616
FXUS61 KOKX 260624
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
224 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal system impacts the region through this evening. High pressure builds to the west during Sunday, and builds over the region Sunday night through Monday. The high pushes off the Mid- Atlantic Coast Monday night which allows a warm front to approach and then lift north Tuesday night. This will be followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday. High pressure then builds in from the northwest through Wednesday night, pushing off Thursday. This will allow another frontal system to approach and affect the area at the end of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Some low level dry air is limiting the rain reaching the ground despite radar reflectivity late this evening across western parts of the region. Still left out thunder for rest of tonight as mesoscale models seem to be too moist in the low levels and therefore there is more stability in the low level environment inhibiting convection. Minor changes with POPs for showers and some minor adjustments with temperatures as well as dewpoints to better match observed trends. Low pressure tracks well to the west tonight, through the eastern Great Lakes as a weak warm front approaches to the southwest. There is little forcing with the front, and guidance shows that the front may dissipate before moving into the region. Chances for showers increase late tonight as the low moves into upstate New York and shortwave energy rotates through the upper trough across the northeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As one area of energy moves out of the region early Saturday morning showers may become more scattered before increasing late morning into the afternoon as a cold front approaches and additional energy moves into the region. With increasing CAPE late morning and through the afternoon, across northeastern New Jersey, into the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and into Nassau county, and southwestern Connecticut, thunderstorms will be possible. Farther to the east the marine influence will be great enough to keep thunderstorms from tracking farther to the east. An isolated storm or tow is possible, however, not enough coverage and confidence to include in the forecast at this time. The flow is progressive and the upper trough and cold front moves through the northeast with showers ending by late Saturday night. A gusty northwest flow develops behind the cold front and blended in the 90th percentile of the NBM for both sustained winds and gusts late Saturday night and through Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cut off low and associated upper level trough push continue to move away from the area Sunday night as a building upper level ridge from the Great Lakes region approaches. At the surface, high pressure to the east builds into the region, pushing south of the area and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night. Upper level ridge axis moves over the area Tuesday, with a warm front lifting north of the area Tuesday night, followed pretty quickly by the cold front Wednesday. The passage of the cold front looks moisture starved, lacks a strong upper level trough, and with the surface low passing well north and west of the region in southern Quebec, much of the forcing with this front will be well north of the area. Therefore, not looking at a lot of precipitation. In fact, while there might be some light rain showers Tuesday night in association with the warm front, the passage of the cold front may move through dry. High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Wednesday night as another upper ridge moves through the northeast Thursday night, which allows the next frontal system to approach for the end of next week. As for temperatures, they will be above normal and on the increase from Monday through Wednesday, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs will be in the 70s away from the coast, and 60s along the coast. Temperatures fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected region-wide, with slightly warmer readings expected for Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front moves through this evening. Mainly IFR through this morning, improving to MVFR this afternoon, then VFR behind the cold front passage this evening. Showers possible at any given time through early this evening, but somewhat more likely before 12z and then again after 17z. TSTM also possible starting this afternoon for all but KISP/KBDR/KGON. S winds 10-15kt increase a little after 12z, veering S-SW this afternoon, increasing, and becoming more gusty. Winds shift W-NW behind the front with gusts 25-30kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Chance that KEWR and KTEB never lower to IFR, or that timing of IFR is off by 1-2 hours. Improvement back to MVFR and VFR may be off by 1-2 hours. Gusts may be only occasional during the morning hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Late tonight: VFR with W-NW gusts 25-30kt Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt. Wind gusts lower to near 20 kt in the evening and diminish overnight. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at night with possible showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon at night. Wind gusts up to 25 kt possible at times for afternoon into evening. Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... With the approach of low pressure moving across the eastern Great Lakes region late tonight into Saturday morning, and a warm front to the southwest, southerly winds will be increasing this evening, and ocean seas will be building. Have begun the ocean SCA a few hours earlier, 200 AM EDT, with the earlier increasing gusts and seas. Otherwise, the other advisories remain as previously posted. Southerly winds and gusts increase Saturday, and there is the potential of gusts approaching gale force east of Moriches Inlet for a few hours late Saturday morning into the afternoon, and near SCA levels on the central Long Island Sound. With the short period and low confidence will not post a gale of small craft for those zones. Winds and gusts will likely fall below advisory levels Saturday evening for several hours as the cold front moves through, however, ocean seas will likely remain elevated. Then SCA conditions develop on all the waters late Saturday night and through Sunday, and possibly into Sunday evening, behind a cold front, and advisories may be issued later. Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are possible over the ocean and south shore bays Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Waves build to 5 to 6 ft on the ocean waters during this time frame. Waves slowly diminish Tuesday night, falling below SCA criteria on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/MET NEAR TERM...JM/MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JC MARINE...JP/MET HYDROLOGY...JP/MET