current precip probabilities are low due to
the best forcing remaining well to our north.
Temperatures on Sunday should return to seasonable levels in the
lower and middle 60s. A warming trend will then occur through
Tuesday as temperatures rebound into the upper 60s and lower 70s
Monday with upper 70s to around 80 on Tuesday away from the coast.
This trend may continue into next Wednesday, but will be dependent
on the timing of the aforementioned frontal system and exact wind
direction.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. High pressure remains over the area this morning, then
drifts offshore through tonight.
Light NE-E flow becomes SE and gradually increases through the rest
of this morning. Winds will continue veering to the SSE-S this
afternoon with speeds 10-13 kt. Winds slowly weaken this evening as
the direction becomes SW under 10 kt. Outlying terminals should see
light and variable winds overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
NE flow may linger 1-2 hours longer at KLGA into early
afternoon before shifting to the SE.
There is a low chance for HZ and a reduction in visibility due
to smoke from the wildfire in eastern NJ.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. S winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon and evening.
Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated
thunderstorm possible Saturday. S-SSW gusts 15-25 kt, becoming
W-NW in the afternoon/evening.
Sunday: VFR. N gusts 20-25 kt possible.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure nearby and getting east of the waters sub
advisory conditions will prevail through the day Friday with ocean
seas not much above 2 ft throughout. By late Friday and Friday
evening a southerly flow increases with gusts potentially
approaching 20 kt for some of the southern coastal waters. Small
craft conditions will become increasingly likely Friday night, at
least out on the ocean as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
an approaching frontal boundary. More widespread small craft
conditions are anticipated on Saturday with ocean seas climbing to 5
to 7 ft. SW winds will switch quickly to the NW from west to east
with the passage of a cold front by the late afternoon / early
evening Saturday.
Marginal SCA wind gusts on the ocean may continue Saturday evening,
but overall winds should end up below 25 kt late Saturday night into
Sunday. Ocean seas will remain 5-6 ft Saturday night before
subsiding below 5 ft Sunday morning. Conditions will then remain
below SCA levels into early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/BR
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS