847
FXUS61 KOKX 241952
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
352 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moves over the area today and offshore tonight into
Friday. A frontal system approaches Friday night and moves across
Saturday. One cold front moves southeast of Long Island Saturday
evening. A secondary cold front moves across early Sunday. High
pressure then builds in through early next week. High pressure
shifts well offshore towards the middle of next week with a
frontal system moving towards the local area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure continues to move offshore tonight. Mostly clear
skies remain with high pressure still in control. Light
southerly flow turns more southwesterly in response to the
exiting high pressure out to the east. With height rises and
increasing 850 mb temps overnight, expecting overnight lows to
stay mild. Lows drop into the mid-50s for most.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tomorrow, southerly flow continues. Temperatures will be warm yet
again with highs in the 70s to near 80, particularly inland, with
the cooler spots along the coasts.
A frontal system approaches on Friday, leading to increasing clouds
through the day. Friday night a warm front passes, increasing
showers across the CWA. Some timing discrepancies still exist with
the timing of the cold front, but expecting it to pass late in the
day or early evening Saturday. With strong lift and some hints of
instability in the available 12Z guidance, expecting a slight chance
for isolated thunderstorms with showers located along or just ahead
of the cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon and evening.
About 0.5-1.0" are expected Friday night through Saturday
evening. No major hydrologic issues are expected.
Warm temps overnight Friday are expected due to the cloud cover and
warm air advection from the passing warm front. Overnight lows will
be in the mid-50s to low-60s. Saturday will be cooler thanks to
rainfall and a nearing cold front. Highs then will be in the mid-60s
to low-70s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Strong upper level low approaches Saturday night and moves across
early Sunday. This slowly moves towards Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Upper level ridge then builds in across the
region for Sunday night through early next week. This will
eventually give way to quasi-zonal flow for mid to late week.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to be exiting southeast of
Long Island Saturday night. Increased POPs compared to previous
forecast as another trough or secondary cold front moves across
early Sunday. This will be accompanied by a steepening pressure
gradient as parent low deepens as it moves through Maine. Rain
showers linger Saturday night and then decrease late Saturday night
into early Sunday. NW winds will increase and become gusty with cold
air advection. Highest instability relatively speaking will be
shifting southeast of the region so left out mention of thunder
Saturday night after 8PM.
Steep pressure gradient remains through Sunday. With cold pool aloft
with upper level low moving across, some more rain showers will be
possible. Models indicate mainly dry conditions but manually
increased POPs to slight chance. Also went higher than model
forecasts with cloud coverage with cyclonic flow aloft. Used
relatively cooler Superblend for the daytime high temperatures,
which will be limited to upper 50s to lower 60s with the gusty winds
and abundance of clouds the first half of the day.
For next week, warming trend is evident in the forecast models with
the ridging developing across the area. Consistent model 850mb
temperature warming by the end of each day Monday into Tuesday.
Expect a sharp rising trend to daytime high temperatures each day.
Much of the region is in upper 60s to mid 70s for highs Monday and
well into the 70s to near 80 for Tuesday. Used specifically the NBM
50th percentile for high temperature forecast on Monday and Tuesday,
which were relatively warmer compared to NBM alone.
Uncertainty grows for mid to late week depending on the evolution of
an approaching frontal system. The ridging moves offshore and quasi-
zonal flow will help steer this frontal system towards the region.
The system may linger nearby towards latter portion of week. Chances
for showers and perhaps even an isolated thunderstorms are in the
forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Chances for rain showers
potentially continue into next Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR. High pressure remains just offshore through tonight.
SE-S winds 10-15 kt. Winds slowly weaken this evening as the
direction becomes SW under 10 kt. Outlying terminals should see
light and variable winds overnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
SE flow may linger about an hour longer than currently forecast at
KJFK before shifting South.
There is a low chance for HZ and a reduction in visibility due
to smoke from the wildfire in eastern NJ.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM: VFR. S winds G15-20 kt.
Late Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated
thunderstorm possible Saturday. S-SSW gusts 15-25 kt, becoming W-NW
late day/evening.
Sunday: VFR. NNW gusts 25-30 kt possible.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub advisory conditions expected through Friday night. Marginal
small craft advisory conditions are possible late Saturday with the
frontal passage, mainly for 25 kt gusts on ocean waters and seas 5-6
feet.
For Saturday night, SCA conditions mainly for ocean seas, mainly
near 5 to 6 ft, with otherwise mainly below SCA conditions. Then for
Sunday, expecting widespread SCA wind gusts for all waters. Ocean
seas trend down to 4 to 5 ft Sunday. SCA wind gusts diminish Sunday
evening with eventually all waters below SCA Sunday night. All
waters remain in the forecast below SCA Monday through Tuesday
before SCA conditions make their return Tuesday night, mainly for
the ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR