105
FXUS61 KOKX 270055 CCA
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
855 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front passes through the area this evening. Meanwhile,
low pressure tracks slowly northeast across central and
northern New England. High pressure then builds in from the west
Sunday through Sunday night, and then across the area on
Monday. The high pushes off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night
into Tuesday, giving way to an approaching frontal system that
moves across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High
pressure briefly return returns Wednesday night into Thursday
before another frontal system impacts the area for the end of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Line of dissipating showers with embedded thunderstorms will
clear eastern LI and SE CT within the next hour. Line is
associated with a cold front and is working into a more stable
airmass. Thus, not expecting any strong activity from this
point on.
The cold front is expected to be east of the region by 03Z with
an end to the precipitation. With the cold front passage breaks
in the clouds are likely, with rapid drying aloft, with
scattered to a few strato cu remaining through tonight. Late
tonight winds and gusts increase and blended in the higher NBM
90th percentile. Lows will be near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A gusty cyclonic flow will persist through the day Sunday as a
the upper and surface lows remains over Maine and a upper ridge
and surface high remain to the west. Once again blended in the
higher 90th percentile NBM along with the bias corrected
CONSALL for gusts Sunday afternoon, and the 90th NBM for
sustained winds. During the peak mixing Sunday afternoon a few
sustained winds and occasional gusts will be near advisory
levels, however, with only a few reports expected have not
issued a winds advisory. The upper low and upper ridge begin to
track east late Sunday and into Sunday night, and with the loss
of peak mixing winds and gusts will be rather quickly
diminishing into Sunday evening. Temperatures Sunday and Sunday
night will be near seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Global models and their ensembles are in relatively good
agreement through the period with some frontal timing issues, in
particular at the end of next week. Operational GFS is fastest
again, similar to what we saw leading up to the most recent
frontal system. Thus, stayed close to NBM guidance with minor
adjustments to known biases.
An anomalously strong upper ridge (+1-2SD) from the mid section
of the country to the eastern seaboard at the start of the
forecast period will translate east through Tuesday. Southern
branch energy lifting along the backside of the ridge will link
up with a digging northern branch across central Canada, sending
a frontal system over top of the ridge. Warm front lifts across
the area late Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage
Wednesday morning. The latter of which looks uneventful with
weak forcing and little moisture. High pressure then briefly
follows Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday before
the front lifts north as a warm front late Thursday, followed by
a cold frontal passage Friday night. Once again, GFS is on the
faster side of the operational envelope. So the consenus
approach works best at this time. This is the stronger of the
systems with a good chance of showers, possibly thunder. The
latter of which will send the warm upper ridge out into the
western Atlantic at the end of the week.
As for temperatures, they will be above normal through the mid
week, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs will be 75-80 away
from the coast, and 60s along the coast. Temperatures fall back
to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected region-wide, with
warmer readings expected for Friday ahead of the next frontal
system. NBM box and whisker plots show very little spread
through Tuesday, but then larger spreads mid week on with some
frontal timing issues. Tuesday could be warmer, but a subsidence
inversion looks to limit the full potential at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cold front moves across eastern terminals, east of NYC
terminals, this evening. High pressure builds in thereafter
through Sunday.
Line of showers and thunderstorms moved across KBDR and KISP.
This will be entering KGON over the next hour before 02Z.
Otherwise, mainly dry conditions for the TAF period.
Outside of IFR to LIFR at KGON this evening, some lingering MVFR
is possible this evening after the cold front passage. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions expected.
Winds are going to become more NW and increase to near 15-20 kt much
of the TAF period. Gusts near 25 to 30 kt expected tonight into
Sunday. Some peaks to near 35 kt are expected Sunday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Peak gusts expected Sunday afternoon. Peak gusts could
occasionally be 2-4 kt higher than in TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR. NW wind gusts lower to near 20 kt in the
evening and diminish overnight.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at night with possible showers.
SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon at night. Wind gusts up to
25 kt possible at times for afternoon into evening.
Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Thursday: VFR during day. MVFR possible with a chance of
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With a strong and gusty SW flow ahead of an approaching cold
front gusts have been at or above 25 kt across the forecast
waters, and have kept the advisory as issued. As the cold front
moves through, and an hour or two after passage, gusts likely
drop off below advisory levels, then will increase in the
northwest flow behind the front later tonight, as cold advection
increases. Winds will remain at or near 25 kt on the non ocean
waters into Sunday evening and extended the advisory until 1000
PM EDT. And for the ocean waters both gusts and seas will remain
at advisory into late Sunday night, and extended the advisory
until 300 AM EDT. However, conditions may be improving earlier
across the western ocean waters.
High pressure building over the waters early next week will
result in below SCA levels through Tuesday. Wind gusts around 25
kt are possible over the ocean and south shore bays Tuesday
night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Waves build
to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean waters during this time frame. Waves
slowly diminish late Tuesday night, falling below SCA criteria
on Wednesday. High pressure then briefly follows into Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW