647
FXUS61 KOKX 252021
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system approaches this evening and impacts the region
late tonight through Saturday evening. High pressure builds to
the west during Sunday, and builds over the region Sunday night
through Monday. The high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
Monday night which allows a warm front to approach and then lift
north Tuesday night. This will be followed by a cold frontal
passage Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the
northwest through Wednesday night, pushing off Thursday. This
will allow another frontal system to approach and affect the
area at the end of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure tracks well to the west tonight, through the
eastern Great Lakes as a weak warm front approaches to the
southwest. There is little forcing with the front, and guidance
shows that the front may dissipate before moving into the
region. Chances for showers increase late tonight as the low
moves into upstate New York and shortwave energy rotates through
the upper trough across the northeast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As one area of energy moves out of the region early Saturday
morning showers may become more scattered before increasing late
morning into the afternoon as a cold front approaches and
additional energy moves into the region. With increasing CAPE
late morning and through the afternoon, across northeastern New
Jersey, into the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and into Nassau
county, and southwestern Connecticut, thunderstorms will be
possible. Farther to the east the marine influence will be great
enough to keep thunderstorms from tracking farther to the east.
An isolated storm or tow is possible, however, not enough
coverage and confidence to include in the forecast at this time.
The flow is progressive and the upper trough and cold front
moves through the northeast with showers ending by late Saturday
night. A gusty northwest flow develops behind the cold front
and blended in the 90th percentile of the NBM for both sustained
winds and gusts late Saturday night and through Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Cut off low and associated upper level trough push continue to
move away from the area Sunday night as a building upper level
ridge from the Great Lakes region approaches. At the surface,
high pressure to the east builds into the region, pushing south
of the area and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night.
Upper level ridge axis moves over the area Tuesday, with a warm
front lifting north of the area Tuesday night, followed pretty
quickly by the cold front Wednesday. The passage of the cold front
looks moisture starved, lacks a strong upper level trough, and with
the surface low passing well north and west of the region in
southern Quebec, much of the forcing with this front will be well
north of the area. Therefore, not looking at a lot of precipitation.
In fact, while there might be some light rain showers Tuesday night
in association with the warm front, the passage of the cold front
may move through dry.
High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Wednesday night as
another upper ridge moves through the northeast Thursday night,
which allows the next frontal system to approach for the end of next
week.
As for temperatures, they will be above normal and on the increase
from Monday through Wednesday, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs
will be in the 70s away from the coast, and 60s along the coast.
Temperatures fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected
region-wide, with slightly warmer readings expected for Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure remains offshore as a frontal system approaches
tonight and into Saturday.
VFR conditions through 00z Saturday. Conditions should then
begin lowering to MVFR by 06z with IFR becoming likely early
Saturday morning. There is a chance for LIFR conditions late
tonight into early Saturday morning. Showers become widespread
overnight into early Saturday. Improvement to MVFR is possible by
15z Saturday then to VFR after 18Z from west to east. Scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm is possible for much of the
day.
S-SE winds at around 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt through this
evening, especially away from the immediate coast. Gusts should end
in the evening, but S-SSE sustained winds 10 to 13 kt likely
continue overnight. Windy conditions return Saturday morning with
gusts around 25 kts.
LLWS possible late tonight/early Saturday morning east of the
NYC metro terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts at KEWR, KLGA, and KTEB may be occasional through late this
afternoon/evening.
Timing of lowering flight categories and SHRA tonight may be
off by 1-3 hours. LIFR conditions possible early Saturday
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: IFR in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR late
morning into the afternoon. Showers. Isolated thunderstorm
possible, especially afternoon and evening. SW gusts 15-25 kt,
becoming W-NW late day/evening.
Sunday: VFR. NW gusts 25-30 kt possible.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt possible in the afternoon and
evening.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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With the approach of low pressure moving across the eastern
Great Lakes region tonight into Saturday morning, and a warm
front to the southwest, southerly winds will be increasing this
evening, and ocean seas will be building. Have begun the ocean
SCA a few hours earlier, 200 AM EDT, with the earlier
increasing gusts and seas. Otherwise, the other advisories
remain as previously posted. Southerly winds and gusts increase
Saturday, and there is the potential of gusts approaching gale
force east of Moriches Inlet for a few hours late Saturday
morning into the afternoon, and near SCA levels on the central
Long Island Sound. With the short period and low confidence will
not post a gale of small craft for those zones. Winds and gusts
will likely fall below advisory levels Saturday evening for
several hours as the cold front moves through, however, ocean
seas will likely remain elevated. Then SCA conditions develop on
all the waters late Saturday night and through Sunday, and
possibly into Sunday evening, behind a cold front, and
advisories may be issued later.
Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through
Tuesday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are possible over the ocean and
south shore bays Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a
cold front. Waves build to 5 to 6 ft on the ocean waters during this
time frame. Waves slowly diminish Tuesday night, falling below SCA
criteria on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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A special weather statement for potential wild fire spread
remains in effect for NE NJ until 7 pm this evening as minimum
RH levels were 30 to 35 percent this afternoon. Southerly winds
also increase with gusts up to 20 mph. The risk of fire spread
ends during the evening with as RH levels climb and a wetting
rain develops later tonight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ340-
345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JP/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET