647
FXUS61 KOKX 252021
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system approaches this evening and impacts the region late tonight through Saturday evening. High pressure builds to the west during Sunday, and builds over the region Sunday night through Monday. The high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night which allows a warm front to approach and then lift north Tuesday night. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the northwest through Wednesday night, pushing off Thursday. This will allow another frontal system to approach and affect the area at the end of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure tracks well to the west tonight, through the eastern Great Lakes as a weak warm front approaches to the southwest. There is little forcing with the front, and guidance shows that the front may dissipate before moving into the region. Chances for showers increase late tonight as the low moves into upstate New York and shortwave energy rotates through the upper trough across the northeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As one area of energy moves out of the region early Saturday morning showers may become more scattered before increasing late morning into the afternoon as a cold front approaches and additional energy moves into the region. With increasing CAPE late morning and through the afternoon, across northeastern New Jersey, into the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and into Nassau county, and southwestern Connecticut, thunderstorms will be possible. Farther to the east the marine influence will be great enough to keep thunderstorms from tracking farther to the east. An isolated storm or tow is possible, however, not enough coverage and confidence to include in the forecast at this time. The flow is progressive and the upper trough and cold front moves through the northeast with showers ending by late Saturday night. A gusty northwest flow develops behind the cold front and blended in the 90th percentile of the NBM for both sustained winds and gusts late Saturday night and through Sunday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Cut off low and associated upper level trough push continue to move away from the area Sunday night as a building upper level ridge from the Great Lakes region approaches. At the surface, high pressure to the east builds into the region, pushing south of the area and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. Upper level ridge axis moves over the area Tuesday, with a warm front lifting north of the area Tuesday night, followed pretty quickly by the cold front Wednesday. The passage of the cold front looks moisture starved, lacks a strong upper level trough, and with the surface low passing well north and west of the region in southern Quebec, much of the forcing with this front will be well north of the area. Therefore, not looking at a lot of precipitation. In fact, while there might be some light rain showers Tuesday night in association with the warm front, the passage of the cold front may move through dry. High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Wednesday night as another upper ridge moves through the northeast Thursday night, which allows the next frontal system to approach for the end of next week. As for temperatures, they will be above normal and on the increase from Monday through Wednesday, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs will be in the 70s away from the coast, and 60s along the coast. Temperatures fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected region-wide, with slightly warmer readings expected for Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure remains offshore as a frontal system approaches tonight and into Saturday. VFR conditions through 00z Saturday. Conditions should then begin lowering to MVFR by 06z with IFR becoming likely early Saturday morning. There is a chance for LIFR conditions late tonight into early Saturday morning. Showers become widespread overnight into early Saturday. Improvement to MVFR is possible by 15z Saturday then to VFR after 18Z from west to east. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm is possible for much of the day. S-SE winds at around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt through this evening, especially away from the immediate coast. Gusts should end in the evening, but S-SSE sustained winds 10 to 13 kt likely continue overnight. Windy conditions return Saturday morning with gusts around 25 kts. LLWS possible late tonight/early Saturday morning east of the NYC metro terminals. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts at KEWR, KLGA, and KTEB may be occasional through late this afternoon/evening. Timing of lowering flight categories and SHRA tonight may be off by 1-3 hours. LIFR conditions possible early Saturday morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Saturday: IFR in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR late morning into the afternoon. Showers. Isolated thunderstorm possible, especially afternoon and evening. SW gusts 15-25 kt, becoming W-NW late day/evening. Sunday: VFR. NW gusts 25-30 kt possible. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt possible in the afternoon and evening. Wednesday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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With the approach of low pressure moving across the eastern Great Lakes region tonight into Saturday morning, and a warm front to the southwest, southerly winds will be increasing this evening, and ocean seas will be building. Have begun the ocean SCA a few hours earlier, 200 AM EDT, with the earlier increasing gusts and seas. Otherwise, the other advisories remain as previously posted. Southerly winds and gusts increase Saturday, and there is the potential of gusts approaching gale force east of Moriches Inlet for a few hours late Saturday morning into the afternoon, and near SCA levels on the central Long Island Sound. With the short period and low confidence will not post a gale of small craft for those zones. Winds and gusts will likely fall below advisory levels Saturday evening for several hours as the cold front moves through, however, ocean seas will likely remain elevated. Then SCA conditions develop on all the waters late Saturday night and through Sunday, and possibly into Sunday evening, behind a cold front, and advisories may be issued later. Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are possible over the ocean and south shore bays Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Waves build to 5 to 6 ft on the ocean waters during this time frame. Waves slowly diminish Tuesday night, falling below SCA criteria on Wednesday.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A special weather statement for potential wild fire spread remains in effect for NE NJ until 7 pm this evening as minimum RH levels were 30 to 35 percent this afternoon. Southerly winds also increase with gusts up to 20 mph. The risk of fire spread ends during the evening with as RH levels climb and a wetting rain develops later tonight.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ332. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ340- 345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...20 MARINE...JP/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JP/MET